Stocks opened higher yesterday and it looked like it was going to be yet another positive trending day, but Janet Yellen threw a wrench into the mix when she suggested interest rates could still be raised in December, something investors had written off recently. The Dow ended the down 51-points.
That new revelation from the Fed Chairman likely magnifies this Friday's October jobs report. The question is... Do the bulls want a good report, or a bad one? Estimates are looking for a gain of 181,000 jobs, and an unemployment rate of 5.1%. The Jobs Report Contest is open in the forum. Click here.
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The dollar was up and commodities were mostly lower on the day.
The SPY (S&P 500 / C-fund) was down yesterday, but basically it only lost Tuesday's gains. We have some possible double top resistance as the SPY is reaching toward the old highs. It seems like a good place for a pullback but if the jobs report is what the doctor ordered on Friday - whatever that number might be - we could also see a breakout to new highs. It makes for an interesting pivot point.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Completion Index (small caps / S-Fund) was off slightly but keeps knocking on the 200-day EMA door.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The Dow Transportation Index lost 0.65% yesterday as it backed off again from the 200-day EMA, although it is still above the 50-day EMA. The 8100 area looks like a make or break area where the 50-day EMA meets the rising support line.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The EFA (EAFE Index / I-fund) continues to move sideways and rising between the 50 and 200-day EMAs.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The crude oil gave back all of Tuesday's gains yesterday and it is now up against the longer-term resistance line. The jobs report could determine which way this breaks. Higher oil prices can indicate stronger economic growth so oil can be a good economic indicator itself. There's a possible bearish head and shoulders pattern forming but it isn't very clean right now so I'll hold off drawing it.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
The AGG (bonds / F-fund) broke down from a bear flag this week and now the 109 area could be an area of resistance, being the bottom of the flag and where the 50-day EMA is heading.
Chart provided courtesy of www.stockcharts.com, analysis by TSP Talk
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Thanks for reading. We'll see you back here tomorrow.
Tom Crowley
Posted daily at www.tsptalk.com/comments.php
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