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Why not the I Fund???
- Thread starter Rod
- Start date
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'Cos we needed a lesson in humility, a reminder that we don't know everything.
Now let us never speak of the I fund ever again, until it drops past our selling price. :l
hehehe. Yes, it seems to be on a tear.
When I am not off on hunches, I am using the FRO, and the FRO says, "too expensive".
'Cos we needed a lesson in humility, a reminder that we don't know everything.
Now let us never speak of the I fund ever again, until it drops past our selling price. :l
hehehe. Yes, it seems to be on a tear.
When I am not off on hunches, I am using the FRO, and the FRO says, "too expensive".
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Rod wrote:
Tom
Rod wrote:
I'm waiting for the dollar to either rebound from where it is now, or break down. It is currently near the bottom of it's upward trading channel. A risingdollar is bad for the I fund. I falling dollar helps the I fund. I try to talk about it, with the chart of the dollar, in the market comments from time to time. That will give me something to talk about tonight.
Tom
G
Guest
Guest
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After hiding out in the G fund for a while, I have slowly taken a "larger and larger" position in the I fund. Currently 30% I (now you you see why I put quotations marks around around larger). 10% in C, 60% G, I have been waiting for a clear indication of which way to go, market has been kind of "wishy washey"--no strong consistent rally or decline.
Just when I thought I would take a bit larger position in the I fund, assuming the fund would decline, low and behold it went up 13 cents. I'm just glad I took a small position, because, yes that was an expensive buy for me. Right now I will just hold and hopefully the ride isnt too bumpy.
After hiding out in the G fund for a while, I have slowly taken a "larger and larger" position in the I fund. Currently 30% I (now you you see why I put quotations marks around around larger). 10% in C, 60% G, I have been waiting for a clear indication of which way to go, market has been kind of "wishy washey"--no strong consistent rally or decline.
Just when I thought I would take a bit larger position in the I fund, assuming the fund would decline, low and behold it went up 13 cents. I'm just glad I took a small position, because, yes that was an expensive buy for me. Right now I will just hold and hopefully the ride isnt too bumpy.
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I'm still waiting on a clear sign that the uptrend in the dollar is over before getting in the I fund. I thought it broke down the other day but today the dollar shot back up (The I fund may have done pretty badly today). The problem is I couldmiss the boat while waiting. But my "signals" are usually early and I know as soon as I jump in the I fund, the dollar will rally and kill any EAFE indexgains.
There is not as much guess work with the U.S. funds. It is not a terrible thing to stay in C and S and wait for a direction in the dollar before deciding on the I fund. Your 30% is probably a good idea but I'm surprised you have so much in the G fund.
I'm still waiting on a clear sign that the uptrend in the dollar is over before getting in the I fund. I thought it broke down the other day but today the dollar shot back up (The I fund may have done pretty badly today). The problem is I couldmiss the boat while waiting. But my "signals" are usually early and I know as soon as I jump in the I fund, the dollar will rally and kill any EAFE indexgains.
There is not as much guess work with the U.S. funds. It is not a terrible thing to stay in C and S and wait for a direction in the dollar before deciding on the I fund. Your 30% is probably a good idea but I'm surprised you have so much in the G fund.
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Interestingly, C and I seem to be more highly correlated in the short-term when the U.S. market is declining than when the market is advancing.Remember those big selloffs earlier in the year? The I fund was tanking just as much if not more than C and S. I do not think that the I fund is necessarily a safe bet in the short-term if that is what you are looking for.
Interestingly, C and I seem to be more highly correlated in the short-term when the U.S. market is declining than when the market is advancing.Remember those big selloffs earlier in the year? The I fund was tanking just as much if not more than C and S. I do not think that the I fund is necessarily a safe bet in the short-term if that is what you are looking for.
G
Guest
Guest
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I agree Pete.
I agree Pete.
G
Guest
Guest
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So a warning, the I fund fast-moving average share price has dipped into the intermediate-moving share price average. Not a good sign. Remember when I said this about the C fund a week or two ago? We all know where it has gone.
So a warning, the I fund fast-moving average share price has dipped into the intermediate-moving share price average. Not a good sign. Remember when I said this about the C fund a week or two ago? We all know where it has gone.
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I think we (I) got lucky yesterday with the I fund only being down .01. The dollar being down helped. Today was a different story. The dollar rallied and the EAFE was down. Should be a bad day for the I fund.
Today could be the ~GONG~ that tells us toget out of the I fund but the dollar chart still looks pretty bad. A lot of overhead resistance.
I think we (I) got lucky yesterday with the I fund only being down .01. The dollar being down helped. Today was a different story. The dollar rallied and the EAFE was down. Should be a bad day for the I fund.
Today could be the ~GONG~ that tells us toget out of the I fund but the dollar chart still looks pretty bad. A lot of overhead resistance.
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The dollar had a nice rally Tuesday which hurt the I fund. I wish the rally in the US markets came a bit earlier. It would have been nice to move more into theI fund for Wednesday as ittends to catch up to the US gains the next day, especially after it has a down day. I'll predict a 1% plus day for the I fund Wednesday.
My predictionshould be the kiss of death for the I fund.
The dollar had a nice rally Tuesday which hurt the I fund. I wish the rally in the US markets came a bit earlier. It would have been nice to move more into theI fund for Wednesday as ittends to catch up to the US gains the next day, especially after it has a down day. I'll predict a 1% plus day for the I fund Wednesday.
My predictionshould be the kiss of death for the I fund.
G
Guest
Guest
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mlk_man wrote:
mlk_man wrote:
Remember when I wrote this? You may be right about the bounce back today, but I don't think you're gonna make any money in the I fund for while unless you get in one day and out the next.
Cortez
Member
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I have been 50% I since late January and it has been the best performing fund during that time. I was also 50% S but I have since diversified (late April) into 10%G, 20% C and 20% S (the C fund has been a bad idea thus far). The reason I am so heavy on I is that I fundamentally believe in the weak dollar trend. I see the trend being a slow gradual process due to foreign central banks devaluating their currencies in an attempt to keep an advantage in export markets.
I have been 50% I since late January and it has been the best performing fund during that time. I was also 50% S but I have since diversified (late April) into 10%G, 20% C and 20% S (the C fund has been a bad idea thus far). The reason I am so heavy on I is that I fundamentally believe in the weak dollar trend. I see the trend being a slow gradual process due to foreign central banks devaluating their currencies in an attempt to keep an advantage in export markets.
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My predictionshould be the kiss of death for the I fund.
hohoho, right there with youregarding my short-term readsbut there is no shame in giving it a try. I was actually pleased to hear that Greenspan was going to speak this week. He usually stirs things up and it seemed like he might have a positive influence this time.
Honestly, I am not sure about I fund in the short-term.A 25-30% allocation seems reasonable for the long-term. Some say as high as 40-50%.
My predictionshould be the kiss of death for the I fund.
hohoho, right there with youregarding my short-term reads
but there is no shame in giving it a try. I was actually pleased to hear that Greenspan was going to speak this week. He usually stirs things up and it seemed like he might have a positive influence this time. Honestly, I am not sure about I fund in the short-term.A 25-30% allocation seems reasonable for the long-term. Some say as high as 40-50%.
G
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I fund is starting down this morning.
I fund is starting down this morning.
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