12%ayear's Account Talk

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12%ayear said:
The best thing to do is 50/50 I and S Fund and come back Dec.31th. I changed my mind about the markets lately. It seems the correction is here and we just have to ride it out. I know it sucks, but sidelining now is insane. Remember the bad news is already priced in. The real estate market is experiencing what NASDAQ did in March 2000. Everyone was flipping and banks were being careless and lending. Now, the markets have to make adjustments. This was old news in the beginning of the year about sub-prime and homebuilders warning. However;OPEC knows that they need to drop prices or it will backfire. The Fed has to cut to create business for lenders. Remember that is what the FED does. It seems we are giving back 2-3 months of gains. What a waste of time,if you stop and think about it. All that rushing to beat the noon deadline and the gains are erased in a matter of days. Part of doing business. I still think we will rally hard now into 2008.
Click to expand...

I came to the same conclusion after dodging the Feb fall, as well as missing several rises, and have figured out that I am a lousy market timer, and buy & hold would work best for me. So with B&H, what happened this week is just part of business as usual.

However, I still enjoy reading this board, and all the leaders' explanation of the market. There is making and losing money, and there is understanding what goes behind it, so I hope even as buy&hold, you'd continue posting your insight. Thanks.
 
I was only joking around. lol:)So far we have no reason to believe this is anything more than a normal pullback in a midcycle bull market slowdown," said Doug Sandler, chief equity strategist at Wachovia Securities.
"I think all you really need is some green on the screen and people will want to jump in." .......Next week we will have a great week
 
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Is it only the negativity of the moment that makes it look like there won't be any market moving good news in the near and midterm? Especially after that Bloomberg piece on the housing market/credit situation, it seems there won't be much positive for quite awhile.
 
It is funny how many go by the year when seeing your return. The truth is you should go by your birthday.That is when your age for retirement is the true measurement of time remaining. I have 2 charts................................... 1. the year we are in 2. my birthday. The birthday chart is my main one.
 
After this week........
f5e0e25ff3.jpg
 
Hi 12%,
I am a new to message board and have been reading your posts daily
I admire your market reading ability,nobody can be right all the time,appreciate your input and most of all I admire the way you handle yourself.You just a nice gentleman with with good hear and soul..
don't let anybody pull you to his level..
You,Ebb,350z,Jayhaw,White,Nutts,Spaf,Paladin,Fabijo....This board is lucky to have all of you and we readers with less experience lucky to have you'all to learn from.
This is just a game,you try to test yourself to see how sucessfully you can beat the market..with all info available at that moment,but again no one knows fore sure which direction market goes,otherwise we are already
rich....Hope still learning from all of you,all smart heads put together we will beat the market one day!!!
Many thanks,
RXziemy4D
to llearn from.
 
RPM said:
I came to the same conclusion after dodging the Feb fall, as well as missing several rises, and have figured out that I am a lousy market timer, and buy & hold would work best for me. So with B&H, what happened this week is just part of business as usual.

However, I still enjoy reading this board, and all the leaders' explanation of the market. There is making and losing money, and there is understanding what goes behind it, so I hope even as buy&hold, you'd continue posting your insight. Thanks.
Click to expand...

S&P cash closed right on the 175 ema on friday, same support low as march 5th. It had not CLOSED below it since. Both of the losses of the down legs, then and now were ~6%. So my conservative guess is we have a 50/50 chance of this being the bottom, 50/50 of catching the falling knife.
 
Mark my words, August will be a huge month in terms of returns. Although, many think it is seasonally a bad mouth, I beg to differ. 14000 will be seen again in August. I Fund looking good for entry for Tuesday. Also the FED is geeting a tad worried, watch for a little cut sooner than you think. GL
 
Check this out..right on the money!!!!! posted this morning

Today, 08:48 AM
12%ayear
user_online.gif
vbmenu_register("postmenu_106342", true);
Club TSP
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,396


Guess the DJIA close
Lets have some fun and guess the close everyday to see who comes closer.. Today the open is 13265. I say we close +93 points. Whoever comes the closest wins.
__________________
 
Re: Check this out..right on the money!!!!! posted this morning

12%ayear said:
Today, 08:48 AM
12%ayear
user_online.gif
vbmenu_register("postmenu_106342", true);
Club TSP
Join Date: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,396


Guess the DJIA close
Lets have some fun and guess the close everyday to see who comes closer.. Today the open is 13265. I say we close +93 points. Whoever comes the closest wins.
__________________
Click to expand...
watch the S FUND tomorrow...you need the small-caps to lead the way
 
The market vomited the last half-hour. This is looking like a panic run to the door. The Fed needs to step up and reassure the markets about the economy and possible cut rates. If not, you will see some serious losses take place. 12000 before 14000. I still think August will be a great month. Sub-prime is starting to take on a life of its own.
 
Jeremy Siegal was the first person I ever read that had stated a secular bull market was beginning - that was in August of 1982. There was a small article on one of the back pages of the Wall Street Transcript and brother he was right on the money. I'll be buying tomorrow trying to stay in style.
 
Rolling the dice? Sub-Prime Lending Disaster, Failing Hedge Funds, A China Market Correction, $80+ Oil, Greenspan, and Bernanke all make for the perfect storm. We're going to get that 10% correction... and then some. :worried:
12%ayear said:
The market vomited the last half-hour. This is looking like a panic run to the door. The Fed needs to step up and reassure the markets about the economy and possible cut rates. If not, you will see some serious losses take place. 12000 before 14000. I still think August will be a great month. Sub-prime is starting to take on a life of its own.
Click to expand...
 
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