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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!12%ayear's Account Talk
- Thread starter 12%ayear
- Start date
merlin
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 3
12%ayear;88297 said:
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...x?guid={6C7F50ED-23E8-4A45-9738-CB9A41F8DD92}
Job Report to set weak tone for next week
Interest-rate expectations seen weighing on stocks following Easter break
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) - A stronger-than-expected March jobs report will probably hurt U.S. stocks when investors have their first chance to react to the numbers on Monday.
Traders will likely drive shares lower when they return from the Easter holiday, suspecting the Federal Reserve's next move would be to hike rates and not to cut them, strategists said Friday.
Market optimists have been pinning their hopes on the Fed swooping in to rescue the weak U.S. economy with a rate cut. Lower rates would also help the housing sector, the market's main focus of concern as the meltdown in the subprime mortgage market continues with defaults on home payments and foreclosures surging.
"Right now, bad news is good news for equities. We're really looking for the Fed to cut rates sooner rather than later," said Stephen Sachs, head of trading at Rydex Investments. "Anything that upsets those hopes is bad for the stock market."
The Labor Department said Friday that the economy added 180,000 jobs in March, above the 168,000 jobs expected from a MarketWatch poll of economists. The jobless rate fell to 4.4% from 4.5% in February, against expectations it would remain unchanged.
Average hourly earnings rose an expected 0.3%, putting the annual rate at 4%. That's down from the 4.3% pace seen in December but still well above the Fed's comfort zone. Wage growth is a chief concern of Fed policymakers, who fear that wage pressures could nurture an inflationary psychology in the economy. See full story.
The shift in interest rate expectations was reflected in Federal funds futures, which fell after the report. The slim odds the market had priced in for near-term rate cuts have been almost erased. The May contract is indicating the rate will remain at 5.25% in May, while the July contract is pricing in a 12% chance for a rate cut to 5% at the June meeting, down from 20% odds Thursday. Treasurys tumbled Friday in a shortened trading session in New York. See Bond Report.
"We still look for the Fed to remain sidelined through the summer, but see better risk that the next Fed move will be a boost in rates, rather than a cut before year end," said analysts at research firm Action Economics.
The jobs report will set the tone for next week's trade but it's not the only important piece of data, according to Charles Campbell, head of sales at Miller Tabak.
The minutes from the Federal Reserve's last meeting will be released on Wednesday and could revive worry that the Fed is focused on fighting inflation to the detriment of the economy, he said.
The producer price index due on Friday "could be a problem, too, if inflation is too strong," he said.
Next week also sees the launch of the first-quarter earnings season with aluminum giant Alcoa Inc. scheduled to report results after the bell Tuesday.
And then there's the broader political picture to consider, Campbell said.
"You still have Iran as an issue and you still have Syria," he said. "These problems are not going away."
U.S. stocks closed the shortened week higher on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU : Dow Jones Industrial Average
News , chart , profile , more
Last: 12,560.20+30.15+0.24%
12%ayear
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 30
Stocks set for big week http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/06/markets/stocks_lookahead.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007040614
Strong jobs report Friday could see stocks fully recover from February's big sell-off; earnings, consumer sentiment on tap.
April 6 2007: 2:10 PM EDT
NEW YORK (Reuters) -- Stocks should complete the last leg of their recovery from February's big sell-off next week as Friday's surprisingly strong job growth data calms investor concerns about the outlook for the economy and consumer spending.
The next question is whether U.S. stocks can then take the step and recapture the record levels from two months ago. That will hinge on the corporate profits picture, which begins taking shape next week as the first of the market's bellwethers deliver first-quarter earnings reports.
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"Unless we see a more significant drop in profit margins than the market might be expecting, the trend will probably be higher," said Brandon Thomas, chief investment officer at Envestnet Asset Management in Chicago.
12%ayear
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 30
GGal
TSP Pro
- Reaction score
- 8
Huh?
It still says F for Tuesday......we haven't reversed it......are we going to reverse it.......or, or we staying the course, F for Tuesday.
I only asked because you posted an article that made it seem that all week will be stellar for stocks.....
Maybe we should stay in stocks for a couple, three days.
You don't think so?
Thanks
GA
12%ayear
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 30
Still too early to tell. FOMC Minutes comes out 4-11 at 2PM est. This can tank the markets if the Fed is on Inflation watch. Lets see what tomorrow brings and then make a move. Also earning season kicks off Tuesday with AA..Alcoa. Risky times are ahead. I try to play it on a day to day basis.
12%ayear
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 30
This will help markets Monday
http://money.cnn.com/2007/04/07/news/companies/berkshire_bni/index.htm?postversion=2007040714 also Monday is buyout Day.
12%ayear
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 30
Re: This will help markets Monday
Like I said Buyout Monday see http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/070409/dow_chemical_shares.html?.v=5
12%ayear
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 30
F Fund down over .23% nice buying opp. for Tuesday
12%ayear
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 30
Yes, I tend to think that bonds are oversold. Markets are a tad ahead of themselves and confused with all the data coming out. Remember the job report numbers are not 100% correct,they often tweek them. My gut feeling is to sideline the action and wait by finding a buying opp. The F Fund is looking good for that.NyteTracker
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 2
12%ayear
Market Veteran
- Reaction score
- 30
ty and you too
Wolverine
TSP Strategist
- Reaction score
- 3
Howdy 12%........Went with ya on the C today and looks we got a tad bit anyhoo. Not sure what the final tally is yet though.
Went into the F also for tomorrow and we shall see. Chart is interesting with the gap today and sitting at support. Maybe it can give us a good plus tomorrow.
Thanks Again and Thanks To All.Similar threads
