350zCommtech's Account Talk

[350zCommTech]

SAN FRANCISCO (MarketWatch) -- Thornburg Mortgage Inc. has had to come up with more than $300 million in cash since Valentine's Day to back troubled mortgage-related securities, according to a company regulatory filing. If it can't meet future margin calls, Santa Fe, N.M.-based Thornburg warned that it may have to start selling some assets to raise cash.

It's going to ZERO!:laugh:

 

[350zCommTech]

At 11:40AM:
NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks extended losses, sending the Dow and the S&P 500 down more than 1 percent, after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said there probably will be bank failures as the housing slump takes its toll.

GO BIG BEN!!!:laugh:

WOW! That is huge.......LOL!!!!:laugh:

 

[350zCommTech]

Look at all the room below the 20dma for the TNX. A close below the 20dma today and tomorrow, could mean big trouble for the market and big gains for the F fund. I'm staying in F.

TNX managed to close under the 20dma despite stocks rallying near the F fund cut-off time. Another follow through tomorrow and the F fund could be in for a nice ride, similar to what happened after the Xmas rally. The problem of course is that we know the PPT and the "Dip buyers of the World" are out there. Besides that, support for the market is not too far away. What F funders really need is a BIG 300+ point down day tomorrow. If that happens, supports could be broken. If we get that tomorrow, I will be staying in the F fund for Monday, despite the G paying on Monday.

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[350zCommTech]

350, Here it comes, just as you predicted.

SAN FRANCISCO --By Alistair Barr, MarketWatchLast update: 7:08 p.m. EST Feb. 28, 2008-- American International Group reported a $5.29 billion fourth-quarter net loss late Thursday after the insurance giant took a big charge related to the estimated market value of credit derivatives. AIG shares fell 2.9% to $48.70 during late trading after the results. The net loss was $5.29 billion, or $2.08 a share, vs. net income of $3.44 billion, or $1.31 a share, a year earlier, the company said. The adjusted net loss for the fourth quarter of 2007 was $3.20 billion, or $1.25 a share. The fourth-quarter result included a pre-tax charge of roughly $11.12 billion from a net unrealized market valuation loss related to the super senior credit default swap portfolio of the company's AIG Financial Products Corp. derivatives unit. The problems are centered on collateralized debt obligations, or CDOs. These complex securities are partly backed by mortgage securities. As house prices have fallen and as delinquencies and foreclosures surge, the market value of these securities have dropped sharply. AIG Financial Products has a large exposure to these securities. The unit's portfolio of credit derivatives had a net notional exposure of $505 billion at the end of September. More than $62 billion of that was related to CDOs, mainly backed by subprime U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities, according to Fitch Ratings. AIG Financial Products sold guarantees on CDOs, using credit-default swaps, a type of derivative-based insurance that pays out in the event of a default. It sold "super senior" credit-default swaps that guaranteed higher-quality parts of CDOs. But as the credit crunch widened, the market value of even the best parts of some CDOs has declined. The complexity of these securities and a slump in trading activity have made them tricky to value, further adding to concerns. Without certain adjustments used in previous estimates, the market value of AIG's super senior portfolio of credit-default swaps would have dropped by $5.2 billion in 2007 through Nov. 30, the insurer estimated on Feb. 11. That's up from a previous loss estimate of $1.6 billion.

CDOs are scams. CDS(credit default swaps) = insurance on CDOs.

CDS's = scams of scams. LOL!!!:laugh:


Yes, the feds stood by. Yes, people lied about their income. Yes, banks and mortgage lenders took advantage of people. And Yes, rating agencies put AAA on everything, for a price . But, Wall Street created these "innovative financial instruments".

This is why I want this market to crash and these IB to go BK.

 

[Tomncath]

The unit's portfolio of credit derivatives had a net notional exposure of $505 billion at the end of September. More than $62 billion of that was related to CDOs, mainly backed by subprime U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities, according to Fitch Ratings. AIG Financial Products sold guarantees on CDOs, using credit-default swaps, a type of derivative-based insurance that pays out in the event of a default. It sold "super senior" credit-default swaps that guaranteed higher-quality parts of CDOs.

This isn't the end of it, just the tip of the iceberg for AIG...who's next?

 

[Show-me]

I watched Treasury Sec. Paulson last night speaking at a some economic forum in Chicago and I liked some of what he said. No bail outs! Told the lender to suck it up and take your loses and improve your lending standard, in so many words. I was pleasantly shocked.

 

[Tomncath]

I watched Treasury Sec. Paulson last night speaking at a some economic forum in Chicago and I liked some of what he said. No bail outs! Told the lender to suck it up and take your loses and improve your lending standard, in so many words. I was pleasantly shocked.

Now, if we can only get Bernanke to NOT lower rates anymore maybe we can do something with the dollar....

 

[Show-me]

Now, if we can only get Bernanke to NOT lower rates anymore maybe we can do something with the dollar....

Agreed! Interesting that we did not get a bigger rally after Dr. Strangmath basically guaranteed another rate cut. The currency market priced it in but the equity market did not. I wonder if the comments about some banks failing is just a scratch on the surface of a larger collapse. AIG surprised a ton of people last night for one and a ton of lower guidance from others.

 

[poolman]

Warren Buffet will be Chearleading on CNBC for three hours Monday morning.
Last time he did this the market was up Big for the day.

 

[350zCommTech]

I watched Treasury Sec. Paulson last night speaking at a some economic forum in Chicago and I liked some of what he said. No bail outs! Told the lender to suck it up and take your loses and improve your lending standard, in so many words. I was pleasantly shocked.

He's full of ****. He is just talking out of both sides of his mouth. Just look at the raising FNM and FRE's caps.

 

[350zCommTech]

F fund looking even better - no bailout talk ben, please!

Wow! Big gap down on TNX and were already looking at +5 cents for the F fund.

 

[350zCommTech]

LOL!!!!:laugh:

UBS sees writedowns hitting $600 billion


The toll of the mortgage mess keeps rising. Analysts at UBS (UBS) said Friday they expect financial firms worldwide to take writedowns totaling $600 billion in the wake of the breakdown of debt markets that started in June. The comment comes a day after insurance giant AIG (AIG) took an $11 billion hit on its portfolio of credit default swaps and government-sponsored mortgage lender Freddie Mac (FRE) took $3.1 billion in writedowns on its credit guarantee and derivatives holdings. UBS itself was hit with a $14 billion writedown on mortgage-related securities earlier this month. All told, big companies have taken $160 billion in writedowns since the credit crunch took hold last summer, Bloomberg reports, and UBS analysts expect the pain to get much worse. “Leveraged risk positions are a cancer in this market, wrote UBS analyst Geraud Charpin, “and the sooner it is treated the better.”http://dailybriefing.blogs.fortune.cnn.com/2008/02/29/ubs-sees-writedowns-hitting-600-billion/

 

[350zCommTech]

No new business but hey, we're still AAA!

ROFLMAO!!!!! :laugh::laugh::laugh:

MBIA Writing `Very Little' New Business, Predicts More Losses
By Shannon D. Harrington

Feb. 29 (Bloomberg) -- MBIA Inc., the world's largest bond insurer, is writing ``very little'' new business amid the credit- market turmoil and debt-rating reviews, and the company expects losses on some its existing policies to rise significantly.
``The demand for our product is the lowest it has been, and we are writing very little new business,'' the Armonk, New York- based company said in a filing today with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
MBIA also has observed ``deterioration'' in prime or near- prime home-equity loan securities it backed and may see loss payments amounting to a ``significant portion'' of the reserves it set aside, according to the filing.
The bond insurer, which has been at risk of losing its top AAA debt rating because of a decline in the value of mortgage- linked securities it guaranteed, reported a record $1.9 billion net loss for 2007.
To contact the reporters on this story: Shannon D. Harrington in New York at sharrington6@bloomberg.net .http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMn.pqtQKBq8&refer=home

 

[350zCommTech]

Staying in F. Will post charts when I have time.

 

[350zCommTech]

F fund is looking very good. Look at the MACD.

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[350zCommTech]

Downgrades needs to come now! We need the truth to come out. Bankruptcies need to happen. This pyramid scheme needs to crash NOW! After the pain, we can then start to rebuild. Trying to keep the status quo will only make the crash much worst.

Btw, I believe we have another congressional bond hearing next week, March 5th. The F fund is where I want to be during this hearing.

Billions of dollars of sales slam muni bonds

Fri Feb 29, 2008 12:28pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Tender option bond programs on Friday were selling "multiple billions" of dollars of U.S. municipal bonds, a money manager said, which is accelerating a market slide that experts call the worst in decades.

Prices have dropped for the past 12 days, partly due to the problems borrowers and investors are having with short-term municipal markets.
Two of these markets, auction rate and variable demand note obligations, have frozen because investors fear some bond insurers that backed this debt are no longer credit-worthy as a result of their bad bets on subprime mortgage investments.

These dislocations have hurt tender option bond trusts, which buy long-term muni bonds and finance them by selling floating notes. But now they are losing money -- or are about to -- because their borrowing costs have skyrocketed.

At the same time, the value of their long-term municipal bonds has plunged.
"Tender option bond selling is in the multiple billions," said Gary Pollack, a managing director at Deutsche Bank Private Wealth Management. Tender option bond programs are created by both hedge funds and dealers, and they typically are highly leveraged, which intensifies their influence on the market.
Dealers have been struggling to cope with the flood of supplies from these trusts because they must save their cash.

Banks and dealers have turned into cash-hoarders because they face billion-dollar write-downs from the sinking subprime sector and need to dress up their balance sheets because they are so close to end of the financial quarter.
And municipal bond issuers, from states to cities to agencies, are abandoning short-term muni markets and transforming these issues into long-term debt. This source of new supply -- expected to hit soon -- also is hurting prices.
(Reporting by Joan Gralla; Editing by Andrea Ricci)http://www.reuters.com/article/businessNews/idUSN2920801820080229

 

[presskh]

Downgrades needs to come now! We need the truth to come out. Bankruptcies need to happen. This pyramid scheme needs to crash NOW! After the pain, we can then start to rebuild. Trying to keep the status quo will only make the crash much worst.

Btw, I believe we have another congressional bond hearing next week, March 5th. The F fund is where I want to be during this hearing.

Agree with you 350z - the country needs to let the chips fall where they may so the healing can begin sooner. The Fed's scheme to inflate the economy will only lead to stagflation, as the falling dollar drives up the cost of oil and, consequently, everything else. Businesses and individuals who made poor choices in the housing debacle must be allowed to suffer the consequences - this is a necessary, if painful, part of a market-driven, free enterprise economic system.

 

[Birchtree]

You guys are tough. Enjoy the chop while it's available.

 

[350zCommTech]

Spreadsheet shows $1.06 profit for F fund today....is that right???? Unbelieveable...

Also shows after hours F fund to downside and I fund up...maybe slight uptick to C and S as well. Today may have been a good day to put a bit in C/S/I...

Yahoo is messed up. I have the F fund up 8-9 cents. today.

 

[tsptalk]

Also shows after hours F fund to downside and I fund up...maybe slight uptick to C and S as well. Today may have been a good day to put a bit in C/S/I...

The after hours on the AGG is not very indicative of the action. If you notice there is a bid of 102.81 and an asking price of 103.00. There's just no one trading it after hours. So if someone went in and bought one share at the current 103.00 offer, it would be up after hours.