12%ayear's Account Talk

[12%ayear]

I have been out of sync for several weeks now. It happens, I am in a funk lately. Part of doing business, like baseball players. The most important part is the batting average. At any rate, I do expect a rally today. I just bought some QQQQs earlier. The US Dollar is getting some momo. Also do not forget about the EFT deadline next Monday is the next free date and then were are locked out. I am in the C FUND today FWIW. We are down 58 points. I bet we close 12476 or higher.

My batting average fell some more today the funk continues for now. No sweat. C FUND for Friday.

 

[12%ayear]

grabbing the G Fund penny today and going into the S Fund for the rest of the week. IMO, the job report will be better than expected.

 

[12%ayear]

grabbing the G Fund penny today and going into the S Fund for the rest of the week. IMO, the job report will be better than expected.

Oh well, my transfer did not go through. Time to mail in the form. G FUND land, until my transfer goes through.

 

[12%ayear]

Classic pop and drop day. We are not out of the woods with these banks. There is no magic pill to make this go away. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080401/switzerland_ubs.html http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080401/germany_deutsche_bank.html Now we are seeing Europe feeling the pain for the sub-prime mess. The next pain will go from banks to major lay-offs. Inflation is a major issue also. http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=7427394 11000s easy on the maps. Btw......
Dell To Close Texas Plant, Cut 8,800 Jobs Worldwide http://www.crn.com/it-channel/207000835

 

[12%ayear]

great shorting opp. here
I am shorting QQQQs DJIA +142..update avg short 44.53

 

[12%ayear]

great shorting opp. here
I am shorting QQQQs DJIA +142..update avg short 44.53

love this.. QQQQs shorts are working. This market is going to give this pop back. Looking for a red day.

 

[12%ayear]

This year will be the year of the US DOLLAR to bounce back. Avoiding the I FUND. I Fund has been on a major run and beating all the other funds, the last sevral years. Time for a giveback.

 

[Warrenlm]

If you guys were advising a lady who fortuitously pulled 65% of her savings out of the market last July and is not a trader, but will reinvest once (and is within a couple years of retiring), would you advise her to stay in cash waiting for the next shoe to drop or to jump back in now?

 

[12%ayear]

Just my 2 cents. Everyone on CNBC is cheering how this is the bottom. They are nuts. Although we are up today, it is total bs. Inflation is still a major concern. The banks are still in trouble. Real Estate is very sluggish. Unemployment is creeping to the upside. Construction spending fell again in February as home building tumbled for a record 24th straight month.
The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that overall construction activity dropped 0.3 percent in February, reflecting weakness not only in home building but also in nonresidential activity. Only government building projects showed a gain in February. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080401/economy.html That is a telling -tale. We are not out of the woods. I disagree with many about the recession. We are in the beginning of one. The markets have not corrected since 2002. Greenspan cut too deep and sparked this Real Estate Ponzi Scam. After doing some more dd, I have to say Friday employment report will be worse than expected. http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/1273183/ http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock News/1272985/ just some tea leaves I found.

 

[12%ayear]

If you guys were advising a lady who fortuitously pulled 65% of her savings out of the market last July and is not a trader, but will reinvest once (and is within a couple years of retiring), would you advise her to stay in cash waiting for the next shoe to drop or to jump back in now?

IMO, if you have several years left, why take a chance? I would put a small amount into stocks and the majority into the G Fund. Dollar cost average into stocks.

 

[qibovin]

Just my 2 cents. Everyone on CNBC is cheering how this is the bottom. They are nuts. Although we are up today, it is total bs. Inflation is still a major concern. The banks are still in trouble. Real Estate is very sluggish. Unemployment is creeping to the upside. Construction spending fell again in February as home building tumbled for a record 24th straight month.
The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that overall construction activity dropped 0.3 percent in February, reflecting weakness not only in home building but also in nonresidential activity. Only government building projects showed a gain in February. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080401/economy.html That is a telling -tale. We are not out of the woods. I disagree with many about the recession. We are in the beginning of one. The markets have not corrected since 2002. Greenspan cut too deep and sparked this Real Estate Ponzi Scam. After doing some more dd, I have to say Friday employment report will be worse than expected. http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/1273183/ http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock News/1272985/ just some tea leaves I found.

I agree. It must be some sort of April Fool's prank. It's quite obvious that the bottom won't be reached until we start receiving our economic stimulus payments.:laugh:

 

[Silverbird]

Just my 2 cents. Everyone on CNBC is cheering how this is the bottom. They are nuts. Although we are up today, it is total bs. Inflation is still a major concern. The banks are still in trouble. Real Estate is very sluggish. Unemployment is creeping to the upside. Construction spending fell again in February as home building tumbled for a record 24th straight month.

It's the CNBC Cheering section: "Rah Rah Rah, Shish Kum Bah! Buy so I stop losing money! Rah Rah Rah!" The problem is, first down does not a touchdown make.

 

[12%ayear]

Financial stocks were among the big winners after Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and Switzerland's UBS AG issued new stock to help bolster their balance sheets. With that upbeat news and the second quarter ahead of them, investors appear quite willing to make some bets that the worst of the damage from the credit crisis has been felt. Moreover, the moves buttressed the view that financial services companies are taking aggressive action to improve their capital bases and stave off the potential of a collapse similar to Bear Stearns Cos. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080401/wall_street.html lol, they issued new stock is not a good sign.

 

[12%ayear]

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticke...-Made-of-Sand?tickers=UBS,DB,NCC,LEH,C,MER,GS

 

[12%ayear]

i covered the QQQQs for a 22 cents loss new postion Shorting QQQQs here 45.23...BTW woot.com is having a huge battery sale today FWIW http://www.woot.com/

 

[Bullitt]

You two may enjoy this article. The only problem is that the market doesn't care what anyone thinks. I'm sure there were a handful of crooks who shorted UBS yesterday based off of 'inside information' regarding today's writedowns.

Don't be fooled: Until banks have gone a year without taking big write-downs, it ain't over.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...A85-492D-A667-856873B05EF7}&dist=TNMostMailed

 

[12%ayear]

Analyst Sees 200,000 US Banking Jobs at Risk From Subprime Crisis
NEW YORK (AP) -- The U.S. financial industry has been shedding jobs at a record clip, and some analysts predict the pace will only accelerate over the next year-and-a-half as banks cut costs in the face of the housing market slump and the weak economy.

Analysts at the financial research firm Celent LLC said in a report Tuesday that it expects the U.S. commercial banking industry -- essentially, all companies that lend or collect deposits -- to lose 200,000 of its 2 million jobs over the next 12 to 18 months.
An annual loss of 200,000 jobs at the nation's commercial banks would be an unprecedented number.
In 2007, the entire financial services sector -- which consists of mostly commercial banks -- announced job cuts that totaled a record 153,000, according to the job placement consultancy Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. More than half of those cuts were in the mortgage-lending business, and occurred all over the country, particularly in New York and California.
Octavio Marenzi, the head of Celent's financial consultancy unit, said more layoffs are inevitable as the subprime crisis hits other parts of the banking industry and spreads beyond mortgages to mortgage-related products, such as home-equity loans, and other types of lending, such as credit cards.
"The banking industry over the past 40 years has never seen a downturn in its revenue growth," Marenzi said. "In 2008, it looks like it will decrease for the first time in living memory. They're going to have to respond with severe cost cutting. It's not an environment they're entirely used to."
The credit crisis began in earnest last summer when the markets tightened up at the sight of spiking subprime mortgage defaults.
"There's no horizon yet that anybody can see," said John Challenger, who runs Challenger, Gray & Christmas. "New events keep rolling out ... suggesting that there's more to come."
Financial services companies announced in January that they were cutting 16,000 U.S. jobs, and companies said in February they were trimming 6,000 more, Challenger said. Those figures are below last year's peak in August when companies announced they were cutting nearly 36,000 jobs, but analysts expect further bloodletting in the coming months.
Many banks that have reported huge losses have so far not announced significant layoffs outside the mortgage area, Challenger added. Just Tuesday, Swiss bank UBS AG -- which has a big portion of its staff in the United States -- said it lost more than $12 billion in the first quarter.
And Celent's estimate does not include the securities industry, which currently employs some 800,000 people -- more than it ever has, after a multiyear hiring spree, Marenzi said.
The investment bank Bear Stearns Cos. has 14,000 staffers, and JPMorgan Chase & Co., the company buying the investment bank, has not yet announced how much of that staff it intends to keep. Meanwhile, Citigroup Inc. officially announced in January it was cutting 4,200 jobs globally, mostly in its investment banking business, but said there are more layoffs to come.
"What we haven't seen are big mega-layoffs -- tens of thousands of people in a large company," Challenger said. "It just feels to me there are big ones coming."

 

[12%ayear]

What we haven't seen are big mega-layoffs -- tens of thousands of people in a large company," Challenger said. "It just feels to me there are big ones coming." the last sentence was key

 

[Tempest]

1600 -1900 (depends who is counting) right 'cheer -ALOHA airlines ends passenger service (but keeps profitable interisland cargo going.) 61 year old company *puff*

hmmmm 10,000 of thousands-is anyone that big?

I could see some airline mergers which will cause several thousands to go.
These 1600 got the trapdoor without warning.
http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080401/NEWS01/804010364

 

[12%ayear]

1600 -1900 (depends who is counting) right 'cheer -ALOHA airlines ends passenger service (but keeps profitable interisland cargo going.) 61 year old company *puff*

hmmmm 10,000 of thousands-is anyone that big?

I could see some airline mergers which will cause several thousands to go.
These 1600 got the trapdoor without warning.
http://www.honoluluadvertiser.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080401/NEWS01/804010364

There are going to be major layoffs everywhere from builders to banks. Consumers will not be spending money. Retailers already are hurting and more max pain will occur.