3/12 for 3/15/04

[tsptalk]

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I'm moving to 50% S and 50% I.

If we get a bounce, I want to be aggressive. The I fund has been getting crushed and it is down again today. I'm hoping for their rebound on Monday.

This is not a long term move. There may be more downside risk even after a bounce. But I am taking a short term shot.

Tom

 

[Wheels]

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As you know I got in today too. I'm not so sure it's just a one or two day move for me. This sell off that we've just may be the almighty correction that everyone has been clamoring for. We might be ready for a 10% +/- move up. I'll be watching it, and this board, closely.

Dave

 

[tsptalk]

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Watch this last hour of trading. Since the market has held up, the bears that went short have to cover (buy shares back) and we may see an upward explosion into close.

 

[Wheels]

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Good call on the last hour

Dave

 

[AllexBancs]

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Hey guys/gals! What type of technical analysis do you use when making your allocation changes? Why can't we trade in and out of our account more than once a day? Thnx. AB

 

[puertorico]

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Tom

! My question is if u gonna do a short term 1 day rally

"just monday"

or more days ?



I will be looking foward to see how u gonna move on

monday morning or no move at all.:shock:! "stay in stock or play safe G"

!hope see u message board early tomorrow!

 

[tsptalk]

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I don't see a move needed so far this morning.

 

[puertorico]

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guys,it turning too ugly :shock:

 

[tsptalk]

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Did anyone study for this test? We are testing Thursday's low already this morning. I figured it could get a little bumpy today but this bad? Will it hold? I'd tend to sayyes but no need to guess here. It's a watch and see situationsince we are past the deadline already.

Watch 1943 on the Nasdaq and 1105 on the S&P 500.
.
.
.

Update 12:52 EST
Well, we hit 1947 on the Nasdaq and 1105 on the S&P so far this morning and we are not exactly bouncing. I don't see too much more downside risk butI'm not discounting a breakdown. The battle between bargain hunters and sellers isat a stand still for the last 1/2 hour or so.

 

[AllexBancs]

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Tom,

Do you take into account volume on the exchanges when calling your allocations? AB:dude:

 

[puertorico]

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hoping a rebound "smartmoney" turn to positive

 

[tsptalk]

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Do you take into account volume on the exchanges when calling your allocations? AB:dude:

Actually I meant to mention that in my comments Monday. The volume was very low during Friday's reboundand that was somewhat troublesome. I like to see low volume on down days and high volume on up days. But sometimes a BIG volume down day could indicate a blow off day with a turnaround close behind.

Today's volume is pretty low and that is a little encouraging.

Tom

 

[AllexBancs]

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Tom,

I agree with your comments. The buyers/sellers in this market seem to be directionless. Nobody wants to commit money on either the buy or sell side. This type of volume I would expect in the middle of the summer. I guess people are just sitting tight for now after the major rally. AB:dude:

 

[skycop00]

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What a horrible move to the I fund..What were u thinking Tom...? Never mind..I already know..!!!

 

[tsptalk]

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I don't mind comments about my allocations, but please no Monday morning quarterbacking.

By the way, what makes the I fund anyworse than another allocation Monday?

C fund down 1.44%, S fund down 1.92%, I fund down 1.45% ? Bad day all around. :shock:

TC

 

[AllexBancs]

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Come on skycop, cut Tom some slack. The guy knows of what he speaks. I agree no Monday morning quarterbacking here. Let's here your thoughts on allocations and reasons why/why not. Let's keep it real. AB

 

[tsptalk]

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The more I thought about it, the more I'm thinking skycop's post could be the contrarian indicator of the week. The I fund was up about 1 1/2% the day ofhis "what were you thinking"comment. This is not a knock on sky, we all do it. It's just amazing how the extreme sentimentis wrongat the tops and the bottoms.

This is what I am talking about when I show those sentiment surveys on the comments page. Maybe I should have stayed in the I fund. How's that for Tuesday night quarterbacking ? At least I got 50% of that gain Tuesday. Now Japan is up almost 2% tonight.

Tom

 

[tsptalk]

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Again, this is not a knock on skycop, but the I fund shot up 2.6% in the 4 days following his "What were u thinking" comment. When someone chimes in like that, someonewho doesn't understandour (should I speak for myself?) thinking (contrarian, buy fear, sell euphoria) it is usually a great sign that the market will go against their comment.

I spent many years trying to trade stocks not understanding this concept. Iwould buy a stock that would go down relentlessly, and just as soon as I couldn't take it any more and sold, it would bouncealmost immediately.I began to read about it and learned that a point comes wheneveryone whowants to sell has sold, there are no more sellers to pull it down anymore. So, if you feel the pain, it's time to buymore! When you start calculating profits on a winning trade, it's time to sell because sure as sh*t, it's coming down.

This information could help trim years of confusion for someone new to this. I liken this to buying a stock when you hear good news on a company only to see itdrop. You shake your head in disbelief. That goes along with "Buy on the rumor, sell on the news." The markets are continually humbling andit tends to make people wrong, particularly at tops and bottoms. When something seemsobvious,play it the other way.

Tom

 

[puertorico]

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Look like the stock are dow the hill,

may be time to buy stock share at low price?.

or stay put in sidelines ? :X



My actual allocations:

95-G

5-F

:shock:

 

[tsptalk]

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Hi PR

Sorry I didn't respond earlier, I just saw your post. I hope you saw my other post about staying out for now, but it may be time to move in slowly, like start tranferring 25% tomorrow. Again, I'm going to wait and see.

Looks like your 5% in theF fundmay get you a small gain today

Tom