Why dosen't transfer advice seem to track the market?

[Single_Tasker]

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Hi All,

Sorry- when it comes to money matters I have the IQ of Yeast.

I have been using the daily posting found at http://www.tsptalk.com/comments.html to decide where and when to transfer my TSP balance.

At the close of the market each day I check how the market did by looking at these:

Dow, NASDAQ, &S&P

Frequently I notice that when these are all up, I check the comments and see the author is moving, or has moved his money to the G Fund.

I'm lost... Aren't the C, S, & I Funds stock funds... and as such when "the market" is up don't we make money? I noticed last week there was a 3 day period when all 3 were up, but the comments suggested 50% in G.

So, what am I missing?

Thanks!

Bill

 

[Guest]

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Single_Tasker wrote:

At the close of the market each day I check how the market did by looking at these:

Dow, NASDAQ, &S&P

Frequently I notice that when these are all up, I check the comments and see the author is moving, or has moved his money to the G Fund.

I'm lost... Aren't the C, S, & I Funds stock funds... and as such when "the market" is up don't we make money? I noticed last week there was a 3 day period when all 3 were up, but the comments suggested 50% in G.

So, what am I missing?

Thanks!

Bill

OK Bill. Listen. First, if you want to know how the funds are doing, check the funds themselves. There are quotes in the upper left hand corner of this website. While there may be some similarities between these funds and the Indices that you watch, they also may be very different. That could account for the disconnect.

"The market" is composed of various indices and various companies that may be rising or falling. If a particular industry is doing well, it won't necessarily affect all of the indices equally.

Also, notice that the funds often move up and down in waves. The analysts may be attempting to use this behavior to their advantage. For example, if a fund appears to be moving up within a channel, and is nearing the top of the channel, the analyst may be assuming that the fund will now go down in price near term.

 

[Brewnet]

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Single_Tasker wrote:

Hi All,

Sorry- when it comes to money matters I have the IQ of Yeast.

Bill

How fortunate for you! Because yeast makes dough double in size.....

Get it? :l

 

[Spaf]

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Single_Tasker wrote:

So, what am I missing?

Thanks! Bill

The January correction took a lot of air out of the market. The high was at 1213 (S&P 500) If the market advances past 1213 it will confirm the primary movement as bull. However, if it stops short and makes a lower high the primary movement will be bearish.

Since we don't know the future we use indicators. Tom was talking about a PMO!

http://www.decisionpoint.com/TAcourse/PMO_Course/PMO_Part04.html

Last week was an up week. What happens this week is the question. Just when you think the market is going one way, it goes another way.

Rgds Spaf

 

[tsptalk]

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Single_Tasker wrote:

Frequently I notice that when these are all up, I check the comments and see the author is moving, or has moved his money to the G Fund.

I'm lost... Aren't the C, S, & I Funds stock funds... and as such when "the market" is up don't we make money? I noticed last week there was a 3 day period when all 3 were up, but the comments suggested 50% in G.

So, what am I missing?

Hi Bill -
It's kind of like your avator (rolling a rock up an incline). The market may be stuck in a trading range right now. When that happens, each time the market goes up, it can roll right back down that incline and start all over.

We had a nice rally and the indicators tell me we may be overbought a little. If I can deflect some of the potential losses and get back in at the bottom, we'll make some money. I only went 50% G because I could be wrong and I'd like to have some exposure to stocks. Expect a move back to 100% stock funds if we have a couple of down days.

Market timing isn't for everyone. Be careful.

Tom

 

[Guest]

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tsptalk wrote:

We had a nice rally and the indicators tell me we may be overbought a little. If I can deflect some of the potential losses and get back in at the bottom, we'll make some money. I only went 50% G because I could be wrong and I'd like to have some exposure to stocks. Expect a move back to 100% stock funds if we have a couple of down days.

Market timing isn't for everyone. Be careful.

Tom

Of course, Tom, there is always the possibility that we are currentlyestablishing MT's "right shoulder" and thereby headed for an extendedbear market. Should that be confirmed, we could theoretically have severaldown days in a row and yet, your allocationmight still remain largely wedded to theGfund. In such a scenario, I fear that Bill might become even more confused than he is presently is...

 

[Rolo]

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Sisyphus!

 

[Guest]

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Another productive post by Rolo.

Why do you even bother, Rolo?

Is anyone else tired of this clown.

Investing for you and your families future is very important to a lot of people...you bring nothing to this board. When your whole retirement will be in a TSP account do you need people like ROLO on this board?

Without the eggers like this there is a lot of knowledge and great investing ideas to be shared...why bother posting when you got folks like this that just cut down and egg on.....

That is my sore point of this board...I respond to him and get six people attack me by taking something out of context.

The bottom line: Do we need people like Rolo on this board? I understand about sharing other view points but when the other view point is to attack then I believe that is not needed, wanted or desired.

The one line bashers are not needed....period.

MT

 

[Rolo]

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I was welcoming Single_Tasker to the board by recognising his avatar aloud.

Incidentally, I am not the one who is proclaiming that people follow me or my moves, Don Quixote.



-This Clown

 

[Guest]

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Insane clown posse...

Rolo unless you have something to add...take the hint and just do not even bother posting it...you throw off the flow of conversations with your piffy cutting, bashing one liners and add nothing to the reason we are on the board.

MT

P.S. Great call on CSCO as a netrual holding being a tech guy that "works" in the industry for their livelyhood.

 

[Guest]

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Funny I was getting bashed thismorning for not posting my moves...I am just providing info them to make their own choices......now I am getting bashed for telling people what to do...get bashed either way??? Seems like you just can't win....unless networth has any factor in the calculations :^

Truly Rolo...I would hope people are like me and tired of your one liners....big picture these TSP accounts will be all they have....once they wake up to that and see that then your days here will be numbered.

Great call again on CSCO...neutral. WOW! He works in the industry....WOW. Let him manage his own retirement account NOW.

Rolo wrote:

I was welcoming Single_Tasker to the board by recognising his avatar aloud.

Incidentally, I am not the one who is proclaiming that people follow me or my moves, Don Quixote.



-This Clown

 

[Rolo]

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I never said CSCO was neutral. I said it was inconsequential for 2004.

Why don't you tell the whole story? Yeah, that story being THAT MY WEBSENSE BEAT YOUR CISCO! BAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Guess you must be in the 66% of all fund managers that underperforms the market. I guess yer stocks aren't the only thing that's short!

 

[Rolo]

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MarketTimer wrote:

Insane clown posse...

Okay..now be honest...were you actually hip enough to see that or did you go to the URL to figure it out?

Oh! Maybe one of your kids saw it?

 

[Mike]

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I've actually heard them. Do I get a cookie? :l

 

[Rolo]

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Mike wrote:

I've actually heard them. Do I get a cookie? :l

Here ya go:

[align=center]D:\Documents and Settings\Rolo\Cookies\rolo@wowbb[2].txt
[/align]

 

[tsptalk]

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How about some java with that cookie?

 

[Rolo]

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hahaha, Tom. mkay

// RTG core v0.001

Randomfund = new Random( );
switch(fund.nextInt(5)){
case 1: out.println("You are now 100% G Fund.");
case 2: out.println("You are now 100%F Fund.");
case 3: out.println("You are now 100%C Fund.");
case 4: out.println("You are now 100%S Fund.");
case 5: out.println("You are now 100%I Fund.");}

v 0.002 will PM saraho when it picks the same fund three times in a row.

 

[Guest]

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Mike wrote:

I've actually heard them. Do I get a cookie? :l