350zCommtech's Account Talk

[Braveheart]

Good luck, I'm still looking for decision coin.

I might drop the L2040 and put that in the C for a 55 C Fund 45 S Fund wondering the I could drag all the L funds tomorrow if the market is down

 

[Braveheart]

Good luck, I'm still looking for decision coin.

Ended 50 C 50 S

 

[Braveheart]

The reports today were bad yet the market has not tanked so I see strength there. I said on another thread if those reports came out last month we would be down 500 points but the market is stronger. I think most bad news is priced in and we now see a spike on any good news.

So now it's good or semi-good news 400 point gain / bad news is a slight loss.

 

[Guest2]

Wednesday, March 26:

• Earnings: Oracle(ORCL), Paychex (PAYX)
• Economic Data: February Durable Goods Orders; February New Home Sales; Weekly Crude Inventories (week ending March 22)
• Events: None
• Conferences: Credit Suisse Leveraged Finance Conference and JP Morgan Gaming and Lodging Conference
• Fed Speakers: Chicago Fed President Evans addresses economists in NY (12:00 PM ET) and Dallas Fed President Fisher discusses the Fed and the regional economy in TX (1:00 PM ET)

Your Breakdown is Sooooooooooooo helpful. Thanks for the Info !
I did a cut and run to Bonds today. I'm trying to decide a Long
Term (3 month) strategy due to restrictions. I got 2 days to decide.
Thanks Again!

 

[nsurf9]

Great IFT consideration stuff!! Only, I can only transfer to G. My guess is probably any of the equities (C,S,I) will be good for a little while. Good news will give some pop. Bad news will keep us on the railroad tracks for some recoverable losses a little longer.

 

[The_Technician]

The reports today were bad yet the market has not tanked so I see strength there. I said on another thread if those reports came out last month we would be down 500 points but the market is stronger. I think most bad news is priced in and we now see a spike on any good news.

So now it's good or semi-good news 400 point gain / bad news is a slight loss.

I see an end of the first quarter.

Carnac

 

[Megansh]

I represent two of the 549 TSp Participants- ( my wife and I ) who are being shut off from electronic trading in a few days from now.....My two senators and congress people have not been able to help me at this point... I am a bit disappointed at the supposed 3000 day traders who all but did shut down their daily trading because the TSp did threaten this unconstitutional action upon Federal Workers...... I want to go on record that I am proud of the 547 other brave TSP members who did not cowtow to the Fascist regime at the TSp Board- (Greg Long and Tracey Ray )...

This TSP talk forum is great ...but what are we all going to be talking about when we only can make two moves from now on monthly ??

The TSP Board worried about a mere $ 15 Million dollars in 2007 trading costs increases..... yet $ 2 Billion dollars were lost in the overall TSP Fund's assets in February alone...... I say let's call for their resignations...



MIke in NH

 

[tspgo_com]

I represent two of the 549 TSp Participants- ( my wife and I ) who are being shut off from electronic trading in a few days from now.....My two senators and congress people have not been able to help me at this point... I am a bit disappointed at the supposed 3000 day traders who all but did shut down their daily trading because the TSp did threaten this unconstitutional action upon Federal Workers...... I want to go on record that I am proud of the 547 other brave TSP members who did not cowtow to the Fascist regime at the TSp Board- (Greg Long and Tracey Ray )...

This TSP talk forum is great ...but what are we all going to be talking about when we only can make two moves from now on monthly ??

The TSP Board worried about a mere $ 15 Million dollars in 2007 trading costs increases..... yet $ 2 Billion dollars were lost in the overall TSP Fund's assets in February alone...... I say let's call for their resignations...



MIke in NH

Let me join you and your wife as member of the 547 Club. I have to admit I was influenced by the widely preached believe that they could not do it. Of course, I don't have anybody to blame but myself because I knew better.

Although this limitation will take all the excitement out of managing my account, everything is not lost. Following my signals, I have a pretty good idea at least 5 days in advance when I should be getting in and out of a position.

After the limitation kicks in I will be mailing (regular mail) my IFT's at least four days before the day I expect the IFT to be effective (my post office said it would take approximately three days for the mail to be delivered). Then I will mail one the same request daily until the I see the IFT executed.

For example, If my system tells me that I should be 100% I on April 4, 2008, I will mail the first request (100% I) on April 1, then I would follow that request with another one requesting the same thing on the 2nd, on the 3rd and on the 4th. I will apply the same strategy to get out of a position.

The reason for chain is to minimize the possibility of "lost in the mail" or in case they hold my first request more that two days to process it. The cost should be around two dollars per IFT. (For first class stamps).

Any other ideas out there?

 

[Asylum]

Not over yet....


http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aIGeO4anyk.c&refer=worldwide#

Wall Street May Face $460 Bln in Losses, Goldman Says (Update1)
By Zhao Yidi

March 25 (Bloomberg) -- Wall Street banks, brokerages and hedge funds may report $460 billion in credit losses from the collapse of the subprime mortgage market, or almost four times the amount already disclosed, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Profits will continue to wane, other analysts said.

 

[350zCommTech]

350z, what fund(s) are you in now and are you contemplating any move today?

I'm in F fund. Staying put.

 

[Steadygain]

"The implication: Institutions still have written off less than half of the losses associated with the bursting of the credit bubble," they wrote in a note to clients. "

This is what honestly puzzles me; and all the more the previous posts reflecting how damaged the financial sector will become when the masses start going after "their money". Now I'm feeling like an idiot for missing the recent rally WHEN I WAS SO CONVINCED THESE OBVIOUS TRUTHS WOULD COME TO LIGHT. Of course I expected the 4% gain response with the rate cut - but when the Markets went way down the following day I thought it had to be "the reality of knowing the weakness was still very strong". At this point I give up trying to understand why the Markets move the way they do. If we go on a REAL DOWNWARD TREND - we should hit a new bottom and I see that as the real bottom. For now I guess anything is possible.

Would really like to know if most of you see the bottom as going deeper than the last low - and do you see this happening by the end of next week?

 

[Reactive1]

Steady,

Right now my reading would be a strong up-trend, perhaps as high as 1400 on the S&P believe it or not, perhaps just in the range of 1370 or 1390. But it will all be taken away faster than it showed up at some point and drop dramatically IMO. The timing is what we can't know with great certainty, possibly within weeks, although I think it will play out longer. The problem is every time we get the pieces in place to get the market to do what it NEEDS to do to flush itself clean, the government steps in and puts the finger in the dyke. Still, there is always that time that comes, like in January when the realities get beyond the governments ability to "fix" it, or at least they don't have an immediate answer. But it's a situation that requires constant watch...you can't ALWAYS be a bear nor ALWAYS a bull IMO. I think it will fall lower than 1270 personally.

 

[Corepuncher]

Steady,

Right now my reading would be a strong up-trend, perhaps as high as 1400 on the S&P believe it or not, perhaps just in the range of 1370 or 1390. But it will all be taken away faster than it showed up at some point and drop dramatically IMO. The timing is what we can't know with great certainty, possibly within weeks, although I think it will play out longer. The problem is every time we get the pieces in place to get the market to do what it NEEDS to do to flush itself clean, the government steps in and puts the finger in the dyke. Still, there is always that time that comes, like in January when the realities get beyond the governments ability to "fix" it, or at least they don't have an immediate answer. But it's a situation that requires constant watch...you can't ALWAYS be a bear nor ALWAYS a bull IMO. I think it will fall lower than 1270 personally.

The bigger they are the harder they fall. I'm predicting a near 100 pt one-day drop in the S&P this year! :toung:

 

[Steadygain]

Thanks everyone!! I sincerely appreciate it.

Was honestly beginning to question my independent assessment, which fortunately seems pretty solid after all.

Anyway - GL to everyone - great opportunities will avail themselves

 

[350zCommTech]

LEHMAN!!!!

 

[Steadygain]

Note BARCLAYS $3.25B writedown for 2007. That's the TSP investment manager. Are our funds in danger? T. Ray states that Barclay's must put up collateral worth 105% of assets...105% of zero is ZERO.

My friend,
I certainly appreciate the vast amount of information you gather for the whole MB - and would honestly admit that most of the data I read and ponder on are hugely based on your posts.

BUT PLEASE - PLEASE DO NOT MAKE COMMENTS LIKE THIS.

It is tough enough trying to understand how in the world the Markets are not tumbling - what is possibly keeping them in the green? And so I patiently wait on the side lines waiting for the downtrend to take a major dive - fully expecting a very large reduction - so days like this week are aggravating because they make no sense.

Well anyway - if things turn out as I expect them to - THE LAST THING I NEED IS TO FEAR MY TSP ACCOUNT DISAPPEARING. I don't believe there is any possibility of that happening short of a global collapse - and that is not happening - we are simply going through the standard correction (which is long over due).

 

[Steadygain]

Thank you. Very well put.

I have to admit that I see our dollar shrinking down to NOTHING - all the debt that is mounting and where does all this money come from to get rid of the debt. What you are expressing is just a drop in the bucket. Unfortunately - that is why I am so convinced that the worst of times are yet to come - and to come this year.

Anyway - as always - I really do appreciate your input.

 

[DCguy]

I'm sorry guys, but I disagree and am disturbed at your constant down attitude..I'm not trying to argue or be disrespectful...But you guys are in such a funk, that you can't even take advantage and appreciate the good trend we're in..And it will continue with natural corrections along the way (that is a given) ...The past week has been phenomenal and totally in line with the technical norms again..But you still are looking the proverbial gift horse in the mouth..So when some say they don't understand the up days and it don't make any sense, it just bugs me...reminds me of my Mother in law..she ain't happy unless it's bad news, and looks for only the bad news..I don't get it

Okay..nuff said

I agree 100%. You guys stay in F. My money's been in 100% stock for the past few weeks and I got at least 5-7% gain. After hearing bad news after bad news after bad news after...., the Dow's been still going up at least 3% every week. I expect the upward trend to continue in the 2nd quarter. and Tuesday's good for the market.

 

[Asylum]

Okay..nuff said

 

[Braveheart]

Well I finally decided to go back to 100% G Fund at the close of business today. Had a good ride in the S Fund and C Fund this week but it's just a matter of time so I waited to see the reports today if they were even just OK I would have stayed but they were not. This market is strong in spite of all the bad news. I won't even play the F Fund now because there is no room for gains basically.

I think the best fund we have right now is the S Fund in this market so when I get back in it will be the S Fund.

Ironically on the Bear Cave thread before the week began I predicted a 500 point gain for the Market and with a better report today it may have been a 600 point gain. - Braveheart :nuts: