Whipsaw's Account Talk

[Whipsaw]

This just in! Be prepared for a fresh round of Taper Tantrums from the market... good new for the economy will be bad news for the market

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/powell-run-fed-aims-avoid-100000099.html

 

[Whipsaw]

So the market may have some short term weakness... it's 11 February. Assuming only 1 IFT left to exit (or exit in many small bits), would post weakness bullish movement through the end of the month exceed the potential weakness? i.e. jump out to avoid a 4% drop, only to miss 5% in gains (following recovery of the 4% drop). Get it?

 

[flalaw97]

NAAIM jumped from 79 up to 110 today. VIX is very low, Slo Stochastics show S and C still embedded, still in upward channels. I think this is another November or at least December trending up for the month. I am staying in to beef up the gains until it shows it is really going down. Can absorb 3 to 4% drop, given the gains already? Good luck!

 

[rangerray]

NAAIM jumped from 79 up to 110 today. VIX is very low, Slo Stochastics show S and C still embedded, still in upward channels. I think this is another November or at least December trending up for the month. I am staying in to beef up the gains until it shows it is really going down. Can absorb 3 to 4% drop, given the gains already? Good luck!

Exactly my strategy, though hopefully.

 

[Whipsaw]

My 11 Feb post is being put to the test. Of course, this approach is market environment dependent; in this case high liquidity, stimulus, etc. supporting the market.

 

[Whipsaw]

...and awaaaaayyyy we go!

 

[Whipsaw]

C'mon dip buyers, step it up...

 

[Whipsaw]

Bang! Zoom! To the moon!

 

[Whipsaw]

Interpreting the bottom tails as strength and dip buyers stepping up; there is a pattern of higher lows... Ira E. was saying that the spike in bond rates will shake the market as higher returns can draw folks to a more stable means to get returns and leave equities, but that this should stabilize once the market realizes this isn't a bad thing. I held in S not having another IFT to re-enter; this drawdown/pullback lasting a few more days than anticipated (was optimistic we would be on the upswing a day or two earlier). Sitting tight, have a great weekend everyone!

 

[Whipsaw]

BOOM!!!

 

[Whipsaw]

Liftoff?

 

[Whipsaw]

Liftoff?

Not so much... :notrust:

 

[Whipsaw]

Some signs of life... :suspicious:

 

[russ24567]

Trying to learn how to make my own post. Sorry for getting into your post.

 

[Whipsaw]

Some signs of life... :suspicious:

yeah, again, not so much. ;damnit

 

[Whipsaw]

So, looking at the chart at the link, the S fund is bouncing off support at 2100, which has now about intersected with the 50 EMA. Looking left there are reactions at this level through the month of January, hopefully it will hold.

https://bigcharts.marketwatch.com/a...sToggle=false&chartStyleToggle=false&state=11

 

[Whipsaw]

Holy crap!

 

[Whipsaw]

Maybe I should stop posting. :nuts:

 

[mainekezar]

I feel your pain. 100%S

 

[Whipsaw]

Second day with S fund below the lower bollinger band... all things considered, rotations and interest rates, there isn't a harbinger of doom such as COVID last year, I'm watching to see if we stabilize. I can only imagine exiting now and missing the recovery, as has happened to me too many times in the last year. As usual, staying too long at the fair, failing to exit at the first indications of trouble (this of course being driven by IFT restrictions). I'm doing well in my brokerage with buying individual stocks and some SPX and letting them ride... so, holding position, maybe till I retire...