12%ayear's Account Talk

[Corepuncher]

the F fund for the next two days. Wed./Thurs. Huge sell-off the next 2 days IMO but do not go by me

Man, I agree.

IMO...how the market reacts the last half of the day will give us a very good insight into what the herd is really thinking. If we go red before the close, then I think it means that even a 50 pt cut will be sold hard Wed-Fri. 25pt cut or no cut = bombs away! I can see this coming from a mile way. It doesn't matter what the FED does.

 

[Steadygain]

Going with instincts now.

Well put everyone!!

12%'s Thread get's 1st place if you want to get ahead

INSTINCTS are often our best advise.

 

[12%ayear]

Well put everyone!!

12%'s Thread get's 1st place if you want to get ahead

INSTINCTS are often our best advise.

thanks..IMO .25% cut today

 

[nnuut]

Now you've JINXSED the rate cut! :nuts:

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

thanks..IMO .25% cut today

I agree. I don't believe the fed will drop the rate below 3% so dropping it .25% leaves them the ability to cut it .25% at the next meeting if they are so inclined.

 

[ExtremeWX]

I agree, too risky for stocks right now.
I'm playing it safe and waiting for a bargain...take it nice and slow and don't try to hit it big in 1 day.

 

[12%ayear]

The Fed's stagflation fear http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/30/markets/morningbuzz/ The Fed is in a pickle. They want to keep cutting and yes they should because you can deal with a inflationary period before a recession. However that aside, still they can only cut so much because of a stagflation market. In the Fed's gun right now they have some cuts left but not too much.So for them to cut .50% is insane because they will run out of ammo for the near future. IMO..they will do .25% cut at a time and see where it goes and they can always do a cut if it gets worse.

 

[southbeachrat]

The Fed's stagflation fear http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/30/markets/morningbuzz/ The Fed is in a pickle. They want to keep cutting and yes they should because you can deal with a inflationary period before a recession. However that aside, still they can only cut so much because of a stagflation market. In the Fed's gun right now they have some cuts left but not too much.So for them to cut .50% is insane because they will run out of ammo for the near future. IMO..they will do .25% cut at a time and see where it goes and they can always do a cut if it gets worse.

When one is in a losing battle, eventually you have to run out of ammunition.

I think today is the day Ben will hear that very loud -----CLICK !!!??? :worried:

 

[caymanbrac12]

The Fed's stagflation fear http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/30/markets/morningbuzz/ The Fed is in a pickle. They want to keep cutting and yes they should because you can deal with a inflationary period before a recession. However that aside, still they can only cut so much because of a stagflation market. In the Fed's gun right now they have some cuts left but not too much.So for them to cut .50% is insane because they will run out of ammo for the near future. IMO..they will do .25% cut at a time and see where it goes and they can always do a cut if it gets worse.

If I am not mistaken didn't Greenspan take the rate all the way down to 1%??? And then started raising in .25% increments back on up??

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

If I am not mistaken didn't Greenspan take the rate all the way down to 1%??? And then started raising in .25% increments back on up??

That's how we got to present situation. Creditors started loaning to anyone. That's why I don't believe they'll go below 3%.

 

[caymanbrac12]

That's how we got to present situation. Creditors started loaning to anyone. That's why I don't believe they'll go below 3%.

Not quite - better oversight was needed and it didn't happen. You take the rates where they need to go and make sure aware of what the hell the implications can be.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Not quite - better oversight was needed and it didn't happen. You take the rates where they need to go and make sure aware of what the hell the implications can be.

You know best.

 

[12%ayear]

Not quite - better oversight was needed and it didn't happen. You take the rates where they need to go and make sure aware of what the hell the implications can be.

It is not that easy. Ben is textbook. He does not want to be too aggressive and face tougher challenges down the line. He is very conservative and I highly doubt he would cut down to the bone. I am staying on the sideline..too risky. Markets are overbought short-term.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

If the Fed lowers rates much further, it risks going too far.
Historically low rates set the stage for this mortgage mess in the first place.
Plus, the central bank has already loaned $70 billion to needy banks through a series of three auctions since December and it is conducting a fourth auction for $30 billion today. The Fed has said that the credit markets are already benefiting from these auctions.
And the Fed still has to be worried about inflation. That certainly shouldn't be the Fed's biggest concern right now but it is silly to suggest that inflation is dead considering the high prices of oil, gold, wheat and other commodities. Inflation is dead only if you have the luxury of not needing to drive anywhere, heat your house or eat.
I'm not optimistic that the Fed will stand up to Wall Street. Market conditions are too fragile right now.
Still, I hope that some members of the Fed are paying close attention to what one of their colleagues had to say recently about the risk of cutting rates too drastically.



http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/28/markets/morningbuzz/index.htm?postversion=2008012815

 

[nnuut]

Yes that's what happened, but now try and get credit if you can't afford it, the Game has Changed and it will be a long time before it turns around and allows that type of easy money and high rates without assurance that the loan can be repaid.
Lower rates back to 1%, that won't happen again in the near future.

 

[12%ayear]

IMO..we will close red even though they cut.50%. We are up rght now.+117 Watch the pros step in.

 

[DCguy]

I think we cant go lower and .5% cut should give us green for at least 2 days

 

[12%ayear]

I think we cant go lower and .5% cut should give us green for at least 2 days

They will now say that the FED is worried we are in trouble for cutting too fast and too much. Watch.. The pros. know. They will spin it that way and short the heck out of the market now!!! Buying QIDs here. Also , they will say they must see something bad ahead and now there is not too much more the Fed can do. I know how they think. This is bad not good. If the Fed only cut by .25% it would of been better.

 

[Barney]

Do you think there will still be a historic reversal tomorrow and Friday?

They will now say that the FED is worried we are in trouble for cutting too fast and too much. Watch.. The pros. know. They will spin it that way and short the heck out of the market now!!! Buying QIDs here. Also , they will say they must see something bad ahead and now there is not too much more the Fed can do. I know how they think. This is bad not good. If the Fed only cut by .25% it would of been better.

 

[Fivetears]

... and enter, Smart Money.

They will now say that the FED is worried we are in trouble for cutting too fast and too much. Watch.. The pros. know. They will spin it that way and short the heck out of the market now!!! Buying QIDs here. Also , they will say they must see something bad ahead and now there is not too much more the Fed can do. I know how they think. This is bad not good. If the Fed only cut by .25% it would of been better.