The Dow, the Transports, and the S&P 500 were all down yesterday, while the Nasdaq, small caps, and the I-fund were up. That's just the way things have been going lately. There was some weakness into the close as we head into FOMC meeting day 2.
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There wasn't a whole lot going on yesterday except for President Trump's speech to the U.N. General Assembly, but it didn't have much impact on the markets.
Consumer Confidence was up again, hitting levels not seen in 18 years. Of course when everything looks great there's always a question of how long it can last? Excessive confidence and optimism usually comes closer to the end of a economic cycle than at the beginning or middle.
The FOMC meeting wraps up today and we should get the policy statement around 2 PM ET. The consensus is looking for a near 100% chance of a rate hike today, so what they have to say about the December meeting and 2019 are what investors will be keyed on.
The S&P 500 / C-fund traded slightly lower and back within last week's gap. It found some short-term support off the recent lows, but there is still some wiggle room below if it needs to test the bottom of the channel.
The small caps (S-fund) didn't underperform, which is a change, but the gain of 0.20% was off the highs and we did see some selling into the close. Small caps are more interest rate sensitive so the action looks tentative here this week.
The Nasdaq was up for a second straight day as the traders seemed to like Monday's positive reversal day. The gains weren't big but as we've been seeing, the money seems to be flowing into some sectors while others get sold. Yesterday it was the Nasdaq and the small caps that benefited in the U.S.
The Dow Transportation Index had another bad day falling lower after breaking down from some rising support on Monday.
The EAFE Index (I-fund) rallied back above the 200-day EMA, which is impressive given how poor this chart had been behaving before this recent bounce. It's not out of the woods yet, but it's trying.
The Yield on the 10-Year Treasury has been holding above 3% for a few days now, and it's testing the highs from back in May. That May high created a double top pullback, but here it is again giving the breakout another shot. I've heard that a 3.25% yield may be a tough one for the stock market to take, and maybe that why we're seeing some stumbling in stocks with it just 0.15% away.
The AGG (bonds) is falling as the yields are rising. The short-term trend is down, and the longer-term trend is also down so any plays for abounce in the F-fund may need to be quick trades.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
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There wasn't a whole lot going on yesterday except for President Trump's speech to the U.N. General Assembly, but it didn't have much impact on the markets.
Consumer Confidence was up again, hitting levels not seen in 18 years. Of course when everything looks great there's always a question of how long it can last? Excessive confidence and optimism usually comes closer to the end of a economic cycle than at the beginning or middle.
The FOMC meeting wraps up today and we should get the policy statement around 2 PM ET. The consensus is looking for a near 100% chance of a rate hike today, so what they have to say about the December meeting and 2019 are what investors will be keyed on.
The S&P 500 / C-fund traded slightly lower and back within last week's gap. It found some short-term support off the recent lows, but there is still some wiggle room below if it needs to test the bottom of the channel.
The small caps (S-fund) didn't underperform, which is a change, but the gain of 0.20% was off the highs and we did see some selling into the close. Small caps are more interest rate sensitive so the action looks tentative here this week.
The Nasdaq was up for a second straight day as the traders seemed to like Monday's positive reversal day. The gains weren't big but as we've been seeing, the money seems to be flowing into some sectors while others get sold. Yesterday it was the Nasdaq and the small caps that benefited in the U.S.
The Dow Transportation Index had another bad day falling lower after breaking down from some rising support on Monday.
The EAFE Index (I-fund) rallied back above the 200-day EMA, which is impressive given how poor this chart had been behaving before this recent bounce. It's not out of the woods yet, but it's trying.
The Yield on the 10-Year Treasury has been holding above 3% for a few days now, and it's testing the highs from back in May. That May high created a double top pullback, but here it is again giving the breakout another shot. I've heard that a 3.25% yield may be a tough one for the stock market to take, and maybe that why we're seeing some stumbling in stocks with it just 0.15% away.
The AGG (bonds) is falling as the yields are rising. The short-term trend is down, and the longer-term trend is also down so any plays for abounce in the F-fund may need to be quick trades.
Read more in today's TSP Talk Plus Report. We post more charts, indicators and analysis, plus discuss the allocations of the TSP and ETF Systems. For more information on how to gain access and a list of the benefits of being a subscriber, please go to: www.tsptalk.com/plus.php
Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
The legal stuff: This information is for educational purposes only! This is not advice or a recommendation. We do not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade the funds mentioned herein based on this information. We may trade these funds differently than discussed above. We use additional methods and strategies to determine fund positions.
