12%ayear's Account Talk

[luv2read]

My gut was telling me to exit on 5/19 (mainly my theory of not being too greedy - and selling on GREEN - which by ITF time was way up there). Had I done that I would have an extra 15 cents - so I really deserve that for 1) not following my gut and 2) for being too greedy.

Steady,

I set stops just like this was a regular trading account and stick with them. Sometimes I win, sometimes I lose, but overall I do very well. It also helps me deal with the new IFT system.

 

[fedgolfer]

12% or anyone who has thoughts on this:

I saved my IFTs till hitting the head on the 200 DMA, went to F, then to I for today hoping for a FV steal and a possible rebound. I have the last bailout to G available if the channel doesn't hold in the s&p. So far its working out and hopefully some of the .38 FV cushion will hold. Anyone (other than birch ) think this market in the short-term will trade sideways or upwards? I should probably stick to my plan and go to G today and not be a pig hoping for a green candlesticks. But if oil continues its surge that means pressure on the dollar and cushion for the I fund (along with today's +.38 FV).

On a sidenote, oil is looking parabolic and DUG got some late day volume yesterday... I kinda think oil will retreat tomorrow or early next week for the short term then resume. Pickens and GS have to be distributing some here on the parabolic rise.

Looks like a good buying op for some select stocks... I just picked up some V. Buy Volume actually looks pretty good since yesterday's lows, will have to see how that develops throughout the day. Anyone have thoughts on my above Q? original message got lost in this popular thread!

 

[luv2read]

Looks like a good buying op for some select stocks... I just picked up some V. Buy Volume actually looks pretty good since yesterday's lows, will have to see how that develops throughout the day. Anyone have thoughts on my above Q? original message got lost in this popular thread!

I agree. The market is oversold and that's generally the best time to start buying in. IMO All that "big money" "smart money" that everyone was wondering about during this low-volume rally has not been sitting on the sidelines as most people thought. They were puzzled as to why it didn't come in on what was "obviously" an uptrend. Same folks were puzzled at transports continuing rise - but they shouldn't be because the volume is there. It's pretty clear to me all that big smart money is in transports and commodities, especially oil, gold, wheat, corn, soy - and won't be coming into stocks anytime soon. Think about it...commodities still have to be moved, higher gas prices = fewer truckers on the road = more freight being moved by rail and water. Also, less freight is going to be shipped via air with the escalation in those prices. Transports are a good buy. I also think that spike up to 1440 and the subsequent decline back to what was a previous resistance level was program buying/selling. Too much of a coincidence in my mind that it hit 1440 and immediately dropped.

 

[fedgolfer]

I agree. The market is oversold and that's generally the best time to start buying in. IMO All that "big money" "smart money" that everyone was wondering about during this low-volume rally has not been sitting on the sidelines as most people thought. They were puzzled as to why it didn't come in on what was "obviously" an uptrend. Same folks were puzzled at transports continuing rise - but they shouldn't be because the volume is there. It's pretty clear to me all that big smart money is in transports and commodities, especially oil, gold, wheat, corn, soy - and won't be coming into stocks anytime soon. Think about it...commodities still have to be moved, higher gas prices = fewer truckers on the road = more freight being moved by rail and water. Also, less freight is going to be shipped via air with the escalation in those prices. Transports are a good buy. I also think that spike up to 1440 and the subsequent decline back to what was a previous resistance level was program buying/selling. Too much of a coincidence in my mind that it hit 1440 and immediately dropped.

i'm at odds right now w/ myself. The brain is telling me to take head to saftey in TSP and take the FV steal if its in sight by ift cutoff... the conspiracy theorist in me is saying the PPT could put a sledgehammer down on the technical charts right here. With light retail volume expected due to the holiday... with all the late-comers buying QID and SKF yesterday afternoon, they could really squeeze the market back up. Also with oil where it is, if it retreats big (as DUG is indicating it probably will -- see the volume on the 3 month chart -- its absolutely ridiculous the past two days) -- it may 'cause tech to skyrocket. All i'm saying is, if the PPT wanted to, the next few days would be a great time to put the bull channel vs bear rally debate to an end -- at least on the technical analysis front. Fundamentally, it still smells like sh*t.

 

[Birchtree]

No my friend, it smells like sweet superlative bull manure. Put some in your garden and sprinkle the rest onto your portfolio.

 

[12%ayear]

sell-off tomorrow

 

[luv2read]

sell-off tomorrow

I agree...down to 1360.

PS...oil will be back up over $135 by the weekend. Big oil ain't scared by puny Congress any more than they were the last 6 times they were interviewed. That's all it is, just another "feel good" symbolic gesture for the sheeple....Congress can't do anything. Passing a law to sue OPEC is another symbolic gesture. No way to implement that (can you imagine the cost of taking even ONE OPEC country to court) or enforce it (who would, the UN?)

Now if Congress wants to try to prove collusion on the part of the oil companies in speculating to drive up the price...they just might be able to set some price controls on US gasoline.

 

[Birchtree]

Nah, a run up past 1406 for tomorrow. Who's running the congress these days making all these stupid gestures. We know them to be donkeys.

 

[airlift]

All of my chart indicators of the benchmark SPX are consistent with another drop, if not exactly tomorrow, before next week. Oil is a real drag, we are overbought, and this is May. Then, we might see some sort of rally throgh June (as per Tom's daily commentary today).

sell-off tomorrow

 

[Gumby]

I agree...down to 1360.

PS...oil will be back up over $135 by the weekend. Big oil ain't scared by puny Congress any more than they were the last 6 times they were interviewed. That's all it is, just another "feel good" symbolic gesture for the sheeple....Congress can't do anything. Passing a law to sue OPEC is another symbolic gesture. No way to implement that (can you imagine the cost of taking even ONE OPEC country to court) or enforce it (who would, the UN?)

Now if Congress wants to try to prove collusion on the part of the oil companies in speculating to drive up the price...they just might be able to set some price controls on US gasoline.

I think the only answer is..... a bushel of wheat, corn or rice for a barrel of oil. Maybe even throw in a steak for every 1,000 barrels as an incentive.
US could start by telling OPEC that we will no longer be exporting any grain or food or resources of any kind to any of their countries until they drop the price of oil immediately. We could also curtail other countries that try to send them food.

Let them shieks eat oil and sand sandwichs. Sound tasty????

Is it ironic that most of the countries that export oil can't begin to grow enough food for their people? America can grow the crops but we need oil and oil by-products to do so efficiently.

Also, how about construction of a government owned refinery that will process the oil from the strategic reserve to sell to the people at cost? Would that make big oil realize what they are doing to the US economy?

 

[luv2read]

OPEC doesn't set the price of oil - they don't raise it or lower it all they do is pump the stuff.

 

[Gumby]

OPEC doesn't set the price of oil - they don't raise it or lower it all they do is pump the stuff.

What would happen if OPEC announced that all of their oil beginning tomorrow will be shipped to the USA and the price will be $100 BBL. What do you think would happen? I would lay good odds that oil wouldn't trade for over $130 BBL COB on Friday.

I would even IFT back into the market if FTRIB would let me have move than 2 moves!

 

[luv2read]

What would happen if OPEC announced that all of their oil beginning tomorrow will be shipped to the USA and the price will be $100 BBL. What do you think would happen? I would lay good odds that oil wouldn't trade for over $130 BBL COB on Friday.

I would even IFT back into the market if FTRIB would let me have move than 2 moves!

Big oil would scream and Congress would slap huge tariffs on imported oil to keep the price up, that's what. And we'd still be paying top price at the pump.

 

[nsurf9]

War on Oil Prices

Electricity is the common denominator - virtually all energy sources can be converted to electricity. Therefore, they must all compete with each other - oil vs nuclear, bio-mass, wind, solar, natural gas etc. With an "at war" attitude for an extesive conversion, principally to electricity power, the world will not be a puppet to OPEC and the oil majors. Heck, you could plug your exercise bicycle and power the grid - and be paid to keep in shape and loose weight.

1st article is opinion by Raymond J. Learsy, but captures the oil enviroment. It doesn't touch the important consideration that the US Gov's gains heavy tax revenue from oil/gasoline.

2nd article is on the American Tesla Motors car - 0-60 in 3.9 secs, 250 mile range, and fill-ups with equivalent of 135 mpg equivalent.

3rd Israel sending a bow shot over it friendly neighbors with proposal of an extensive electric grid to enable electric cars throughout the country.


http://news.yahoo.com/s/huffpost/20080512/cm_huffpost/101262

http://www.teslamotors.com/

http://www.metimes.com/Technology/2008/01/24/israels_electric_car_will_cut_oil_needs/7949/

 

[nasa1974]

War on Oil Prices

Electricity is the common denominator - virtually all energy sources can be converted to electricity. Therefore, they must all compete with each other - oil vs nuclear, bio-mass, wind, solar, natural gas etc. With an "at war" attitude for an extesive conversion, principally to electricity power, the world will not be a puppet to OPEC and the oil majors. Heck, you could plug your exercise bicycle and power the grid - and be paid to keep in shape and loose weight.

I would love to put solar cells on my house (back of the house faces south and a large footprint). But it is to expensive and the recovery time is too long. Tax breaks do not really help (if they existed anymore). There are a handfull of companies seriously looking into wind farms here in northern Ohio. But if the government is serious about alternative energy they would offer real incentives to the public. The technology is out there but it has to become affordable to folks like us. Just my 2 cents.

 

[luv2read]

I agree. The government is more interested in subsidizing (royalty relief) the oil industry to drill more than they are in offering incentives to the public or anyone else for R&D and applied technology for alternative energy. If the government was REALLY serious about becoming energy independent, it would be the exact opposite.

 

[Gumby]

sell-off tomorrow

Good call!

 

[Steadygain]

sell-off tomorrow

Oh Enlightened One - very good call.

 

[Buster]

Oh Enlightened One - very good call.

As always..

 

[12%ayear]

12400s by May 29th

posted above on May 8TH