Why so many in the F fund right now?

[Rogue]

17 of the top 50 on the AT have significant (50% or more) distributions in the F fund.
What gives? This isn't what I usually see on the AT.

 

[Frixxxx]

You will find that there are trends in the market and people who follow trends tend to make moves in cycles. September is a bearish month and earnings reports are sporadic. Add in the election and the world (European) issues and it tends to be volatile. The "G" is earning about .12% this month and the risk in "F" is low. So, many people flock towards the safest + return location. Hence, many non-B&H persons still try and milk the market for the best returns. That's my take.

 

[Bullitt]

Intermediate term, it looks like AGG may have broke out to the upside on a daily chart.

Longer term, for the Japanese, buying gov't bonds has been the right move for the past 20 years. If I were a betting man, rates going lower for the next 5 years is what I'd bet on.

 

[Bullitt]

AGG, rising wedge at top of resistance channel.

 

[Warrenlm]

Intermediate term, it looks like AGG may have broke out to the upside on a daily chart.

Longer term, for the Japanese, buying gov't bonds has been the right move for the past 20 years. If I were a betting man, rates going lower for the next 5 years is what I'd bet on.

That's a few years longer than seeming conventional wisdom.....Do you have an insider on the vigilante team?

 

[Bullitt]

No insiders here, I've just learned to think the opposite of what the overwhelming majority is thinking.

 

[twodaystocks]

f fund

http://www.cnbc.com/id/49815214

Nice article on CNBC talking about how investors are putting more weight into municipal bonds (F Fund) because of concerns over market direction.

 

[rcknfrewld]

Re: f fund

A lot of investors were in housing stocks back in 2007 when they were booming....be careful....pigs get fed hogs get slaughtered

 

[twodaystocks]

Good call on the housing market. Don't forget about the tech market a few years earlier. I would feel much safer in a slow moving fund such as the F or G rather than the C, I, or S funds.

 

[rcknfrewld]

When interest rates rise the F will skyfall, if you want to be really safe head for G...save up and get ready to pounce when fiscal cliff gets run through....when there is blood in the market the vampires come out

 

[twodaystocks]

Regardless of our opinions on which fund we say we "should" be in, I think we both agree on which funds we "should not" be in. C, I, S!!

 

[twodaystocks]

Also, the last "skyfall" event was in the 2008 crash. Other than that, it's a very slow and safe investment avenue.

 

[Bullitt]

Unfortunately people today are investing in bonds for the capital gains not the yield. Investing for capital gains is very unpredictable and yields are nonexistant.

I think the call of the week is to buy stocks. Bonds haven't reacted well to this swoon. Perhaps they're already factoring in more printing ahead.

 

[twodaystocks]

I think the call of the week is to buy stocks.

Nice call Bullitt.. I hope you enjoyed that 2% move yesterday. Any thoughts on the rest of the week/month?

 

[Bullitt]

Any thoughts on the rest of the week/month?

Ha. No. Your guess is as good as mine.

Going forward I'm still holding on to my thesis that we will see lower yields despite the recent double top in the 30 year @152. That in turn should bring another good buying opportunity in stocks around S&P 1300.

The big boys bet on Mitt without making adjustments to their portfolios of dividend paying stocks; now they are all unloading 'em before they get pinched with a higher tax rate.

 

[BearTrap]

Bonds are starting to break down with money moving back into risk on (for now). F fund is trading in a pretty flat channel according to the charts. My guess is F will fall slightly the next day or two then push back up a bit next week. The big question is whether or not the bond bubble will burst in the next year or two?