XL-entLady's Account Talk

[XL-entLady]

Good morning!

I decided I should stop cluttering other people’s threads and ramble on my own thread instead, so here I am!

As you may already know from previous posts, I’m a newly retired FERS employee. I recently had to do a disability retirement that was several years earlier than my originally planned retirement date. My husband is also retired FERS, on an age-based retirement. So I have two TSP accounts to manage, but I’ll merge the percentages and treat them as one account for the purposes of this thread.

My disability is degenerative and there are lots of medical bills so I need to make the best of my investments. (My medical condition is also very painful, so please excuse my grumpy days!)

But we are debt-free so that helps. And I’m already contracting projects with my former agency again, which pays well. After I retired, they discovered that I was one of very few people who have an arcane skill needed to do certain specific things, so I’ll probably be able to bank a few bucks doing short-term contracted projects for a while. The projects require travel, which I don’t do well, but for the dollars they are willing to pay me I’ll suck it up and grimace all the way to the bank!

I usually invest using an approximate one to one stock to bond ratio (although I’m in more stocks lately). I keep most of my TSP bond allocation in G because I’m already tapping my TSP for income, so my investment percentages are tilted slightly toward asset preservation rather than asset growth.

I invest the stock part of my TSP by tracking rolling averages. In mid-2003, I started tracking the fund prices and comparing them to their performance over the last 14, 28, 50, 100, 150 and 200 days. I use that information to allocate my account among all five funds, and I always stay diversified.

Birchtree says I am limiting my upside potential by spreading out over all the funds, and he is right. But I’m not NEARLY as good at this as he is, and it limits my downside potential too. I don’t ever get in on the very start of up or down trends that way, but it’s less stress, and I have enough adventure in my life anymore just getting through each day so I don’t need more adrenalin in my life. Maybe after I’ve been on the MB for a while longer I’ll be more confident of my allocations and allocate to fewer funds at a time.

I’ve moved a bit more than usual into stocks this spring. In my TSP I’m currently allocated at 27% G, 7% F, 30% C, 15% S, and 21% I. I’m thinking I should get more back into G but haven’t done it yet. My TSP account is currently up 2.87% for the year.

For those of you who are interested, my figures show:

G Fund is at its 14 day average, 0.2% above its 50 day average, and 1.0% above its 200 day average.
F Fund is 0.1% above its 14 day average, 0.3% above its 50 day average, and 1.3% above its 200 day average.
C Fund is 0.1% above its 14 day average, 2.3% above its 50 day average, and 3.0% above its 200 day average.
S Fund is 0.1% below its 14 day average, 2.9% above its 50 day average, and 4.0% above its 200 day average.
I Fund is at its 14 day average, 3.1% above its 50 day average, and 4.8% above its 200 day average.

Any and all comments will always be gratefully accepted on this thread.

Thanks for visiting with me!

Lady

 

[bulli$h]

Hi Lady,

As a newbie, I certainly can't question the successful strategies of others, and my inquiry in no way means to do so. I'm curious about whether tracking the histories of the fund prices would be successful for me, too.

We all know that past performance does not guarantee future results, but what other useful metric can people use? We'd all like to know what the funds will do in the future rather than the past, but what is the best way to predict that??

 

[Steadygain]

Good morning!

I’m a newly retired FERS employee with two TSP accounts to manage.

But we are debt-free so that helps. And I’m already contracting projects with my former agency again, which pays well.

You are off to a great start.

I'm sorry about your condition; but make sure you continue with the health coverage through the Federal System - as this will continue to be a very bargain rate as long as you remain active.

I usually invest using an approximate one to one stock to bond ratio (although I’m in more stocks lately). I keep most of my TSP bond allocation in G because I’m already tapping my TSP for income, so my investment percentages are tilted slightly toward asset preservation rather than asset growth.

I invest the stock part of my TSP by tracking rolling averages. In mid-2003, I started tracking the fund prices and comparing them to their performance over the last 14, 28, 50, 100, 150 and 200 days. I use that information to allocate my account among all five funds, and I always stay diversified.

Birchtree says I am limiting my upside potential by spreading out over all the funds, and he is right. And I'm 100% C Fund - but that would not be right for you. On days like today we lose everything; whereas you are protected no matter what. Do what you're comfortable with. Sounds to me like you have a good plan; and you can always make adjustments later on. But I’m not NEARLY as good at this as he is, and it limits my downside potential too. I don’t ever get in on the very start of up or down trends that way, but it’s less stress, and I have enough adventure in my life anymore just getting through each day so I don’t need more adrenalin in my life. Maybe after I’ve been on the MB for a while longer I’ll be more confident of my allocations and allocate to fewer funds at a time.

I’ve moved a bit more than usual into stocks this spring. In my TSP I’m currently allocated at 27% G, 7% F, 30% C, 15% S, and 21% I. I’m thinking I should get more back into G but haven’t done it yet. My TSP account is currently up 2.87% for the year.

For those of you who are interested, my figures show:

G Fund is at its 14 day average, 0.2% above its 50 day average, and 1.0% above its 200 day average.
F Fund is 0.1% above its 14 day average, 0.3% above its 50 day average, and 1.3% above its 200 day average.
C Fund is 0.1% above its 14 day average, 2.3% above its 50 day average, and 3.0% above its 200 day average.
S Fund is 0.1% below its 14 day average, 2.9% above its 50 day average, and 4.0% above its 200 day average.
I Fund is at its 14 day average, 3.1% above its 50 day average, and 4.8% above its 200 day average.

This is very good info.

Thank you - I'm convinced you will be a valuable asset to the MB.

Thank you for comming - and all the more for staying with us.

Steady

 

[CorMaGa34]

Good morning, XL-entLady,

Meant to welcome you several days ago when you started posting, but I also have a full plate and neglected to do so.

My disability is degenerative and there are lots of medical bills so I need to make the best of my investments. (My medical condition is also very painful, so please excuse my grumpy days!)

Sorry to hear about your disability, I am sure you are taking care of yourself, and know that stress is not good for any type of illness so please do be careful, we can all get very stressed out at times :nuts: at this MB (you will see for yourself). However, we all enjoy ourselves very much, we are like a huge family and you will find very smart, knowledgeable members who are not afraid to share it with the rest of us.

But we are debt-free so that helps. And I’m already contracting projects with my former agency again, which pays well.

I also retired Dec 07 totally debt free and it is a blessing, so I know what you mean. Looks like your agency does not want to lose you, they recognize your skills and abilities and that must make you feel very good, congratulations!

I usually invest using an approximate one to one stock to bond ratio (although I’m in more stocks lately). I keep most of my TSP bond allocation in G because I’m already tapping my TSP for income, so my investment percentages are tilted slightly toward asset preservation rather than asset growth.

I invest the stock part of my TSP by tracking rolling averages. In mid-2003, I started tracking the fund prices and comparing them to their performance over the last 14, 28, 50, 100, 150 and 200 days. I use that information to allocate my account among all five funds, and I always stay diversified.

Birchtree says I am limiting my upside potential by spreading out over all the funds, and he is right. But I’m not NEARLY as good at this as he is, and it limits my downside potential too. I don’t ever get in on the very start of up or down trends that way, but it’s less stress, and I have enough adventure in my life anymore just getting through each day so I don’t need more adrenalin in my life. Maybe after I’ve been on the MB for a while longer I’ll be more confident of my allocations and allocate to fewer funds at a time.

I’ve moved a bit more than usual into stocks this spring. In my TSP I’m currently allocated at 27% G, 7% F, 30% C, 15% S, and 21% I. I’m thinking I should get more back into G but haven’t done it yet. My TSP account is currently up 2.87% for the year.

For those of you who are interested, my figures show:

G Fund is at its 14 day average, 0.2% above its 50 day average, and 1.0% above its 200 day average.
F Fund is 0.1% above its 14 day average, 0.3% above its 50 day average, and 1.3% above its 200 day average.
C Fund is 0.1% above its 14 day average, 2.3% above its 50 day average, and 3.0% above its 200 day average.
S Fund is 0.1% below its 14 day average, 2.9% above its 50 day average, and 4.0% above its 200 day average.
I Fund is at its 14 day average, 3.1% above its 50 day average, and 4.8% above its 200 day average.

Any and all comments will always be gratefully accepted on this thread.

Thanks for visiting with me!

Lady

Everyone here invests depending on so many factors, years to retire, risk levels, plus market analysis, seasonality, trends, etc, etc, but IMO for the retired like us it is a whole different ball game, so hang around and you will get to see how much the gurus are willing to share and help the less knowledgeable.

Welcome to the MB, and hope you enjoy it as much as I do!

CorMaGa34

 

[XL-entLady]

An AFP news article just hit the wires saying that Warren Buffet is in Europe on an investment hunting trip because his company "was more focused on the United States than Europe and this trip is a move towards correcting that."

"Buffett predicted the US economy would continue to face headwinds from the credit squeeze sparked by the collapse of the subprime or higher risk lending market. 'I don't think the effects of the credit crunch are far from over at all. I think there will be plenty of rippling secondary, tertiary effects,' he said."

H-m-m-m-m....

Lady

 

[Steadygain]

An AFP news article just hit the wires saying that Warren Buffet is in Europe on an investment hunting trip because his company "was more focused on the United States than Europe and this trip is a move towards correcting that."

"Buffett predicted the US economy would continue to face headwinds from the credit squeeze sparked by the collapse of the subprime or higher risk lending market. 'I don't think the effects of the credit crunch are far from over at all. I think there will be plenty of rippling secondary, tertiary effects,' he said."

H-m-m-m-m....

Lady

Hi Sweets,
It now feels awkward - but I kept saying the same thing for what felt like forever and after a few months decided to throw in the towel. What I would consider "a real correction" was close but had not really been achieved. So I kept expecting another bottom - one last good bottom to go in on.

In a big way - I hope you're right! It would sure make me feel way more in tune with the "real state of our economy" and who knows - someone may actually think I know what I'm talking about. :cheesy::notrust:

 

[XL-entLady]

For those of you who are interested in what today's bloodbath did to the moving averages, my figures show:

G Fund is at its 14 day average, 0.2% above its 50 day average, and 1.0% above its 200 day average.
F Fund is 0.2% above its 14 day average, 0.5% above its 50 day average, and 1.6% above its 200 day average.
C Fund is 0.4% below its 14 day average, 1.5% above its 50 day average, and 2.1% above its 200 day average.
S Fund is 0.3% below its 14 day average, 2.6% above its 50 day average, and 3.7% above its 200 day average.
I Fund is 0.4% below its 14 day average, 2.3% above its 50 day average, and 4.0% above its 200 day average.

Congratuations to those who just moved to G and F, and for the rest of us, ouch! We'll just have to keep those long-term numbers in mind instead of focusing on the 14-day!

Lady

 

[Guest2]

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/showpost.php?p=165017&postcount=649

 

[Birchtree]

Those members that are now locked on the lily pad may come to regret their bodacious move to freedom of responsibility and be forced to miss some extremely nice upside gains to come - I mean a lot can happen in eight days of trading with all the liquidity looking for the zone of least resistance. Build the rally and the buyers will shop.

 

[Asylum]

i'm staying put...

so far the trend is up... down days happen.

 

[Gumby]

Those members that are now locked on the lily pad may come to regret their bodacious move to freedom of responsibility and be forced to miss some extremely nice upside gains to come - I mean a lot can happen in eight days of trading with all the liquidity looking for the zone of least resistance. Build the rally and the buyers will shop.

A lot can happen....Will $130 oil today be $150 by June 1?:worried: Will S&P drop back to March lows? Looks like a coin toss to me.

 

[XL-entLady]

i'm staying put...

so far the trend is up... down days happen.

I'm staying put, too, Asylum, at least for now.

I made up my mind when this new upswing started that I wasn't going to bail unless the 14-day moving average crossed the 50-day, and we're a long way from that.

My thinking, right or wrong, is that anything less than that is just yoyo market stuff. And this is an election year. The political powers know that if stocks are lower on election day than they were on January 1 then the ruling party gets booted out of office. So I'm betting that stock prices are good this fall, regardless of the means it takes to get them there.

And if I get out now I wouldn't know when to get in again. I'm more 'buy and hold' than 'all out/all in' for the same reason I diversify. My crystal ball always seems to be in the shop for repairs!

My two cents. I'd love to hear you opinion!

Lady

 

[Steadygain]

I'm staying put, too, Asylum, at least for now.

I made up my mind when this new upswing started that I wasn't going to bail unless the 14-day moving average crossed the 50-day, and we're a long way from that.

My thinking, right or wrong, is that anything less than that is just yoyo market stuff. And this is an election year. The political powers know that if stocks are lower on election day than they were on January 1 then the ruling party gets booted out of office. So I'm betting that stock prices are good this fall, regardless of the means it takes to get them there.

And if I get out now I wouldn't know when to get in again. I'm more 'buy and hold' than 'all out/all in' for the same reason I diversify. My crystal ball always seems to be in the shop for repairs!

My two cents. I'd love to hear you opinion!

Lady

Your Strategy is more SOUND than mine.

Over the years I've lucked out - so I play a game that can backfire but can also outdo the buy and holders.

 

[XL-entLady]

There has been a lot of talk today about retirement, and Luv2 and I have had some PM conversations about it as well. So I thought I’d summarize points that I’ve learned over the years in the hope that it may help.

FERS retirements are completely different from CSRS, in that the CSRS annuity is a “one amount paycheck” type of thing, but FERS retirements are paid in 3 separate ways. A FERS retirement is (1) annuity, (2) TSP dollars, and (3) social security checks.

(1) A FERS retirement annuity (the one totally separate from TSP) is figured as 1% of your high three average pay times your years in service. If you make it to 30 years of service, then the multiplier is 1.1%.

It comes as a monthly check, and there aren't any options about what you can do with it as far as lump sum, etc. Your health insurance and life insurance premiums are deducted out of that check, and any tax withholding you choose, and the rest gets auto deposited into your bank account.

(2) Then you have several options for taking your TSP dollars back out of the system, including buying a TSP annuity, taking the $ out in a lump sum, or withdrawing $ monthly based on your life expectancy or on a specific dollar amount you choose. I chose the latter option, and I can change the dollar amount I specify once a year, while still enjoying the interest my account is earning.

(3) And the final piece is that FERS qualifies you for social security, with the same social security rules that apply to private sector. You have to work for at least 40 quarters to qualify and you have to be at least 62 years of age to get a check.


If you have a great HR department, then you can get a retirement analysis from them. If your HR department is like a lot of them, then your best bet is to get an Employee Benefits Statement from your Employee Express website. I’m sorry that I can’t be specific about giving you directions for how to get there, but I can’t get to the site anymore because I’m an annuitant. But go to the Employee Express website, and log in as you normally would. After you log in, there is an option on the lower right of the page that says something about an Employee Benefits Statement. You click on that and it quickly gives you a hugely detailed report that discusses your projected retirement and benefits figures. And you can play with the data by putting different retirement dates in.

If you have any specific questions I’d be happy to answer them to the best of my ability. I’m not HR but just went through the process and it’s fresh in my mind.

Lady

 

[Gaetaone]

Thank you for the great information... I've also read about having 30 years in and being able to get a social security offset until the real social security kicks in.... Age 56 and 30.... Hip Hip Hooray!!

John

 

[luv2read]

Thank you for the great information... I've also read about having 30 years in and being able to get a social security offset until the real social security kicks in.... Age 56 and 30.... Hip Hip Hooray!!

John

30 years...are you CSRS?

 

[XL-entLady]

Thank you for the great information... I've also read about having 30 years in and being able to get a social security offset until the real social security kicks in.... Age 56 and 30.... Hip Hip Hooray!!

John

You're correct about the supplemental - thanks for the reminder.

For those who don't already know, one more piece of the FERS retirement puzzle is that if you work until you're 60 years old (or MRA if you have 30 years) and then retire, you get a social security supplemental payment for the two years from 60 to 62. It's figured in an involved formula and usually isn't quite as much as a social security payment will be. And you only get it until you're 62, even if you choose not to apply for social security at 62.

But if that social security piece makes the difference between retirement or working, the supplemental payment is a light at the end of the tunnel that isn't a train!:laugh:

Lady

 

[XL-entLady]

More info regarding the supplement from the OPM website:

"If you transfer to FERS and you have at least 1 calendar year (January 1 to December 31) of FERS service when you retire, you will be eligible for the Special Retirement Supplement. The special retirement supplement (also known as the FERS supplement) is unique to FERS. It substitutes for the Social Security part of your total FERS benefit until age 62, when most people become eligible for Social Security. The purpose of the supplement is to provide a level of income before age 62 similar to what you will receive at age 62 as part of a Social Security benefit. The supplement stops at age 62 even if you are not eligible for Social Security. Like Social Security benefits, the supplement is subject to an earnings test, which means the supplement is reduced if your income from earnings or self-employment is higher than an allowable amount.
Eligibility Requirements

In addition to at least 1 full calendar year of FERS service, you must retire on an immediate annuity (that is, one that begins within 1 month of separation) under one of the following provisions to be eligible for the Special Retirement Supplement:

1. after 30 years of service at or after your MRA (minimum retirement age); or
2. after 20 years of service at or after age 60; or
3. under one of the special provisions for law enforcement officers, firefighters, air traffic controllers, or military reserve technicians; or
4. under discontinued service retirement or early retirement (that is, a major RIF, reorganization, or transfer of function) provisions. However, if you retire on a discontinued service or an early retirement, you will have to wait until you reach your MRA before you can begin to receive the supplement. Individuals who retire on disability or under the MRA + 10 retirement provision cannot receive the supplement. "

Lady

 

[luv2read]

I think all this needs its own thread in the "retirement" forum, so it doesn't get lost. One of the mods might be able to move it, if you like, Lady. Just a suggestion.

 

[luv2read]

More info regarding the supplement from the OPM website:Lady

Next: deferred annuities (reduced and unreduced)