Yield Curve Watch

[tsptalk]

Remember when an inverted yield curve used to be a problem? It's been inverted for a year and half now and it's not getting any better recently.

2-year / 10-year yield curve:

 

[tsptalk]

After the last yield curve non-event, will investors react to a new yield curve inversion?

The Federal Reserve’s favorite recession indicator is flashing a danger sign again

The 10-year Treasury yield passed below that of the 3-month note in Wednesday trading. In market lingo, that’s known as an “inverted yield curve,” and it’s had a sterling prediction record

While there’s no certainty that growth will turn negative this time around, investors worry that expected growth from an ambitious agenda under President Donald Trump may not happen.

Yield curve inversions have had a strong but not perfect forecasting history. In fact, the previous inversion happened in October 2022, and there’s still been no recession, 2½ years later.

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