SCHAGAN
Member
I'm leaning to hang on one more day too and catch the penny in G on Friday.
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12%ayear's Account Talk
- Thread starter 12%ayear
- Start date
I'm leaning to hang on one more day too and catch the penny in G on Friday.
FogSailing
Well-known member
Good Luck 12% and thanks for your thoughts..
FS
FS
12%ayear
Well-known member
YEAH...I am locking the profits....going into the F Fund myself. I do not want to change it here. Greed might kill me tomorrow..gut feeling...So, I am sidelining to F Fund.
FogSailing
Well-known member
TSPLookUP says 28 cents...Birchtree says stay in and ride the Bull, Ebb is in F, Griffin expects profit taking later in the day, Fundsurfer thinks the dollar will not strengthen, and all the charts show a breakout..
I guess I'm gonna ride this Bull for another day and hope for the best..
GL
FS
I guess I'm gonna ride this Bull for another day and hope for the best..
GL
FS
12%ayear
Well-known member
goodluck and I hope you nail it....Bloomberg must be off today. So, let me understand TSPLOOK is getting +.28 cents net after -.59FV? ty
FogSailing
Well-known member
That's what it shows 12%
FS
FS
sy harding website THIS PART IS FREE!!
Wednesday, September 19, 2007. 9 a.m. (eastern)
The Day After ‘Fed Day’!
Well, the Fed gave us its decision, and it surprised just about everyone. All the countless hours analysts spent trying to guess what the Fed would do was pretty much wasted time. An aggressive 0.5% cut in both the Fed Funds rate and the Discount Rate! And a big 336 point rally in response!
The rally got its start in the morning on the reports that Lehman Bros earnings report wasn’t quite as bad as expected, and inflation as measured by the Producer Price Index was down in August (due to declines in oil prices in August, which have since soared back to a new record high above $80 a barrel).
Markets in Asia last night, and in Europe this morning have played catch-up also soaring on the news of the U.S. Fed’s rate cuts.
And there is some warm glow left from the rate cut in the U.S. this morning, with pre-open futures pointing to a positive open.
The warm glow is ignoring some negative news this morning.
Morgan Stanley, one of the large investment banks reporting earnings this week, and supposedly being watched for an indication of how badly banks have been hit by all the problems, just reported. Its profits fell a big 17%, worse than estimates. It lost $877 million on bridge loans made to finance merger and acquisitions during the quarter. And it had “significant trading losses in its quantitative trading strategies”. The latter should raise concerns about so-called ‘quant funds’ and how they are faring in recent months.
Morgan Stanley also commented on the Fed’s rate cut, saying it will have little impact on housing fundamentals and “it would look to short the home-builder stocks should the group trade meaningfully higher as a result of the rate cut”.
And in other reports, Housing Starts fell another 2.6% in August, and permits for future starts fell another 5.9%.
The Consumer Price Index showed inflation at the consumer level fell 0.1% in August, also due primarily to a decline in oil prices. Stripping out the cost of food and oil, the core rate rose 0.2% as expected. Investors need to keep in mind that oil prices have surged back up since the CPI numbers were compiled, with oil now at a new record high of $82 a barrel.
In last night’s new issue of the Street Smart Report newsletter we had four pages of charts and commentary related just to the economy and rate cut. An interesting study and series of charts covered the last three times the Fed has begun an easing cycle, 1990 as the world moved into the 1991 recession, 1998 when Asian currencies and markets had plunged and the Dow was down 19% and looked to be headed lower, and in 2001 as the economy slid toward the 2001 recession and the market had already topped out into the 2000-2002 bear market. In one case the Dow also soared 300 points on the day of the cut, but then lost 375 points over the following 4 days. In 1998 the Dow plunged the equivalent of 800 points in today’s market immediately that the first rate cut was announced. In the third case, the market also immediately headed south, and lost 21% over the next 2 1/2 months.
So I am not putting too much weight on yesterday’s rate cut rally.
It was also on mediocre volume, indicating it was still short-term traders who are in the market every day in one direction or the other, and not as Maria Bartaroma on CNBC likes to say, “A lot of money piling into the market today”. And the biggest winners were the bank stocks and home-builders, companies facing the most ongoing problems, and therefore most sold-short. That indicates that much of the rally was also a short-covering rally that fed on itself, forcing more and more short-sellers to the buy side, whether they wanted to be there or not.
The most significant situation is that the additional spike-up, on top of last week’s big rally in anticipation of the rate cut, has the major indexes very over-extended above their short-term moving averages, to a degree that creates very high odds of a plunge back down at least to the m.a.’s very soon.
And this is the quarter’s quadruple-witching expirations week, which tend to be positive, but when it is the week after is usually quite negative.
But, it looks like another quite positive open today, and then we will see what happens as the debate over what the Fed sees that led to such an aggressive move begins.
Wednesday, September 19, 2007. 9 a.m. (eastern)
The Day After ‘Fed Day’!
Well, the Fed gave us its decision, and it surprised just about everyone. All the countless hours analysts spent trying to guess what the Fed would do was pretty much wasted time. An aggressive 0.5% cut in both the Fed Funds rate and the Discount Rate! And a big 336 point rally in response!
The rally got its start in the morning on the reports that Lehman Bros earnings report wasn’t quite as bad as expected, and inflation as measured by the Producer Price Index was down in August (due to declines in oil prices in August, which have since soared back to a new record high above $80 a barrel).
Markets in Asia last night, and in Europe this morning have played catch-up also soaring on the news of the U.S. Fed’s rate cuts.
And there is some warm glow left from the rate cut in the U.S. this morning, with pre-open futures pointing to a positive open.
The warm glow is ignoring some negative news this morning.
Morgan Stanley, one of the large investment banks reporting earnings this week, and supposedly being watched for an indication of how badly banks have been hit by all the problems, just reported. Its profits fell a big 17%, worse than estimates. It lost $877 million on bridge loans made to finance merger and acquisitions during the quarter. And it had “significant trading losses in its quantitative trading strategies”. The latter should raise concerns about so-called ‘quant funds’ and how they are faring in recent months.
Morgan Stanley also commented on the Fed’s rate cut, saying it will have little impact on housing fundamentals and “it would look to short the home-builder stocks should the group trade meaningfully higher as a result of the rate cut”.
And in other reports, Housing Starts fell another 2.6% in August, and permits for future starts fell another 5.9%.
The Consumer Price Index showed inflation at the consumer level fell 0.1% in August, also due primarily to a decline in oil prices. Stripping out the cost of food and oil, the core rate rose 0.2% as expected. Investors need to keep in mind that oil prices have surged back up since the CPI numbers were compiled, with oil now at a new record high of $82 a barrel.
In last night’s new issue of the Street Smart Report newsletter we had four pages of charts and commentary related just to the economy and rate cut. An interesting study and series of charts covered the last three times the Fed has begun an easing cycle, 1990 as the world moved into the 1991 recession, 1998 when Asian currencies and markets had plunged and the Dow was down 19% and looked to be headed lower, and in 2001 as the economy slid toward the 2001 recession and the market had already topped out into the 2000-2002 bear market. In one case the Dow also soared 300 points on the day of the cut, but then lost 375 points over the following 4 days. In 1998 the Dow plunged the equivalent of 800 points in today’s market immediately that the first rate cut was announced. In the third case, the market also immediately headed south, and lost 21% over the next 2 1/2 months.
So I am not putting too much weight on yesterday’s rate cut rally.
It was also on mediocre volume, indicating it was still short-term traders who are in the market every day in one direction or the other, and not as Maria Bartaroma on CNBC likes to say, “A lot of money piling into the market today”. And the biggest winners were the bank stocks and home-builders, companies facing the most ongoing problems, and therefore most sold-short. That indicates that much of the rally was also a short-covering rally that fed on itself, forcing more and more short-sellers to the buy side, whether they wanted to be there or not.
The most significant situation is that the additional spike-up, on top of last week’s big rally in anticipation of the rate cut, has the major indexes very over-extended above their short-term moving averages, to a degree that creates very high odds of a plunge back down at least to the m.a.’s very soon.
And this is the quarter’s quadruple-witching expirations week, which tend to be positive, but when it is the week after is usually quite negative.
But, it looks like another quite positive open today, and then we will see what happens as the debate over what the Fed sees that led to such an aggressive move begins.
12%ayear
Well-known member
great article!!
mine is different my index for the dollar is not correct because it is showing the 5:00p.m rate i have it up at .62 with out taking the fv-59 the dollar is down .02%(at 5:00 p.m)
Last edited:
Show-me
Well-known member
Ditto! The rate got cut is one thing. Earning are coming from a period when the consumer sentiment was not that strong.
One thing that could help is if LBO/M&A start kicking in because of the lower rate.
GL
12%ayear
Well-known member
Sorry ATCJeff, maybe next time!!
ATCJeff
Well-known member
Sorry ATCJeff, maybe next time!!
you got lucky
12%ayear
Well-known member
8 for 8 days without losing Yeah you are right!!! I agree with you
12%ayear
Well-known member
yes, I locked profits and went to the F. Do not want to push it. Earning season is coming..So be careful and look at all the data.
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