10 Month Modified SMA Method (M-SMA)

[tsptalk]

The funds were around, but share prices were not. They just told us at the end of the month how much each fund made or lost. There were no daily updates. You waited until the end of the month, and then they posted the month's return. They didn't start assigning a share price until the daily record keeping started in June '03, and they all started at $10.

 

[KevinD]

The link that KevinD gave me to "Peaceful gains TSP share price history" also shows the first share price for the S and I funds were 1 May 2001

Fixed.

 

[david.alan.williams]

Fixed. View attachment 10595

Thanks Kevin, I'm getting old and forgetful. :worried:

 

[akpackfan]

David,

So with your system you are now at a 6% gain for the year already and almost in the top 10 for returns. I love it! I knew there was a reason the 10mo SMA system peaked my interest when I first read about it in The Ivy Portfolio. With your improvements I can't wait to see where you are at the end of December compared to the S fund. Granted we may have a substantial pull back before then but it should keep you out of any major damage. Keep it up!

 

[akpackfan]

Oh, and obviously it's going to keep you in the S fund for the next 2 weeks. I assume the closing prices on Monday are what you will use for the next input into the spreadsheet?

 

[david.alan.williams]

Oh, and obviously it's going to keep you in the S fund for the next 2 weeks. I assume the closing prices on Monday are what you will use for the next input into the spreadsheet?

Exactly, COB Monday. The share price would have to drop below 20.8779 before it would give us a SELL signal. That would equate to a 2.92% loss from 1-14 February.

 

[jpcavin]

Exactly, COB Monday. The share price would have to drop below 20.8779 before it would give us a SELL signal. That would equate to a 2.92% loss from 1-14 February.

I'm intrigued and very curious to learn more about your system. Seems like you are on to something profitable

 

[Happy_Trails]

Hey David,

Do you mind posting the most recent spreadsheet again? I want to make sure I am current.

 

[david.alan.williams]

Hey David,

Do you mind posting the most recent spreadsheet again? I want to make sure I am current.

It's in my signature block below. - "My Method - Modified 10mo. SMA v3"

 

[Happy_Trails]

Ahhhh - thanks

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Yes. I just finished my research and was following I_T Trading System during his free trial. I posted a few days ago that I would start using this M-SMA system at the first of the month.


D

A little friendly competition for best return at the end of the year perhaps? I'll give you the head start.

 

[david.alan.williams]

A little friendly competition for best return at the end of the year perhaps? I'll give you the head start.

Sure! Thanks for the head start, I might need it buddy! If there's not some kind of downturn, there's a good chance I'll be sitting in the S Fund all year.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Sure! Thanks for the head start, I might need it buddy! If there's not some kind of downturn, there's a good chance I'll be sitting in the S Fund all year.

Might be a bumpy ride for you. I posted this in my commentary this morning:

“The third year of a presidential cycle is typically the best year, with average returns of 14 percent, according to head of Technical and Market Analysis Mary Ann Bartels”

That means only about 9% from where we are now in the next 10 and a half months. Of course these aren't absolute numbers by any means.Hopefully you don't get whipsawed too much. I actually started out using moving averages back when I first started here in 2004. It worked fine for periods of time. It's the sideways markets that will hurt ya.

Good luck to you and I'm glad you are paying attention to your TSP now. Everybody should, it just doesn't seem important to a lot of people for some reason.

See ya at the finish line. I'll have some water waiting for ya!

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Oh wait, just realized you've been a member since 08. Guess you've been taking notes for awhile and learning. That's how it's done!

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Just read your post over in this thread: http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showthread.php?t=9200

Very nice! +1 on the ole rep meter............

 

[david.alan.williams]

Yeah, I asked Tom if I could do that. I was leery about putting all that in a government email to my co-workers so now I can just send them the link to that thread. We have a lot of young folks in our dept. and I'm just trying to do a little mentoring. Wow! Thanks!

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Yeah, I asked Tom if I could do that. I was leery about putting all that in a government email to my co-workers so now I can just send them the link to that thread. We have a lot of young folks in our dept. and I'm just trying to do a little mentoring. Wow! Thanks!

I'm just slightly disappointed you mention a buy and holder, we all know who that is, and you didn't mention a market Timer, I think you know who I'm talking about.......:embarrest:

LOL! Just kidding! :laugh:

 

[david.alan.williams]

I'm just slightly disappointed you mention a buy and holder, we all know who that is, and you didn't mention a market Timer, I think you know who I'm talking about.......:embarrest:

LOL! Just kidding! :laugh:

I did! I hated to single out 1 or 2 of the premium services (maybe even if I wanted to) but I will tell them about your system. I guess I was trying to be Politically Correct with the premium services, as I didn't want to put off anyone.

I just sent the email that reached about 150 folks. Maybe I won't get fired.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

I just sent the email that reached about 150 folks. Maybe I won't get fired.

I don't see that happening. You're just trying to inform people. Which is more than I can say for TSP and the agency heads I worked for. They'll all thank you one day.

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

Time to hit the hay. Thanks for your service to our country and for helping others. It's a very egoless and heavenly quality.