10 Month Modified SMA Method (M-SMA)

[RealMoneyIssues]

I am pretty sure that the TSP deposit is like any allotment and is taken out and paid monthly as we are paid on monthly basis; even though we are personally paid 2x.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Looks like todays gains will probably keep the system on a buy S fund unless Monday is a big down day...... Yesterdays close put it on a sell S and buy F.......

Well, since today was a "big down day" I was wondering (since I just got here and haven't moved anything to match this method) if I should leave everything where I have it (G-5,F-5,S-40,C-25,I-25) and see what happens for the 15th move -or- move it all to S now.

Thoughts?

 

[david.alan.williams]

I had help creating this method and it's posted here for anyone to evaluate and try. To answer your question, I'd probably sit tight as you are and continue watching things daily. This would give you more time to truly decide which method you'd like to use. I'd take a hard look at I_T's premium service as well. He's doing very well and he's a great guy. I'm not trying to run you off from this method but I know it has more risk than I-T's system even though it has a backtested good track record. I believe in the system, for myself and the risk I'm willing to assume, but there is risk if the market goes south within a couple of days after the 1st or the 15th of the month checkpoint.

D

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

I had help creating this method and it's posted here for anyone to evaluate and try. To answer your question, I'd probably sit tight as you are and continue watching things daily. This would give you more time to truly decide which method you'd like to use. I'd take a hard look at I_T's premium service as well. He's doing very well and he's a great guy.

Thanks for the advice and the method, quite interesting and simple (which I like).

I have thought about the premium services, but I just don't have the cash laying around for monthly service yet... too bad we can't pay out of TSP... lol

Again, thanks to all for this method !

 

[david.alan.williams]

You are very welcome, anytime!

 

[Beavis]

I only have one deposit each month on the 2nd according to my statements. Is there something I am missing here???

If you send me the dates of your deposits, I'll take a look at it. I assumed two deposits because in the Reserves every time I get paid there is a deposit.

 

[jpcavin]

TSP for uniformed services works like an allotment. If you make a monthly contribution of $100, DFAS deducts $50 on the 15th and $50 on the 1st and make a deposit to TSP on the 1st. However, I am not sure what day it actually shows up.

 

[Beavis]

S Fund Down -1.6%

As of yesterday, your system was saying stay in the S fund with the three funds CSI all above their moving averages. But the S fund was already down -2.6% for the period and is currently down another -1.6% this morning. Could be a change coming.

 

[AlmostAmos]

Yep, looks like a change to the F fund is coming.

For those of you tracking w/ the spreadsheet - are you entering the mid-month totals w/ the 15th closing price & then doing an IFT on the morning of the 16th? End of the month - using the closing price on the last day and IFT on the morning of the 1st?

In one of his earlier posts, DAW said:

I try to use the 15th Close of Business COB in 30 and 31 day months, 14th COB for Feb. If the 15th isn't a trading day, I try to use what appears to be the most logical choice as close to the middle as possible. The end of the month is COB on the last trading day of the month.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

S Fund Down -1.6%

As of yesterday, your system was saying stay in the S fund with the three funds CSI all above their moving averages. But the S fund was already down -2.6% for the period and is currently down another -1.6% this morning. Could be a change coming.

But if you were going to use your IFT today, it would say buy S.

So, do I wait until tomorrow or go ahead and buy S?

If I pull out to G or F, I lock in all my losses...

 

[david.alan.williams]

Well, it's that time again. The mid-month checkpoint for the M-SMA is giving a SELL signal for the S-Fund and a BUY Signal for the F-Fund. We are going 100% F-Fund.

 

[Beavis]

But if you were going to use your IFT today, it would say buy S.

So, do I wait until tomorrow or go ahead and buy S?

If I pull out to G or F, I lock in all my losses...

From looking at David's system,it forces you to make a decision on the last day of the period. I haven't seen (or tested) any data on making the trade the day after the period ends; it could be better or worse.

This time it was pretty close and depended on the closing S fund value. I did not change until yesterday and locked in an extra 1% lower. Has anyone else looked at the performance by changing the day after?

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

From looking at David's system,it forces you to make a decision on the last day of the period. I haven't seen (or tested) any data on making the trade the day after the period ends; it could be better or worse.

This time it was pretty close and depended on the closing S fund value. I did not change until yesterday and locked in an extra 1% lower. Has anyone else looked at the performance by changing the day after?

Well, I wasn't sure what "date" the mid-month point was, and as I wasn't sure if I could make a late morning decision ont the 16th so I went ahead and IFT based on current (3/14) values on the 15th. As I found out, David posted the move on the 16th, vice my move on the 15th... so, what day do I check, or do I just wait for David to post? hmmm

Well, what's done is done and now I should just ride out the loss and see what happens at the end of the month. I am not sure how to get back lock-step with the method at the end of the month without exacerbating the back mid-month move... :nuts:

I think all of that made sense :worried:

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Hmmm, since S might be up and F down today, should I do a move to F for COB today to see if I can get back into the system without yesterday's loss?

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

I'm confused as to how you are entering the data. In the spread sheet, do you record the prices the DAY AFTER the mid month or end of month days? Because if you record the March 15th prices, which gave a SELL signal, it calculates gains as if you sold at the March 15th prices. Which is incorrect, because we would have had to wait to do the IFT on the 16th prices. I hope this isn't how you back tested the data...

 

[Kaufmanrider]

I'm confused as to how you are entering the data. In the spread sheet, do you record the prices the DAY AFTER the mid month or end of month days? Because if you record the March 15th prices, which gave a SELL signal, it calculates gains as if you sold at the March 15th prices. Which is incorrect, because we would have had to wait to do the IFT on the 16th prices. I hope this isn't how you back tested the data...

Reading back over David's post's, it appears the mid month is determined by the number of trading days in the month. So it can change slightly monthly. So I guess a day or two difference can mean a difference in a buy and sell at mid month.

Here is what he said early on:

You are correct on the "Month - Year" entries as being the last day of the month that the stock market closes.

As far as mid month, I try to calculate the number of days in the month that the market will be open and then pick a day in the middle. Some months might be the 15th, but some may be the 14th, 16th, or even 17th.

D

 

[k0nkuzh0n]

Yes, but its not an issue of what day you pick for the mid month... Its how the return is calculated. The return is calculated as if you sold on the same day share prices that you got the signal, Which isn't possible with TSP, you have to trade the following day.

So for it to be accurate, you would have to enter the correct date's prices, whether it be the mid month or the end of the month, then if that caused a signal, you'd have to enter the NEXT day's prices and hope the signal is the same. Otherwise the return percentage is off by a day.

 

[Kaufmanrider]

Yes, but its not an issue of what day you pick for the mid month... Its how the return is calculated. The return is calculated as if you sold on the same day share prices that you got the signal, Which isn't possible with TSP, you have to trade the following day.

So for it to be accurate, you would have to enter the correct date's prices, whether it be the mid month or the end of the month, then if that caused a signal, you'd have to enter the NEXT day's prices and hope the signal is the same. Otherwise the return percentage is off by a day.

True. I guess David needs to chime in and tell us how he back-tested the data as compared to the end of day/next day share prices. And what effect.

I don't know how he could tweak it to fit the TSP, if you waited, you'd be too late, if you don't you 're to early. With only two IFT's, it makes things difficult.


I am 49% in F, and out of IFT's for the month. Hope it at least breaks even the next few weeks.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

True. I guess David needs to chime in and tell us how he back-tested the data as compared to the end of day/next day share prices. And what effect.

I don't know how he could tweak it to fit the TSP, if you waited, you'd be too late, if you don't you 're to early. With only two IFT's, it makes things difficult.

Either way (which I am curious to read the conclusion of this discussion), I am still wondering if I should move to F today in the hopes that I recover my losses in S and go to F to coincide with the Method... :blink:

 

[jpcavin]

Either way (which I am curious to read the conclusion of this discussion), I am still wondering if I should move to F today in the hopes that I recover my losses in S and go to F to coincide with the Method... :blink:

Shouldn't you remain in "S" until you recover your loses in "S"?:blink: