WorkFE's Account Talk

[anthony]

If you feel as though yesterdays losses were surviveable you may want to close your eyes, today might be a bit stiffer.

Any foundation to that fear? What's driving your viewpoint on today's trading?

 

[WorkFE]

A bit more talk (fear) of inflation. Not just here but everywhere. People don't like the word inflation, especially coupled with words like Pay Freeze. Every money channel I watched this morning was talking about the same thing (Inflation) which, IMHO will cause a negative reaction in the market.

Do I believe we are setting up for a 10% correction, no. But that's just me. I will tell you though that if I had 2 IFT's I would have been out yesterday and back in today or tomorrow just to gain a few crumbs. In other words I believe it will be short lived.

Caution: throughout my life I've been wrong more than right.

 

[WorkFE]

Anthony,
One last thing. Although I am more of a fly by the seat of my pants kinda person. The cautionary news + yields jump data gets everyone talking about historical data. This gets the smart money thinking about potentially setting up their own buy in opportunity then the dumb money stampedes. For every action, well you get my drift.

Thanks for stopping by. I know we don't get to hear from you often enough.

 

[anthony]

Anthony,
One last thing. Although I am more of a fly by the seat of my pants kinda person. The cautionary news + yields jump data gets everyone talking about historical data. This gets the smart money thinking about potentially setting up their own buy in opportunity then the dumb money stampedes. For every action, well you get my drift.

Thanks for stopping by. I know we don't get to hear from you often enough.

Thanks WorkFE. To take a contrarian view on inflation, while it may suck for buying power as a consumer, it has the byproduct of boosting equity (stock) prices. The theory essentially is that it can create an inflation-driven bull (such as the one we may be in now). The idea is that if prices go up everywhere on everything from raw material to finished products and people/governments/companies still spend money to buy 'stuff' then public companies selling the 'stuff' beat expectations on revenue. Profit drives equity prices.

I read a fair amount of Nadeem Walayat's material at walayatstreet.com and he does a good job of explaining this concept (better than me at least). Just browse for his articles focusing on inflation effects or his ebooks.

For the conspiracy theorists out there, I'd offer this version: Inflation = power to the government. Deflation = power to the people. Governments want inflation and will take action to make it happen. 'nuff said.

 

[WorkFE]

You are correct. No doubt the Fed has been down playing inflation fears all the while wanting it.
The continued record earnings reports will not continue. Don't get me wrong, I do not believe they will be losing either. But with earnings coming back to earth some will get the impression that a top is forming. I don't think that's the case. I just think we will see the markets climb slow down. (Normalize). Make no mistake, it will continue to grow.

 

[crws]

didn't jump ship, eh?

 

[WorkFE]

Not quite there yet. You know, when I'm in negative numbers that's always a good indicator I've over stayed.:laugh:

 

[WorkFE]

Looks as though the dollar will not provide the I fund any relief today. Let's see how Egypt plays out since my only possible move out of there would be to the G.
Then again that may not be a bad idea.

 

[FAB1]

Looks as though the dollar will not provide the I fund any relief today.

Yes, but there seems to be a nice "disconnect" with the dollar from the S funds lately. The S seems to be the best bet again this year, at least so far.

 

[WorkFE]

YEP

 

[WorkFE]

Unless someone knocks the S fund off its perch it remains King but unless I'm reading the index wrong if the day was to end right now the C fund would be ruler of the day. Man I'm confused.

 

[jpcavin]

Man I'm confused.

You're confused? I'm just waiting for someone or something to remind me of why my IFT was 100% I

 

[crws]

You're confused? I'm just waiting for someone or something to remind me of why my IFT was 100% I

bUY HIGH sell LOw

calls for a Homer Simpson Moment

Better ride it out GL...

 

[jpcavin]

I got a questions about all that market timing and such..me being new and not knowing much
Lets say I did IFT yesterday to I fund before 1200noon and at the end of the day the markert closed at 60.80 and today the market opened at 60.26. Exactly at what rate did I get in at?

 

[Birchtree]

60.80 - don't worry you'll be green before you know it.

 

[jpcavin]

60.80 - don't worry you'll be green before you know it.

I hope so. But it's not an OMG I'm going to have a heart attack type of worry. It's more of anticipation wondering how it's going to turn out. An exciting kind of worry. Much like a football player in a superbowl. Much to lose and much to gain.

 

[WorkFE]

An exciting kind of worry.

Kind of like sitting in a tree stand hunting bear with a cross-bow. Oops wrong thread.:laugh:

 

[jpcavin]

Kind of like sitting in a tree stand hunting bear with a cross-bow. Oops wrong thread.:laugh:

Hoping the tree stand doesn't fall?

 

[WorkFE]

Unless someone knocks the S fund off its perch it remains King but unless I'm reading the index wrong if the day was to end right now the C fund would be ruler of the day. Man I'm confused.

Boy did I have that sheet all FUBAR.

 

[WorkFE]

No retreat. Between a rock and a hard place. Budget talk could see us fall back a bit early this week then regain some ground. If I had the IFT's I'd use them to boost shares but I don't so I'll sit tight.

GL everybody.