12%ayear's Account Talk

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Remember the junk bond fiasco...after reading the article it sounds like we're moving into junk stocks..:D:D:D

Still out there (50% stocks) getting my chain jerked by this market...

Good Luck All In your Investing..

FS
 
anidoc said:
LMAO! They just will not give up this AMBAC BS! "Two people" said...
yesterday it was "a person" said.... blah blah blah...:nuts: SEC needs to come down on CNBC....
Click to expand...
CNBC says, repeat after me: "Rah rah rah, shish kum bah, buy AMBAC now Rah rah rah!" Banks::laugh:ROFL.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by anidoc
He's in I Fund.

12% still moving to S COB today?

yes I did..

12 Please tell me you ain't ridin' down that ole' bomb in the S fund like Slim Pickens rode that bomb in "Doctor Strangelove or: How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Bomb (1964)" :blink:

Hell he even had his lasso to whip that bad boy - that boy had some balls on him but there is a difference between brave - and well....... getting killed by a 75 megaton hydrogen bomb. Just hoping you stepped out of the weigh of that S fund freight train and are doing ok.

Visited a couple of animal shelters outside Rome and they were pretty clean and seem to be treating the animals well so that was a good thing. I gave the administrators checks for their trouble and explained what I have been try to do as well in the States.

I've been hanging tight in the G/F funds for the moment with the TSP funds but shorting on occasion in my trading account when I get the chance. I'm having someone who is a hedge fund manager I went to school with do the private trading who I trust fully. With all the crap going on it just doesn't seem much to get excited about being long over. Hopefully next week if we do that 75 megaton bomb trick and blast right thru 1270 on the s&p we can maybe start going a little long again (complete capitulation) or If we bounce off 1270 a few time I definitely will rope that baby back up into the plane :laugh: and get to getting.

It will finally be nice to make some money on the long end if it comes to fruition. ;)

But I tell you what I see in the distance for this economic outlook doesn't make me want stand up and do cartwheels either. LOL

Best

Craig
 
12%ayear said:
looking for a 3%-5% pop in the USMs this week. Staying in the S FUND all week. Easy money IMO..too many bears and shorts. Stay away from the I Fund..US DOLLAR is going to destroy the Euro/Yen this week. Love the markets at these levels. This is how money is made. :)
Click to expand...

You got the numbers right, but there ended up being a minus sign in front of those numbers.

Looks like the S fund will be down about 3.5% for the week.
 
I expect a possible up day here and there but the downtrend will continue for probably a couple more weeks. I expect panic selling then a bear market rally starting around the end of March or beginning of April. For now staying in the G fund.
 
I hate to see the numbers drop but would I be making a mistake sitting in the S? I'm down about 5% (and counting), which hurts, but I would kick myself if I got out only to miss a rally back up to recoup the losses.

What would you guys do? Wait it out or go G, cut losses, and try to buy back in lower? Could be month before it comes back up and there will probably be some OSM festivities in the mean time.
 
anidoc said:
Staying G/F until month end. If it doesn't turn around by then I'm not looking for it to do it until after the election. I'll pull down to the matching and put my 10% and catchups into my Roth until I see a definite uptrend.
Click to expand...


Anidoc, I sure hope this doesn't sound "insulting" but the bulk of your comments make me feel we have a great deal in common in regards to the economic forecast.

That being said; I can't help but believe WITH THE TYPICAL MINDSET THAT HAS DOMINATED the Markets since at least 10/07 that we will UNDOUBTEDLY HAVE A SHORT REBOUND - and so I am more poised to jump in soon for at least 1 or 2 days.
 
anidoc said:
Staying G/F until month end. If it doesn't turn around by then I'm not looking for it to do it until after the election.
Click to expand...

I'd have to agree with that. From a fundamental standpoint how can we rebound with oil skyrocketing daily...oh sure, we'll see some rallies but this one's going to take some time to turn around....
 
What the Fed did yesterday should of been done several months ago. This sends a message that the Fed is worried. The rally was nice to get back the loses from Monday. Going forward, I see a strong market until the next Fed meeting. The S Fund looking like a true laggard. US DOLLAR is way oversold. The Fed should not cut anymore to show inflation needs to be fought at this stage. A cut is very bad for the US DOLLAR. The Fed needs to reclaim the US DOLLAR now!!! Look for a rally off these lows. I have a new program I am sticking to and it is working nicely.
 
12%ayear said:
I agree with that anidoc. The Fed will start to get smart and not cut.
Click to expand...
I hope you both are right. Wall Street and Business is now simply shrugging when there's a rate cut, so it's not doing anything except make the dollar drop in value. Wall Street will probably whine and make the Dow drop if the Fed doen't cut, but if they whine it will most likely be a short term tantrum cause the cuts aren't doing anything good anymore.
 
Some analyis claim that yesterdays gain was typical. The last 5 jumps
of such magnitude occurred during "Bear Markets" and only serve as
confirmation of being in one. They also proclaim the "recession" is now
confirmed and is deep enough to warrant the Fed to utilize some new
and imaginative solutions (although limited) to bring this economy back.

Some are stating that the "Injection" was the only move that the Fed
could make without killing the dollar. The previous drop in the Fed Rate
is not working as hoped and the injection has practically killed the chance
of a .75% cut. A .50% cut would not satisfy the Market and throw the
US Market into a test of the January Lows.

Any thoughts ? :confused:
 
Food prices are skyrocketing. That is the tea leaf to view. The Fed cannot keep cutting because of the sub-prime mess. They need to get tough at this stage and raise the rates. Food inflation is the one to watch. Wheat is breaking new highs everyday. This recession will last awhile. Remember the economy never rested from the stock market crash of March 2000. From the stock market bubble to the real estate bubble. Now we have both doing badly. No silver lining around this time. Higher oil,gold,and food prices. Bad real estate sales,slowing retail sales,homebuilders are not building anymore. Iraq war that was charged on a credit card 3-5 trillion dollar. Town and cities are cutting back. Consumers feel like crap and have no extra money to buy a $4 latte from Starbucks and a newspaper. BTW G Fund for tomorrow. Locking profits and sidelining. I smell a triple digit sell-off tomorrow after some negative spin on the Fed movement from yesterday.
 
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