350zCommtech's Account Talk

[Show-me]

Hi 350,
Great post, personally watching all same above. One slight mod possible, I think Show-me re-created Oscars TRAN MA-line (as the 160). Link follows, from his post. Agree though, one key to watch closely:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRAN&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p41451426749
Appreciate one other opinion - on the F-Fund (the recent, & seeming foul-smelling big Fed actions here especially on Thurs!).

170 could be it also as I have tweeked all around that range.

 

[350zCommTech]

Hi 350,
Great post, personally watching all same above. One slight mod possible, I think Show-me re-created Oscars TRAN MA-line (as the 160). Link follows, from his post. Agree though, one key to watch closely:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TRAN&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p41451426749
Appreciate one other opinion - on the F-Fund (the recent, & seeming foul-smelling big Fed actions here especially on Thurs!).

Interesting, 160 looks good also, but it doesn't fit Wednesday's pop and drop. 170 looks better IMO.

As for the F fund, yields on TNX looks to be getting closer to a bottom. Perhaps 3-4 more down days for TNX. As you can see, it's also approaching Jan 22nd's low. It needs to break that to continue down.

I guess it depends on which camp you're in. If you think the Feds have managed to save the financials and the markets have made a turn, as the charts suggests, then yields will turn up soon, so the F fund is not the place to be.

On the other hand, I don't believe the Feds have fixed anything yet. Notice how they keep creative new lending facilities just about every other week? The nasty exodus in Gold suggests more hedge funds are in trouble, similar to what happen to Carlyle Capital. Also the drop in bond yields on yesterday while the stock market was up suggested traders wanted to be safe.

 

[Show-me]

Hey Z,

See this headline. It would be nice to form a bottom but at this point the only good news is to the financials bailout. Once this sinks in I think we go lower.

NEW YORK: Standard & Poor's Corp., in a continuing sign of loss of confidence in investment banks' eroding profitability, put Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. on negative outlook on Friday.
Although the rating agency didn't change ratings on Goldman's AA- and Lehman Brothers' A+ senior debt, it brought its view of the likelihood of a precipitous decline in profits at the firms during the next few quarters to the same negative levels it had previously assigned to Merrill Lynch & Co. and Morgan Stanley.
The outlook changes are appropriate in spite of the fact that recent actions by the Federal Reserve have instilled confidence in the capital markets, S&P added. A negative outlook implies a one-in-three likelihood of a rating downgrade over an intermediate period of about two years, S&P said.
"We believe that negative rating outlooks are broadly appropriate for the independent securities firms, reflecting the potential for a more substantial decline in profitability from capital market activities," S&P said in a report whose principal authors are Managing Director Scott Sprinzen and analyst Diane Hinton. "Our current expectation is that net revenues could decline 20 percent-30 percent year-on-year," adjusting for write-downs.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/03/21/business/NA-FIN-US-Credit-Rating-Outlook.php

 

[350zCommTech]

Hey Z,

See this headline. It would be nice to form a bottom but at this point the only good news is to the financials bailout. Once this sinks in I think we go lower.

S&P released its report on Good Friday, when U.S. markets were closed and brokerage firms were operating with skeleton staffs. S&P did not deliberately correlate the negative news on its paying clients to avoid riling the markets, an official said, but rather felt it important to publicize its revised views as soon as possible after analyzing firms' fiscal first-quarter results. Goldman and Lehman reported Tuesday and Morgan Stanley followed on Wednesday.

The above is from the last paragraph in that article. Why wasn't this reported on Thursday?

These rating agencies are a joke. Our financial markets are a joke. I feel like we are being harvested. The downgrades of BSC did not come until they blew up. Just like with Enron, shareholders and employees, except the CEOs, lost everything.

While the Feds are busy bailing out the thieves on Wall Street, our country is in a recession.

Tent city in LA.

 

[Show-me]

HARVESTED??? I love that! Anybody remember Soylent Green?

One of my favorites and 2022 ain't that far away.

 

[airlift]

I can't forget it. Scary prospect. History shows that human beings are capable of the most extraordinary and heroic acts, but also capable of the most inhumane conduct. That film apears to have been the creative product of an author proccupied with the future of the world as we know it. In a world of instability, scarcity, an overflowing growth in population, and diminishing food reserves, they found a tragic solution in controlling the population and feeding them transformed human protein as a source of sustenance (without their knowledge or consent).

In my opinion, that scenario is one of many apocalyptic works, including "1984" and "Brave New World". These works keep very much alive the reason why liberty and freedom are critically important. In times of desperation, many governments turn to becoming dictatorships as solutions to the problems. This is one reason why human and natural resources must be managed with wisdom and extraordinary care. I know that when our security is genuinely threatened some measure of freedom has to be temporarily curtailed or suspended in order to deal with the emergencies. I accept that emergency state of affairs, but only as a very temporary "ad hoc" measure. Most important, as rational beings must be aware of the necessity of maintaining the check and balances built into our Constitution by the Founders of the United States. We must protect our democracy and our way of life. The apocalyptic scenarios explain why our dear United States still is the political Beacon of Freedom and holds the blueprints of the best hope for peace and security in the world.

 

[Birchtree]

My friend, please vote McCain to continue prosperity. This is not a paid political ad.

 

[Silverbird]

My friend, please vote McCain to continue prosperity. This is not a paid political ad.

Unfortunately I can't recommend voting for McCain (and I voted him on his last run) - he has to keep borrowing to pay for the Iraq and Afganastan wars because he has sworn not to raise taxes and make the Bush tax credits (expire 2011) permanent. It's borrowing that's ruining our economy. And we've cut the drug, toys, and food inspectors too low now so all this nasty deadly crap is coming in from China and the infrastructure is starting to go so cutting the Federal budget is no longer sustainable. If we contine the way we are going pretty soon no one's going to want to buy our debt instruments and if we cannot keep up the debt service the dollar's gonna fall like a rock instead of going through a steady decline. And if we have another Katrina type disaster, we aren't ready, and won't be if we continue to cut the Federal budget and increasing our payments on more off budget debt.

 

[Silverbird]

netherlands is already refusing to exchange dollars.

Well, actually you can exchange $ at a bank, like most foreign currencies. It's just we are so used to having the primo currency that is taken at major department stores around the world.

 

[FogSailing]

OK: Here's what we all do..

1. Take three deep breaths...

2. Recognize that we weren't focused on all the crap in the world while we did that..

3. Take three more breaths...Feel better...I do ...

4. OK: Time to start fixing our problems starting with energy..

Good luck all!

FS

 

[Braveheart]

Z....

Sounds nuts :nuts: but if the Market drops tomorrow looking at C Fund. The housing report tomorrow could be a good last day for the F Fund for awhile - Thoughts !!!! Thanks Braveheart

 

[350zCommTech]

Z....

Sounds nuts :nuts: but if the Market drops tomorrow looking at C Fund. The housing report tomorrow could be a good last day for the F Fund for awhile - Thoughts !!!! Thanks Braveheart

That actually sounds like a good idea. Let's the market cooperates tomorrow.

 

[Braveheart]

That actually sounds like a good idea. Let's the market cooperates tomorrow.

Z.....

I went 70 C Fund & 30 S Fund.

I look at the I fund and the problem is for the cost and looking at Japan and it's problems with the Yen it could hurt the I Fund right now. So going on my instincts I would say the F Fund is out right now and the I is a big risk.

 

[Braveheart]

Z.....

I went 70 C Fund & 30 S Fund.

I look at the I fund and the problem is for the cost and looking at Japan and it's problems with the Yen it could hurt the I Fund right now. So going on my instincts I would say the F Fund is out right now and the I is a big risk.

Check that Z I just went 100% F Fund. I have seen this movie before so if it's a trap I won't get caught in it this time. The market is up way to fast IMO

 

[DCguy]

Dow's now over 12600 and still going up. We are in a recession, but I dont see any banks closing doors yet and I still think $10 BSC share is still pretty cheap.

 

[350zCommTech]

Huge +FV in the I fund.

 

[tspgo_com]

Huge +FV in the I fund.

No to sure about that! The DOW is up 1.71% and the S&P up 1.77%. I don't expect an additional .50% that would trigger the +FV. I am looking (and hoping) that these levels will hold until 4:00 pm and to be compensated tomorrow with the OSM follow up.

I would not be upset if it works out the way you see it.

Good luck!

 

[fabijo]

Anybody want to take bets that the guys forming the new mortgage company already bought a boatload of BSC at $2 a share - and JPM is helping them out by upping the ante on the buyback?

Where the HELL is the SEC, FBI, etc.? If I can put this together, why can't THEY?

Yup. Completely ridiculous. Us little peons should never think we have anything figured out.

 

[Braveheart]

Hey Z:

I went 45% S Fund 45% C Fund & 10% L2040 Fund for a change thoughts last 5 minutes - Braveheart !!!!

 

[350zCommTech]

Hey Z:

I went 45% S Fund 45% C Fund & 10% L2040 Fund for a change thoughts last 5 minutes - Braveheart !!!!

Good luck, I'm still looking for decision coin.