Whipsaw's Account Talk

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Whipsaw said:
If the I fund continues to perform, the basically equal C, S, I distribution should ride the recovery well. Nice bottoming tail today.
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Maybe that Vee-bottom that turned out to be a Bear-flag going down -- now turned into a quick "double-Vee" bottom and that's a "W" pattern that usually goes UP for at least a while... I may need to jump into CSI from 100% G tomorrow, for awhile (? thinking about it).
 
FAAM said:
Maybe that Vee-bottom that turned out to be a Bear-flag going down -- now turned into a quick "double-Vee" bottom and that's a "W" pattern that usually goes UP for at least a while... I may need to jump into CSI from 100% G tomorrow, for awhile (? thinking about it).
Click to expand...
Nope... I didn't do it - stayed 100% G. Not only did I wake up too late to study this site & the markets for the morning (I'm on the West Coast & retired, so 0900 comes up fast), but a subscription service I use some is too uncertain on if we are at or near lows - or if it'll drop more; too much uncertainty & volatility for right now/today... and I agree. YET, my wife is still employed with 50% of her TSP in C-fund, and "we" decided to forego the notion to pull that all to G today & let it ride at least until tomorrow morning.
... That double-vee "W" pattern is still in play to possibly go up, yet reading Tom's commentary for today & the fact I can't trust this POTUS or this market right now... makes my 'spidey-senses' say hmmm- maybe not.
 
Another few percent down today, so far in futures... riveting my sticky-pants to my sorry butt at this point. Historically, I'll step aside, then miss the run up that usually comes the next day or two, a. waiting to see what happens... b. being out of IFTs at that point.
 
Now I'm reading discussion of a snap-back rally, assuming some of the tariff fears can be put to rest... thinking of rebalancing into the S-Fund as small caps should benefit from the deregulatory environment - and that I'm all in and can't deploy any dry powder. Thoughts?
 
Whipsaw said:
Now I'm reading discussion of a snap-back rally, assuming some of the tariff fears can be put to rest... thinking of rebalancing into the S-Fund as small caps should benefit from the deregulatory environment - and that I'm all in and can't deploy any dry powder. Thoughts?
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Personally, if I were in your situation I would do nothing. You will definitely get a great price by rebalancing into the S-Fund, but will be locking in a loss with the funds you will be rebalancing from. So the question is, will you get a better return if you rebalance, or is the better move is to stand pat. Either way, it's a gamble.

Good luck in whatever you decide to do. (y)
 
The s-fund has a higher beta meaning more volatility.... bigger gains, bigger losses. Nothing new. Some want that, some don't.

Smaller companies may not do as much business globally so tariffs may not impact as much, but the ones that do business overseas may be disproportionately impacted negatively.
 
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Hopefully you have outside brokerage-accounts/ investments besides TSP; and if you are old enough, can transfer a lot of your TSP funds to IRAs -- then you can manage/invest on your own timelines and in your own ways and means, not beholden to the horrible TSP IFT rules/ limits.
... if not (yet), then do what your can, grin and bare it. Good luck!
 
FAAM said:
Hopefully you have outside brokerage-accounts/ investments besides TSP; and if you are old enough, can transfer a lot of your TSP funds to IRAs -- then you can manage/invest on your own timelines and in your own ways and means, not beholden to the horrible TSP IFT rules/ limits.
... if not (yet), then do what your can, grin and bare it. Good luck!
Click to expand...
That's exactly what I have been doing since 2021 when I rolled over my TSP into an IRA. 🤘
 
Grumblings of testing the lows are out there, then there is the strength today. I may have an IFT to move back in, going to sit tight - sell in May might hit in earnest next week, who knows? :unsure:
 
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