12%ayear's Account Talk

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12%ayear said:
Two keys components are needed to help the economy. Higher US DOLLAR and lower oil prices. read this Amsterdam rejects US dollars..
The US dollar's value is dropping so fast against the euro that small currency outlets in Amsterdam are turning away tourists seeking to sell their dollars for local money while on vacation in the Netherlands.
"Our dollar is worth maybe zero over here," said Mary Kelly, an American tourist from Indianapolis, Indiana, in front of the Anne Frank house. "It's hard to find a place to exchange. We have to go downtown, to the central station or post office." http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2008/03/19/1205602439875.html
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Hi 12%,
What you wrote/identify is I think more scary than the market's drop & gyrations (which IMO, has been made worse by the Fed's meddling, only prolonging problems, and at same time creating new, even worse problems) -as suggested! From my last AcctTalk post, website there identifies alot more on this - much I read others here say, and seems most already suspect... http://www.shadowstats.com/section/commentaries
 
The true blame is Greenspan for cutting too much and causing a real estate Ponzi style- market. He single handly put cheap money out there and not focusing long-term of what could/would happen. Now the end result is a huge mess dumped on Ben.
 
We are heading for a Japan-style ZIRP, zero-interest-rate policy. That is very scary. The US DOLLAR would become worthless. Europeans will/are buying up this country. We are becoming a flea market to the world. The oil prices will keep going higher because of a weak US Dollar. The Fed should be raising rates and go into the recession. Forget fighting this, too late. We are already in a recession. Like a fever, you need to sweat it out and it will get better,time. The key is a strong US DOLLAR. That is the solution.
 
I still think we are almost out of subprime mess. I expect some market correction to occur in March and April, but slowly things will get better. I dont think Dow will go below 10000. I dont see any banks go bankrupt yet. If we get one more rate cut, we can expect the market to skyrocket to the moon.
 
anidoc said:
The fed has done NOTHING to rescue the economy, their interest has been rescuing Wall Street - which does NOT help the economy. The Fed can print money 24/7, cut interest rates, and rescue WS firms until the cows come home but that does NOTHING to fix the underlying problem.
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The Markets tell a different story and that's what everyone sees, so Ben has been highly praised by anyone in Power and those seeking Power (Presidential hopefuls). As long as the Markets hold there will be little incentive to fix the underlying problems. The entire focus has been on the "Housing Bubble" with it's "Credit Crisis". The housing situation was projected to go through it's worst period in the first half of 08 (so at least an end is in sight) - and the "Credit Crisis" was largely seen as "being rescued" - thus the Markets have responded well. I personally see things as you see them and can't help but think the "real bottom" is yet to come. But there is a growing fear that Birch will tell me several months from now that I missed the major upward swing and lost any chance of getting that minimum 5% fast gain I later expect to obtain this year.
 
anidoc said:
... which is that consumers owe more on their mortgages than the homes are worth so they're walking away from them.
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While I agree with your analysis, I think it's limited to a small percentage of the homeowners, definitely the low end of the middle class who stretched themselves buying their homes in the last couple of years. Home falling prices don't matter much for those of us who bought before the high, and who did not get 2nd 3rd loans or ARMs from the house. Even with the falling price, I still have equity in my house, and I suspect that's true for most homeowners. And you are right about investors moving into the market, my sister just bought a unit for rental, and she said that the houses in the good location in that development (brand new) got over 10 bids, with 20% over (the low) asking price!!!

Bush never cared about the low end of the middle class, whom I think are most affected by this subprime saga. That has never been his constituent base, and as long as he can save the market, he would give the appearance that he saves the economy! Most people don't know the difference between Main Street and Wall Street anyway!
 
I have a feeling there will be some +fv this afternoon with the I FUND because of a bounce with the USMs. . Everyone thinks, we are out of the woods. I still see a sell-off this year down to the 10000 level.
 
12%ayear said:
I have a feeling there will be some +fv this afternoon with the I FUND because of a bounce with the USMs. . Everyone thinks, we are out of the woods. I still see a sell-off this year down to the 10000 level.
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I agree with you that we are not out of the woods, it's just a little clearing among the trees. CNBC is just trying to do the happy happy because it's the best news in the last 5 months or so. Might as well get a little sun for the moment, with the realization it's going to be shady again, however....
 
US DOLLAR is way oversold at these levels. Bailing the I FUND. Lookinf for a major bounce with the US DOLLAR tomorrow. Also afraid of ++fv this afternoon. C FUND
 
12%ayear said:
DJIA rally coming this afternoon. We are down -135. Looking for a comeback from here.;)
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One can only hope, but they sure look flat right now -- would take a pretty hefty rally. I came so close to moving from CSI to G yesterday -- woulda coulda shoulda.....
 
DennisFAA said:
I think you're day out of sync like me ..Maybe tomorrow..;)
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I have been out of sync for several weeks now. It happens, I am in a funk lately. Part of doing business, like baseball players. The most important part is the batting average. At any rate, I do expect a rally today. I just bought some QQQQs earlier. The US Dollar is getting some momo. Also do not forget about the EFT deadline next Monday is the next free date and then were are locked out. I am in the C FUND today FWIW. We are down 58 points. I bet we close 12476 or higher.
 
12%ayear said:
I have been out of sync for several weeks now. It happens, I am in a funk lately. Part of doing business, like baseball players. The most important part is the batting average. At any rate, I do expect a rally today. I just bought some QQQQs earlier. The US Dollar is getting some momo. Also do not forget about the EFT deadline next Monday is the next free date and then were are locked out. I am in the C FUND today FWIW. We are down 58 points. I bet we close 12476 or higher.
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12%,

Are you 100% C fund tomorrow ?

BooMs
 
12%ayear said:
I have been out of sync for several weeks now. It happens, I am in a funk lately. Part of doing business, like baseball players. The most important part is the batting average. At any rate, I do expect a rally today. I just bought some QQQQs earlier. The US Dollar is getting some momo. Also do not forget about the EFT deadline next Monday is the next free date and then were are locked out. I am in the C FUND today FWIW. We are down 58 points. I bet we close 12476 or higher.
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Nasdaq is killing the market & the S & P that is going to happen all day. In the end the dow in spite of all this will close up about 60 points. Nasdaq down 15 points. S & P up 8. That is all on the low end but I don't see anything higher.:mad:
 
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