Greetings
This is the 1st of a three-part series starting off 2024 with blogs covering the Yearly, Quarterly, and Monthly timeframe.
Ranking 13th of 63, 2023 closed up 24.23% making it a Top 21% close across the past 63 years. Our YTD High (not much higher) was 24.84% ranking 16th, and our YTD low was -1.18% ranking 11th best.
Some might suspect a great 2023 may lead to a bad 2024, here's what this specific set of data tells us. Excluding 2023, of the top-21 years, the next year closed positive 14 times giving us a 67% win ratio with a 14.80% average-of-gains, a 6.27% total average, and a -10.77% average-of-losses.
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Since it’s a new year we’ll roll the statistics forward, we are now using the 63-year timeframe from 1961-2023. Depending on your perspective (theoretically) we have a 76% chance of a 14.89% gain, or a 24% chance of a -16.24% loss.
Of note, we are entering Presidential Cycle 4, with the last 15 cycles giving us a 87% win ratio. The average-of-losses is significant at -24.31%. This is due to 2008 giving us a -38.49% loss (the largest loss on this timeframe). The other loss was in 2001 at -10.12% (the 1st of a 3-year decline).
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The new 63-Year average has risen to 8.58%. From a historical perspective, a seller may want to protect their gains above SPX 5179 while a buyer may want to increase their allocations below SPX 4286.
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Above the January 2022 high of 4818.62 we are entering uncharted territory. With having only historical support to use as a reference, I'll speculate we are in the process of a measured move up (using the Covid-low to the Jan 2022 high as a frame of reference). For entertainment, if I were to give an estimate for 2024:
The intra-high will range from 12.57% to 23.44%
The close will range from 4.43% to 9.54%
The Intra-low will range from -3.21% to -10.93%
I hope you enjoyed 2023 and that we can make the 2024 even better, thanks for reading… Jason
This is the 1st of a three-part series starting off 2024 with blogs covering the Yearly, Quarterly, and Monthly timeframe.
Ranking 13th of 63, 2023 closed up 24.23% making it a Top 21% close across the past 63 years. Our YTD High (not much higher) was 24.84% ranking 16th, and our YTD low was -1.18% ranking 11th best.
Some might suspect a great 2023 may lead to a bad 2024, here's what this specific set of data tells us. Excluding 2023, of the top-21 years, the next year closed positive 14 times giving us a 67% win ratio with a 14.80% average-of-gains, a 6.27% total average, and a -10.77% average-of-losses.
___
Since it’s a new year we’ll roll the statistics forward, we are now using the 63-year timeframe from 1961-2023. Depending on your perspective (theoretically) we have a 76% chance of a 14.89% gain, or a 24% chance of a -16.24% loss.
Of note, we are entering Presidential Cycle 4, with the last 15 cycles giving us a 87% win ratio. The average-of-losses is significant at -24.31%. This is due to 2008 giving us a -38.49% loss (the largest loss on this timeframe). The other loss was in 2001 at -10.12% (the 1st of a 3-year decline).
___
The new 63-Year average has risen to 8.58%. From a historical perspective, a seller may want to protect their gains above SPX 5179 while a buyer may want to increase their allocations below SPX 4286.
___
Above the January 2022 high of 4818.62 we are entering uncharted territory. With having only historical support to use as a reference, I'll speculate we are in the process of a measured move up (using the Covid-low to the Jan 2022 high as a frame of reference). For entertainment, if I were to give an estimate for 2024:
The intra-high will range from 12.57% to 23.44%
The close will range from 4.43% to 9.54%
The Intra-low will range from -3.21% to -10.93%
I hope you enjoyed 2023 and that we can make the 2024 even better, thanks for reading… Jason
