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[tsptalk]

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ChuckBecker wrote:

Hello Folks,

I've been following tsptalk since late March, but this is my first post. So please excuse if I come across a little nervous.

I don't like this market. Someone said it: bad news is bad news and good news is bad news.

I only see current valuations making any sense in an environment of extraordinarily low interest rates. I am a long time believer in the equity markets, I feel very weird being 100% in the G fund, but I'm getting toward the point in my career where I need to take a care.

No doubt there's money to be made in bounces. I just don't think the fundamentals are there to support prices (eg; C fund) much higher, or possibly even at the level, that we're at now. S&P 500 P/E is either 24 or 36, depending on who you ask. That has gotta get down below 20 before there's any sense to this market. Even if you look at PEG, we're still way over 1.0, and there's no great value there.

I'm looking to get back in the equity market, but something's gotta change before I make the jump.

Hi Chuck -
I just wrote a long reply to your post and it died on me when I tried to spell check it.

In a nutshell, I agree from a technical standpoint the market is lookingshaky and that may be enough for me to bail. But from the fundamental side, I believe things look good. First Call'sforward earnings projections for the S&P 500 are about $67. With the S&P near 1100, that gives it a yield ofabout 6% (67/1100). The 10 year treasury note is yielding under 4.8%. In my opinion that makes the S&P undervalued by about 25%.

If you are worried about the market (as I am) get out for technical reasons. Fundamentally I think things are fine. If you are in the G currently (nice move), I'd wait it out and see if we put in a bottom. just my opinion :u

Thanks for joining in!
Tom

 

[tsptalk]

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Amazing. After 4 months of hiding my head in the sand, I pick this week to get aggressive.

Every fund but the G fund is now down for the year. :shock:

 

[TRAVELER]

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WHAT A PAINFUL DAY UGHHHHHH YESTERDAY ON A HUNCH I WENT 100G FOR TODAY AND THANK MY LUCKY STARS BUT HAVE JUMPED BACK IN FOR MONDAY 30C 40S 30 I --IF MONDAY IS LOW I WILL STAY IN STOCKS---- MAYBE A FEW TWEEKS HERE AND THERE---HOPING FOR AN UPSWING NEXT WEEK---WISH EVERYBODY GOOD LUCK AND HAPPY INVESTING!!!!!

 

[tsptalk]

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Nice move TRAVELER (G fund Friday ). :^

 

[puertorico]

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agree, good move traveler ,and my condolence

for everyone who was in the stock, like me.

what a blow ! terrible ugly !

look like is true to sell by may to oct. and

buy by nov to april.

I BAIL myself out for now

I'm gonna sit tight ,wait and see

good luck for monday

 

[smine]

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Oh woe is us. Lost everything made since March. If I can get a rebound will do so and maybe be much more conservative.

 

[tsptalk]

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Don't get me wrong, being in the red as I now am this year kills me, especially since I have been so cautious all year. But to put things in perspective for those of you who have been in stocks funds for the long term, being down 1% in 4+ months this after coming off a plus39% year in 2003 is something I shouldn't complain about.

The hard part is what to do now.