XL-entLady's Account Talk

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Good morning! My account is currently invested at 80 G, 2 F, 4 C, 7 S, 2 I, and 1 in all of the five L funds. I am planning on sellling more C and S on the first up day, in order to bring my account to 2% across the board. But apparently today isn't going to be that up day!

And my 2 cents on F Fund is that yields are going up and it has been overbought for some time and is in a stage 3 distribution pattern, and all those things look to me like it's poised for a stage 4 downtrend. But F Fund is arcane and mysterious and I really have no idea what it's going to do from here! :rolleyes:

Let's be safe out there!

Lady :worried:
 
XL-entLady said:
Good morning! My account is currently invested at 80 G, 2 F, 4 C, 7 S, 2 I, and 1 in all of the five L funds. I am planning on sellling more C and S on the first up day, in order to bring my account to 2% across the board. But apparently today isn't going to be that up day!

And my 2 cents on F Fund is that yields are going up and it has been overbought for some time and is in a stage 3 distribution pattern, and all those things look to me like it's poised for a stage 4 downtrend. But F Fund is arcane and mysterious and I really have no idea what it's going to do from here! :rolleyes:

Let's be safe out there!

Lady :worried:
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lol lady, 82G, 1F, 5S, 5C, 2I, and 1 in all 5 L funds here. At this point I'll probably jump back on the P-man bandwagon and jack all the equity and L funds up <1% on monday
 
Some interesting reading.

Trying to catch a falling knife? Here are a couple of scenarios to consider.
by Jim Welch

http://www.greenfaucet.com/economy/...heres-a-couple-of-scenarios-to-consider/38859

"....Sometime in the first half of 2009, the S&P will challenge and likely break below the November low at 740. I don't know if this decline will end at 739 or 699. The DJIA will fall below 7,450, and ideally below the 2002 low of 7,197 That's the bad news. The good news is that once that decline is over, the market will enjoy the largest rally since the bear market began in October 2007. It will be ignited by economic statistics showing that the rate of decline in the economy is getting less bad. ...."

Lady
 
XL-entLady said:
Some interesting reading.

Trying to catch a falling knife? Here are a couple of scenarios to consider.
by Jim Welch

http://www.greenfaucet.com/economy/...heres-a-couple-of-scenarios-to-consider/38859

"....Sometime in the first half of 2009, the S&P will challenge and likely break below the November low at 740. I don't know if this decline will end at 739 or 699. The DJIA will fall below 7,450, and ideally below the 2002 low of 7,197 That's the bad news. The good news is that once that decline is over, the market will enjoy the largest rally since the bear market began in October 2007. It will be ignited by economic statistics showing that the rate of decline in the economy is getting less bad. ...."

Lady
Click to expand...

Lady,
I treasure your posts for many reasons - but ultimately it's this genuine endeavor to make know some MAJOR TRUTHS and how to project the future in a well advised and solid manner.

Here I want to echo this TRUTH. As bad as things are now - and knowing the worst is yet to come

NOW we finally realize that THE PAIN TO COME are the LAST REAL HARDSHIPS of our tumbling economy. The faster we get there (and indeed the more painful it is.. or the more deeply we fall)

THAT IS ALL THE MORE A 'REAL BULL MARKET' will take off like never before. The deeper in despair we as a nation go - the more we as a nation are determined to have HOPE - THAT WE ARE READY to build it back up and make it stronger than ever.

EXPECT HUGE RETURNS IN THE YEARS TO COME

Have a wonderful weekend Lady

and Thanks for being you.
 
Steadygain said:
Lady,
 I treasure your posts for many reasons - but ultimately it's this genuine endeavor to make know some MAJOR TRUTHS and how to project the future in a well advised and solid manner.

 Here I want to echo this TRUTH. As bad as things are now - and knowing the worst is yet to come

NOW we finally realize that THE PAIN TO COME are the LAST REAL HARDSHIPS of our tumbling economy. The faster we get there (and indeed the more painful it is.. or the more deeply we fall)

THAT IS ALL THE MORE A 'REAL BULL MARKET' will take off like never before. The deeper in despair we as a nation go - the more we as a nation are determined to have HOPE - THAT WE ARE READY to build it back up and make it stronger than ever.

EXPECT HUGE RETURNS IN THE YEARS TO COME

Have a wonderful weekend Lady

and Thanks for being you.
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I agree with you 100% on everything that you said (except the part about huge returns in the years to come, I think they will be there but will require daily work).

Yes, Lady is a fine lady. Her husband is a lucky guy.
 
Greg said:
Yes, Lady is a fine lady. Her husband is a lucky guy.
Click to expand...

A big AMEN to that !!!

The same is true for me, I am so fortunate to have my wife. No one could possibly have done more for me, brought me to where I am and given me such a beautiful family. I know Frixxxx and Birch and many others feel the same way. No one else would have had the patience to let me learn the most valuable lessons in life and no one is more deserving than all I have or all I can give.

So Lady when I brag on you it's simply to acknowledge my appreciation of who you are - But I would not to anything to damage the sacredness of your marriage and I'm working too hard on mine to be anything more than a true - humble friend.
 
Cut it out, you guys, you're making me blush. :embarrest:

And ask my husband how lucky he feels when I've had a couple of #7 pain days in a row and I'm so ornery he has to feed me with a pitchfork! :nuts: :laugh:

Lady
 
This week could be important for determining intermediate-term market direction, according to the following article:

How to React to the Bad Market News - Mike Swanson (01/26/09)

by Mike Swanson Mon, 2009-01-26 08:44.
"...For the past few days the S&P 500 has been locked into a trading range of 840-804. I believe that its move out of this range will define its next big move. So if the S&P 500 were to close below 804 I would take that as a sign that a retest of the November lows is likely, while if it closes above 840 I would take that to mean that the short-term downtrend that has been in place since the beginning of January is over. ..."

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=100722

Lady
 
Lady,
I certainly understand the desire to move your TSP accounts over to one that allows unlimited trades and all the more 'real time' action.

With your degree and expertise - and now a whizz at technical analysis (I hope the book was helpful) - I bet you'll do very well.

Making money is always a trill and having the right plans to make it happen all the more is icing on the cake. I hope you make way more than you thought was even possible.

GL - and at least we'll have ya another 6 months

Steady
 
Steadygain said:
Lady,
I certainly understand the desire to move your TSP accounts over to one that allows unlimited trades and all the more 'real time' action.

.... and at least we'll have ya another 6 months
Click to expand...
We're looking at changing my husband's TSP account over to something that is more real time, although we may not get in any hurry. Right now it's nice to have "full faith and credit of the US government" backing all of our retirement funds. Even if we DO shift the spouse's over to eTrade or ScottTrade or something similar, we will probably leave my TSP in place until I'm 59 1/2, and that is several years away.

I'm not going anywhere.

Lady
 
XL-entLady said:
....."...For the past few days the S&P 500 has been locked into a trading range of 840-804. I believe that its move out of this range will define its next big move. So if the S&P 500 were to close below 804 I would take that as a sign that a retest of the November lows is likely, while if it closes above 840 I would take that to mean that the short-term downtrend that has been in place since the beginning of January is over. ..."

http://www.traders-talk.com/mb2/index.php?showtopic=100722
Click to expand...
Another wacky day on Wall Street. So we closed close to 840 but not close enough. Not yet. And close only counts in horseshoes. :rolleyes: And atom bombs. And skunks. :laugh:

Lady
 
L2R and 12% all in one day!!

Like Old Home Week, nice to hear from you two! Is it time to jump in the Market?:rolleyes:
 
Here's another technical analysis article that I thought was interesting. Hope you enjoy it too.


Lady
  • Does a down moving VIX always mean that the market will move up?

    As you are well aware, the market is often in conflict with opposing conditions. Take the VIX and the S&P's Relative Strength for instance.

    If you look at yesterday's VIX (Volatility Index), you would see that it appeared to be moving down with a nice lower tick. Then, if you looked at the S&P, it had a nice up tick that gave the appearance of a new short term move to the upside. So, is this a nice, clean condition for a short term upside move?

    One important indicator to consider is the Relative Strength ... especially when it appears to be in opposition. The combination mix of movements with the VIX vs. the C-RSI is what is important ... not the VIX by itself.

  • So, let's look at today's VIX and C-RSI reading. At the close yesterday, the VIX was moving down, and the C-RSI was NEGATIVE. If we look at the chart above, the affect on the market is traditionally neutral which gives the market a "sideways, trading range" condition. What that means ... is that the market can go higher on the short term, but within the extremes of the trading range.

    As long as the VIX is moving down, and the C-RSI is moving up while in Negative Territory, then the S&P will move up on an intra-day basis ... and do so within its trading range. If the VIX is moving down, and the C-RSI starts moving down, then this opposing force neutralizes intra-day up movement attempts.

    "Trading Range" conditions are volatile and unstable conditions because there is no upside or downside trend in place. Instead, there are up an down moves within the upper and lower boundaries of the trading range.

    FYI: What's a C-RSI? It is a version of the standard Relative Strength Index. On the C-RSI, a value of 50 is subtracted from the RSI so that the Relative Strength will "show a zero reading when neutral".

    This allows one to easily see when the Relative Strength is positive or negative due to its position above or below the horizontal line.

    Pasted from <http://stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm>
 
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