12%ayear's Account Talk

[12%ayear]

What I don't understand is the celebration and the parading of Mexican independence, here in the United States.

They should be celebrating the freedom this great land of ours provides them.

 

[12%ayear]

Look for DJIA 14100s tomorrow.

 

[weatherweenie]

Look for DJIA 14100s tomorrow.

Here's hoping that you're right, as i'm 50/50 C/S.

There's going to be some pucker factor prior to tomorrow's numbers.

 

[12%ayear]

Here's hoping that you're right, as i'm 50/50 C/S.

There's going to be some pucker factor prior to tomorrow's numbers.

Then Monday I will running towards the door..

 

[350zCommTech]

Then Monday I will running towards the door..

What about the FOMC minutes, from Sept. 18th meeting, on Tuesday? I think the markets will rally on Tuesday.

 

[hessian]

Hey 350,
A great point, issue, and you might be right about getting a boost Tuesday due to the FOMC minutes, but I'm wondering if anyone sees that this could be a negative??
Is it possible these minutes could re-surface dirty, smelly laundry, or even bring out issues beyond what is generally already known? Even tonight before the jobs report, there seems to be alot of sniffing around the laundry room for impacts of lingering issues.
VR

 

[350zCommTech]

Hey 350,
Is it possible these minutes could re-surface dirty, smelly laundry, or even bring out issues beyond what is generally already known? Even tonight before the jobs report, there seems to be alot of sniffing around the laundry room for impacts of lingering issues.
VR

I doubt it. I don't think they will tell us the truth or go into any kind of details. The markets will ignore any inflation concerns and just focus on the possibility of the next rate cut. A .25% cut on OCT. 31 is almost a given. If tomorrow's jobs number is very weak, they will do another .50% cut.

 

[ATCJeff]

I doubt it. I don't think they will tell us the truth or go into any kind of details. The markets will ignore any inflation concerns and just focus on the possibility of the next rate cut. A .25% cut on OCT. 31 is almost a given. If tomorrow's jobs number is very weak, they will do another .50% cut.

I disagree. I believe they are calling for 100,000 jobs. If so, that will make a chance of a November rate cut zero. Watch for a upward revision to the September jobs report(-4000).

I think we are stuck at the current rate until after Christmas/New Year.

 

[hessian]

Jeff, 350,
While its important whether/not a future rate cut is coming, it seems almost futile trying to out-guess the Fed (look at last time) - i think its how they want it. Just focusing just on Tuesday's FOMC minutes, and trying to figure out the effect of the minutes for next week (or 2)...
Here's what we know:
- their last 50/50 cuts were largely intended to resolve "confidence" - people's & corporate uncertainty in the market;
- All "hard" issues are still out there.

Speculation:
- Fed's hope was, and still is, to buy time (maybe problems resolve themselves over time), in either case current problems are pushed down the road to to sometime (hopefully, maybe) where conditions may be more condusive to resolution.
- Just 2 months ago the Fed's main concern was inflation - there are negative effects of cuts, and this on their radar (though they won't admit it publicly).

How much of this will be alluded to in the FOMC minutes is unknown (as 350 suggested). If (big if) some of this comes out, how would the market respond next week (or 2)?
I expect that mintues will say - they will be monitoring all this closely - could be taken to mean a tightening move is NOT off the table - depends how things look [at next meeting]! Again, how will the market respond ??

 

[350zCommTech]

I disagree. I believe they are calling for 100,000 jobs. If so, that will make a chance of a November rate cut zero. Watch for a upward revision to the September jobs report(-4000).

I think we are stuck at the current rate until after Christmas/New Year.

Well, today's job number does change things a bit.

Jeff, 350,
I expect that mintues will say - they will be monitoring all this closely - could be taken to mean a tightening move is NOT off the table - depends how things look [at next meeting]! Again, how will the market respond ??

Yup, that is the question of the day. With today's jobs number and last month's revision, how much of any impact will the minutes have? And we have to decide today since TSP.gov will be closed on Monday.

 

[Birchtree]

I've always said watch what they do, don't listen to what they say. Last time was a good example.

 

[fedgolfer]

As of now, I guess another rate cut is off the table w/ this AM's revised #'s. I can't see what would make markets go above their highs in the very short term. Maybe the big boys will put a handle in the S&P chart, accumulate, then put out scare tactics w/ bad numbers... all in order to get another rate cut at the end of the month?

 

[NyteTracker]

Good call on the S Fund, do you see a carry over for the I on Mon. and Tues?
S and I are up 8% and 9% respectively from their intramonth lows.

Oops, just saw your IFT, nevermind.

 

[hessian]

As of now, I guess another rate cut is off the table w/ this AM's revised #'s. I can't see what would make markets go above their highs in the very short term. Maybe the big boys will put a handle in the S&P chart, accumulate, then put out scare tactics w/ bad numbers... all in order to get another rate cut at the end of the month?

Appreciate your thoughts. Big-boys angle wasn't expected, but is intriguing. Tuesday night is another tough call - hummm.

 

[caymanbrac12]

12% I just wanted to introduce myself (wht00ss son) and say you are making some very good calls. I've been stick with the I and S fund through thick and thin and it's been doing okay with the positive tech run etc.


By the way the fact that you are an animal lover raised your stock in my my father's eyes greatly - if I told you how much he donated to the aspca and local animal shelters you wouldn't believe it. Best of luck.

Greg

 

[fedgolfer]

Appreciate your thoughts. Big-boys angle wasn't expected, but is intriguing. Tuesday night is another tough call - hummm.

Things change fast, if the S&P CLOSES above the high, I think even the big players may be forced to chase. RTH/consumer stocks are taking off... those won't be coming back even if a handle is put in... probably the same w/ financials. I can't see how the tech leaders can continue their climb though (aapl, rimm, bidu).

 

[12%ayear]

12% I just wanted to introduce myself (wht00ss son) and say you are making some very good calls. I've been stick with the I and S fund through thick and thin and it's been doing okay with the positive tech run etc.


By the way the fact that you are an animal lover raised your stock in my my father's eyes greatly - if I told you how much he donated to the aspca and local animal shelters you wouldn't believe it. Best of luck.

Greg

ty Greg, We need more people like your father. Without our help these poor animals get abused.

 

[RPM]

Ditto, great call as always!

 

[RPM]

12% I just wanted to introduce myself (wht00ss son) and say you are making some very good calls. I've been stick with the I and S fund through thick and thin and it's been doing okay with the positive tech run etc.


By the way the fact that you are an animal lover raised your stock in my my father's eyes greatly - if I told you how much he donated to the aspca and local animal shelters you wouldn't believe it. Best of luck.

Greg

Greg:

Great to hear from you. I love reading your father's wisdom posts, and will be taking 6 months off work to do some of the stuffs I have been putting off until retirement. Well, I am going to grab a chance to do it now. Your father left his footprints here in the short time that he was on the board.

12%: sorry for hogging your thread for this personal message...

RPM

 

[12%ayear]

nice week +3.69%