350zCommtech's Account Talk

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Birchtree said:
Don't worry - gosh 350 is my butt buddy.
Click to expand...

Do I sound worried or for that matter looked worried to you?? Yea I might have to sell the property in Key Biscayne. Some rat bastard only offered 2.14M. I might have been born at night but it wasn't last night. LOL :D

white
 
Sir, you so funny. This is my kind of market - the more fear and the deeper the water at the bottom of the well, the happier I am. Keeping the longer term perspective and dreaming about all those dividends that will be rolling in during August and September. Just hope we don't rocket up so fast now that we got a reasonable bottom. I did place a bet for a +343 points for 8/1.
 
I like the sound of rebounding off the 200 DMA but for some reason I don't sense true capitulation. Almost like to many people see this as a buying op... as if the bleeding is done... too obvious. Where's Tom's psychological graph of fear, euphoria, etc?
 
fedgolfer said:
I like the sound of rebounding off the 200 DMA but for some reason I don't sense true capitulation. Almost like to many people see this as a buying op... as if the bleeding is done... too obvious. Where's Tom's psychological graph of fear, euphoria, etc?
Click to expand...


I agree and it looks like it's testing the 200 DMA again. Let's see if it holds again.
 
By my chart 1449 is the 200 dsma and I'm watching the stream from Scottrade this morning. Wow, just can break one way or the other.

Oops, as I write this it just broke to the down. Look out below!
 
we may not get a clear enough sign till after the IFT. Now, with the panic sending it red, it feels like capitulation. Will the big boys step up in the afternoon? Bear Stearns wants blood on the streets... they sold at the top and are still claiming bankruptcy for 2 hedge funds -- thieves.
 
fedgolfer said:
we may not get a clear enough sign till after the IFT. Now, with the panic sending it red, it feels like capitulation. Will the big boys step up in the afternoon? Bear Stearns wants blood on the streets... they sold at the top and are still claiming bankruptcy for 2 hedge funds -- thieves.
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Yup, and one more last night. Noticed they halted redemptions? Those investors are screwed. 2-3 weeks from now we'll probably hear about how this third fund is now worthless.
 
Show-me said:
By my chart 1449 is the 200 dsma and I'm watching the stream from Scottrade this morning. Wow, just can break one way or the other.

Oops, as I write this it just broke to the down. Look out below!
Click to expand...

It's back above it again. IMHO, dip buyers are being sucked in by the 200 DMA. This feels just like yesterday. And we all know what happened yesterday afternoon. For all the folks that are still in it, I hope I'm wrong.
 
Goldman hedge fund reportedly hit hard

By Shawn Langlois, MarketWatch
Last Update: 12:17 PM ET Aug 11, 2007

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Goldman Sachs Group's $8 billion Global Alpha hedge fund has fallen 26% so far this year, a retreat that could lead skittish investors to cash out, according to a Friday report citing unnamed sources.
Goldman's biggest hedge fund has shed almost 40% since July 31, 2006 while the Standard & Poor's 500 Index has risen 16%, Bloomberg reported.
The fund's decline has eaten away at fees paid to Goldman , which pocketed $700 million from the fund after its 40% surge in 2005.
The poor performance could prompt redemptions. Withdrawals for the fund's $6.2 billion offshore version came to $394 million in June, an unidentified investor told Bloomberg. That was almost triple the $142 million that flowed into the fund.

There is an August 15 deadline for Global Alpha investors who want to cash out, according to the report. This is the latest evidence of a near $2-trillion industry in turmoil. Two hedge funds run by investment bank Bear Stearns were almost completely wiped out earlier this year after losing more than $1 billion, partly from leveraged subprime mortgage bets that went awry. Several other funds have been slammed by the ensuing credit markets crisis.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={4DF5F778-3D4F-476C-A228-E804DA0811BB}
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Warning: Note the August 15 deadline.

I read somewhere that most hedge funds have the same deadline. If too many investors want to cash out, some hedge funds might be forced to raise cash by selling anything they hold. Some selling might have already been done in anticipation of this deadline, but I'm not taking that chance. I'm not going to be in the market on Wednesday.
 
GS has a conference call this AM to calm the jitters. I'm guessing we'll see a major pop with the top 10 holdings in XLF today. There has beem some major accumulation in XLF... probably means the financials are working off their low. But I agree, 350, doesn't mean all green days from here.

http://www.kingcambo.com/traders/897821

great buy signals on R2k, OIH, GLD, Nas, DIA, SPY... basically, great time to buy.

http://www.kingcambo.com/traders/897822
 
fedgolfer said:
GS has a conference call this AM to calm the jitters. I'm guessing we'll see a major pop with the top 10 holdings in XLF today. There has beem some major accumulation in XLF... probably means the financials are working off their low. But I agree, 350, doesn't mean all green days from here.

http://www.kingcambo.com/traders/897821

great buy signals on R2k, OIH, GLD, Nas, DIA, SPY... basically, great time to buy.

http://www.kingcambo.com/traders/897822
Click to expand...

Hey fedgolfer,

Have you noticed the similarities between GS's situation and situation last month with Bear Sterns? I do. Bear Sterns tried to save one of the funds with some money(1.6B?), but it didn't work. We later found out that both funds were worth ZER0.

IMO, Throwing money at these funds will only buy them time. The only way for them to turn around is if mortage delinquencies start to decline. But with the leveraging in these funds, they might have only a month or two.
 
... yeah, tons of similarities. like kingcambo was saying, distribution at the top, bankrupt funds, sec investigation... but the biggie to act on now is accumulation at the bottom (IF it is the bottom). I've had succes swing trading GS and I like where it is on the charts now. I have a hunch that GS will cover stuff up more efficiently then BSC. Since buying and holding for more than a couple days in these is too risky, I think I'm going to buy just above the 5 day lows on GS if they bounce up on support.

But, yeah... rats in the kitchen, but they're the ones calling the plays.
 
... what if the supposed accumulation in the Financials the past several days, was really further distribution? After GS fell below support, it looks like 140 is in the cards if 170 doesn't hold. And tomorrow is get-out-of-dodge Wednesday. If XLF is supposedly a leading market indicator in this cycle, and GS and BSC seem to be influencing XLF... ok, enough doom and gloom.

http://biz.yahoo.com/tm/070813/16176.html?.v=2
(article from Monday)
 
fedgolfer said:
... what if the supposed accumulation in the Financials the past several days, was really further distribution? After GS fell below support, it looks like 140 is in the cards if 170 doesn't hold. And tomorrow is get-out-of-dodge Wednesday. If XLF is supposedly a leading market indicator in this cycle, and GS and BSC seem to be influencing XLF... ok, enough doom and gloom.
Click to expand...


Today's big bad news was that a money market fund is in trouble. I thought these were suppose to be safe. Somebody better tell Mr. Paulson that it's spreading...But I'm sure he knows that. Just look at the Fed injections.

Wednesday is going to be very interesting. If you're an investor in a hedge fund, what would you do?

Anybody that thinks this is a normal correction, needs to get their head out of the sand.
 
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