WorkFE's Account Talk

[Whipsaw]

Margarita Day? Wouldn't that be 5 May?

 

[WorkFE]

I didn't make it up: National Margarita Day is 'Twosday': Where to find deals on margaritas, Burger King and more (yahoo.com)

 

[Epic]

Ships on fire,

Sorry, but when I saw this being quoted, I thought of this immediately. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pboUsEHwOgk
I can't help it. I have daim bramage. :crazy:
I miss K-Mart

 

[WorkFE]

Bottom or lower, inquiring minds would love to know that. Listen, if we all new that answer we would all be TSP Millionaires by now.
I'm thinking 60/40 in favor of going lower.
So many forces at work here from the slowing of QE which was probably a bit overboard in the first place. There was some serious frenzy buying that is beginning to stall out. Inflation is in high gear, younger investors most likely have never seen it like this so there will be a bit of cash protectionism going on. Throw in Russia-Ukraine you have a mix of uncertainty that just spooks investors.

Do I think there is a chance we fall another 10%+, yes. But I also think this will be short lived, < 6 months.
For those risk takers trying to catch a falling knife, wear Kevlar gloves.
For those sitting this out, accept less than 2%.

For the record, I may stair step my interfund transfers in 10% increments into risk funds over the coming weeks.

 

[WorkFE]

Not a good day to be all in.

 

[Whipsaw]

Markets are showing strength... :worried:

 

[ravensfan]

Markets are showing strength... :worried:

I wouldn't trust it. Seen this movie to many times. Everything is rainbows and unicorns near our noon cut off, only to nosedive into the close. Nope happily sitting on the lily pad enjoying my popcorn. opcorn: Let's go Brandon...:nuts:

 

[WorkFE]

It's early but the market weakness is less than I thought it would be.

All told the DOW and S&P are solidly in a correction. The NASDAQ is drilling down on Bear territory.

Hang in there,

 

[joblin20]

:beerchug:

 

[WorkFE]

Good read for those Risk Takers out there.
How the Modern Stock Market is Affected by War (investopedia.com)

 

[WorkFE]

Maybe a bit of a pump today for those that were trying a hit and run strategy yesterday.
The SOTU was about what I expected, lacking in style points.
Tiny Moldova apparently in the Russian/Belarus crosshairs as well.

 

[Epic]

The SOTU was about what I expected, lacking in style points.

Exactly 100%. Meh ....... and the judges agree ! ! ! !

 

[bmneveu]

Good read for those Risk Takers out there.
How the Modern Stock Market is Affected by War (investopedia.com)

Might make a video based on that article, thank you for sharing

 

[WorkFE]

J Powell to testify starting at 10 a.m.: Could be wishful thinking on the futures outlook.
[FONT=Proxima Nova, Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif]Stay nimble, we've been trending down since about November. I'm sitting in the G and when I think we are at or near the bottom I plan to put it to work slowly with the intention of catching the bottom. Of course I don't want to start that to soon, like say there is another 10% to the bottom. [/FONT]:laugh:
But that's the trick right?

 

[WorkFE]

The VIX is not hitting on doom and gloom yet but to be sure, it is running about 30% above its 50-day moving average, an indication that folks are concerned. Bonds are outperforming stocks in the last 20 days by a tad as well, Folks looking for safety.
Now there is talk that Russia could default on debt. Has not happened since 1998. Unknown what would happen but COVID has shown us how interconnected the world economy is. In 1998, the DOW lost about 15% and recovered in about 4 months, we were nowhere near as intertwined the way we are today.

 

[WorkFE]

Lots can happen overnight, things are moving at a brisk pace. Nuke plant shelled, pretty sure that's not good. Weekend in site, not gonna risk good news vs bad news for 48 hours.
Unless there is some breaking news tomorrow before noon I'll be parked in the Garage.

 

[rangerray]

I’m up late. The fire is out at the nuke plant, but the Russians now control it.


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS

 

[WorkFE]

[FONT=&quot]It is forward thinking to have part of your investments in cash. Any downturn in the market provides a buying opportunity. Now fear is driving the correction and shares are becoming or appear oversold. I have been mulling a move over the past few days, while I don’t want to jump to quickly I need to ask myself, why am I sitting in cash in the first place. The easy answer is to preserve capital. The other answer is to allow me the opportunity to pounce on some discount prices while going against the prevailing investor sentiment.[/FONT]
There are some possible good news stories out there. The US and Iran are talking Nuclear deal, yes we have been here before but positive news is still positive. Experts are expecting a strong jobs report, something they have flubbed several times in the past few years. COVID Positivity rates are falling. Next weekend we move our clocks ahead an hour, making for longer daytime hours and the following weekend it will be spring.

TGIF Folks and have a great weekend.

 

[WorkFE]

Think I will stay put in the Garage for the weekend. I now have Risk vs Reward at 65/35 and there is definitely a chance other shoes could drop over the weekend. The Fear & Greed Index is solidly into extreme fear and the VIX has been incrementally ending each week a bit higher over the past 30 days.

For those considering a hit and run, here is a good read to give you pause.
Monday Effect Definition (investopedia.com)

Now if the buyers step in this afternoon, well then I missed an opportunity. :embarrest:

 

[WorkFE]

Russia and Ukraine talking for what that’s worth, My F250 is not liking the gas pump at the moment, the markets are following through on Fridays losses and there is still no baseball.
For those who are not risk averse, there is a strong possibility we fight back and eek out some gains tomorrow for quick scoop and run. I’m not that person.

Its raining here and from what I can tell, it will be wet for the next few days. Like the market, its gloomy.