Whipsaw's Account Talk

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I trust everyone enjoyed Turkey Day. Today's action looks good, my inclination is to jump in (would do a partial if we had more IFTs) though I'm looking at the consolidation, the declining MACD divergence, the high F/S stochs... going to wait another day or two. I should have one more IFT to move back in. I should go with my gut. :notrust: It's too late now to get in and submit anyway.
 
Whipsaw said:
I trust everyone enjoyed Turkey Day. Today's action looks good, my inclination is to jump in (would do a partial if we had more IFTs) though I'm looking at the consolidation, the declining MACD divergence, the high F/S stochs... going to wait another day or two. I should have one more IFT to move back in. I should go with my gut. :notrust: It's too late now to get in and submit anyway.
Click to expand...

DON"T do it...closer to a 3% healthy pullback, than another 3% upward move, IMHO.
 
Hah. Welp Whipsaw & FWM: I'm retired 2years now, not paying close attention to the Markets daily lately & adverse to serious TSP gambling (moved about 80% of TSP to IRAs too). So, appreciate reading your thoughts & assessments! I've been 90% G of late, decided to go part-into CSIF today over 50% now... was worried but after reading today's Commentary by Tom along with you're posts and JTH's, I figure markets may keep melting up, & I'm tired of waiting the last 3-weeks for a drop that doesn't appear to be happening, so I'm foller'n ya in there Whip, I think. Will try to watch closely & if a significant drop seems to be happening - I can IFT back to G with one IFT left in DEC to go back to CSI.
 
All but one on the AT moved to the lilly pad today, as well as several yesterday. I'm likley going to let this last IFT go and give this another day or two.
 
Whipsaw said:
All but one on the AT moved to the lilly pad today, as well as several yesterday. I'm likley going to let this last IFT go and give this another day or two.
Click to expand...

That's a good move Whipsaw, especially considering the number of folks at the top of the leader board that moved to the G fund. Best to sit back and wait for the Santa rally. :D
 
Whipsaw said:
All but one on the AT moved to the lilly pad today, as well as several yesterday. I'm likley going to let this last IFT go and give this another day or two.
Click to expand...

I feel ya, I didn't want want to let an IFT go unused, but from my "rational perspective" this isn't an area I should buy just because I don't want to waste an IFT. The tougher part is not having as much of a choice on how we enter 2024.
 
WorkFE said:
I would agree with FWM on this. The Risk vs. Reward is favoring risk.
I am however still cautiously optimistic and standing by for that 3% healthy pullback. :D
Click to expand...

FYI I'm still in 100% S but plan on exiting either tomorrow or by the middle of next week, depending on the charts, and following inflation/economy news.

A mention was made about those on the top of the Tracker, near 30% for the year exiting. They are using a long term statistical Buy/Sell plan that uses decades of data and has a proven track record to beat the market in the long haul. They knew weeks in advance that they would need to sell today (lol).
 
Updated my signature, have been in G since 14 Nov. Apologies if this threw anyone off. The AT is allway's correct.
 
Jumping out when I did was a mistake, hindsight being 20/20 - that said, the market didn't respond as it would have historically after blowing out the top of the BB. Same thing happened on Friday. My big mistake was dropping track on the weekly charts, which had no indication of needing to exit. Today's chart below, at resistance when drawing a trend line from the last two tops. The Stochs are maxed out, though the MACD and RSI look good. Had I been looking at this chart, I likley would have stayed the course and considered an exit at this point. FWIW, WDIK. :pat:

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (S&P US) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)
 
Whipsaw said:
Jumping out when I did was a mistake, hindsight being 20/20 - that said, the market didn't respond as it would have historically after blowing out the top of the BB. Same thing happened on Friday. My big mistake was dropping track on the weekly charts, which had no indication of needing to exit. Today's chart below, at resistance when drawing a trend line from the last two tops. The Stochs are maxed out, though the MACD and RSI look good. Had I been looking at this chart, I likley would have stayed the course and considered an exit at this point. FWIW, WDIK. :pat:

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (S&P US) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com (marketwatch.com)
Click to expand...

Call me an optimist, you had a 7% gain across 10 sessions, in a downtrend approaching a double top, with 3 unfilled gaps below your exit , so in my book that was an easy decision to make (at the time).
 
I share your concern and moved back into C 25%, S 75% at a very bad entry point, but what I was seeing was a market leaving me behind.

On guard now for FOMO to fade.


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS
 
Work is really getting in the way of my TSP maintenance. Once again, morning meetings, due outs, next thing you know its 1155 and inside the window for getting logged in and an IFT submitted - did I mention having to run down the hall to check my cell phone to get the secret code for logging into TSP.gov? :soapbox: I'm going on leave for the rest of this week and next, will throw something at what's left of this rally tomorrow - which will likely turn south at the submission of my IFT. :cheesy:

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year, everyone! :present:
 
Looking at a weekly chart going back 3 years for the C fund, there is a clear upward channel and we're at the top of the channel at resistance in line with the previous two peaks (Aug 22 and Jul 23). Dec 21 was the start of a huge decline, Dec 22 there was a sizable pull back. I'm guessing we could drop to the bottom of the channel through January... for whatever reason(s). Hate to miss the Santa Rally, definitely came early this year. Risk/reward right now is leaning the wrong way, and there's the post holiday reversal out there somewhere.

S&P 500 Index, SPX Advanced Chart - (S&P US) SPX, S&P 500 Index Stock Price - BigCharts.com
 
From the FWIW Department, discussion on Fox Business this morning included commentary from Dennis Gartman, his opinion of the coming year, considering conflict abroad, the Presidential election domestically this year, whether or not we see a recession... - not a dull year for the market, there will be many surprises mostly to the downside. That's kind of what I was thinking. We should see more bullish action in the short term.
 
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