Whipsaw's Account Talk

[Whipsaw]

I didn't really sweat the move out, being so close to the end of the month. Now, its looking like a good re-entry point... unless there is a bunch of wrangling over the election outcome. I'm looking for a landslide that is beyond the reach of anything contestable.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

I'm thinking along same lines. FYI -GrokTrade has been indicating regardless of who wins Romulus thinks S&P goes up 10% over the next 4 months. Will see if that happens. Best wishes to you and everyone*!!! ... oh Small caps is also supposed to do very well....

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

At this point still debating actual entry date. ughh... momentum is up...but for how long in the short term? Thinking it might be good to try a longer term game plan... I am tired of the stress. Not sure if these two days are a dead cat bouncing on hope, or if it will turn into a run up... who knows.... ...thinking to enter at the allocation % that I exited...35%...will see....eeeeeeee

 

[Whipsaw]

I hear you, according to the kendall report, the bottom drops out at some point... not sure if that is a data point or not. Many conflicting indicators; just look at market watch on any given day, there are articles contradicting each other all over.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Yes...lots of conflicting info. I just decided, I am out until the dust settles... don't want to miss a runup but election could go either way...

 

[Whipsaw]

I smell a rat... holding in G, for now.

 

[Whipsaw]

Who was saying the election uncertainty would take the market down? Sheesh.

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

Yep.. so reentering my 35% S fund now! will then have to deploy gorilla glue...

 

[Whipsaw]

Still in the sub-sub-lower-sewer-service end of the AT... I couldn't have done anything more wrong this year. Part of me says this market timing is a fools errand, then I see some of the folks getting it right. It seems I have more work to do.

 

[ravensfan]

Still in the sub-sub-lower-sewer-service end of the AT... I couldn't have done anything more wrong this year. Part of me says this market timing is a fools errand, then I see some of the folks getting it right. It seems I have more work to do.

Know the feeling. Although my losses for 2020 are not as bad as yours, I am still negative with the prospect of getting back into the green fading fast. I have heard more than one opinion about market timing being a fools errand and looking at all the folks who are positive this year with only one or zero IFT's year to date, makes me wonder if the buy and holders aren't the smart ones.

 

[Whipsaw]

Know the feeling. Although my losses for 2020 are not as bad as yours, I am still negative with the prospect of getting back into the green fading fast. I have heard more than one opinion about market timing being a fools errand and looking at all the folks who are positive this year with only one or zero IFT's year to date, makes me wonder if the buy and holders aren't the smart ones.

On a good note, all but one of the stock buys I made in my Vanguard account, around May/Jun, went green this month.

 

[nasa1974]

Know the feeling. Although my losses for 2020 are not as bad as yours, I am still negative with the prospect of getting back into the green fading fast. I have heard more than one opinion about market timing being a fools errand and looking at all the folks who are positive this year with only one or zero IFT's year to date, makes me wonder if the buy and holders aren't the smart ones.

Some of it is just luck and being silly enough to take a chance.

 

[quabit]

Some of it is just luck and being silly enough to take a chance.

I wonder if time left to invest is also a factor in trying to time the market. Earlier in my career I had no problem trying to time everything. Now that I a few years away from retirement I'm like a scared rat thinking there is a snake just outside. I looked back at my trades in the spring to see where I would be today had I just bought and held but it just depressed me. I am positive so that's a good thing but there is a greedy part of me wanting more when I should be happy. I have a dollar amount that I want in my account when I retire and if I could just make a measly 2.5-3% a year I would reach it. Thanks to them cutting rates the G fund is useless and even though I'm sitting in the L right now I am wondering what the end result would be since it is 70 something percent G invested if the market wasn't reaching new highs. Would it make about 3% if the C, S, etc only made its average?

 

[DreamboatAnnie]

This is a tough year and fear is hard to erase when your close to retirement or in retirement. I keep missing the entry points so miss out on ruse and then overstay. 35% in is all I can bear at this point. hmm.... Best wishes to you Whipsaw and to everyone! Hoping tge coming year is better for everyone!

 

[flalaw97]

I wonder if time left to invest is also a factor in trying to time the market. Earlier in my career I had no problem trying to time everything. Now that I a few years away from retirement I'm like a scared rat thinking there is a snake just outside. I looked back at my trades in the spring to see where I would be today had I just bought and held but it just depressed me. I am positive so that's a good thing but there is a greedy part of me wanting more when I should be happy. I have a dollar amount that I want in my account when I retire and if I could just make a measly 2.5-3% a year I would reach it. Thanks to them cutting rates the G fund is useless and even though I'm sitting in the L right now I am wondering what the end result would be since it is 70 something percent G invested if the market wasn't reaching new highs. Would it make about 3% if the C, S, etc only made its average?

I am not as close to retirement (Unless this month gets on groundhog day repeat) but I still haven't figured out what will magically change on the day I retire? As long as I am not taking out huge dollars on the day that I retire, I am still looking at living for 20+ years after retirement so isn't the investment window still that long? Even a significant down year won't outweigh five or six positive years and like you said, if I can't count on the G fund to reliably pull close to inflation, putting all the money there is just losing money slowly.

 

[ravensfan]

So here is what is so frustrating for me. As you know, I am retired, which means I can no longer contribute or get gubment matching. The only way I add to my bottom line is to be in the market when it is going up.

I use one the the spreadsheets that Tom provides to keep track of my trades. As an example of how things have been going this year my last 3 trades have gone like this:

In October I was 50% C fund, 50% S Fund...I lost 6.13% for that trade.
I then reduced exposure and that trade netted me a gain of 3.53%, a little more than half of what I lost in October, while the C fund was up 8.63% and the S fund was up 8.98%
And the current trade I am in 100% G fund a gain of 0.02% while the C fund has gained 2.20% and the S fund has gained 3.21%

Somehow I have developed this uncanny knack to be 100% invested when the market is going down and then only being partially invested or sitting in the G fund when the market is going up.

Yep Whipsaw I have to agree with you that timing the market is definitely a fools errand.

 

[ALRetiree]

I read an article not too long ago that showed that the big gains happened on about 20 days in a span of a few years. If you were out of the market on those days then your return was bad. If you stayed invested for the period then your return was great.

i appreciate people trying to do research and max out their gains and some are good at it but I think luck plays into that. I like reading the forums here and I gain a nice perspective. I’m less than a year from retirement and my tsp is in good shape so I’m not timing the market for sure, not that I ever have anyway. I’m sure there are many more market savvy people than me here but for those that max their tsp and stay invested I can assure you that you will be happy when you get to retirement time.

 

[quabit]

I am not as close to retirement (Unless this month gets on groundhog day repeat) but I still haven't figured out what will magically change on the day I retire? As long as I am not taking out huge dollars on the day that I retire, I am still looking at living for 20+ years after retirement so isn't the investment window still that long? Even a significant down year won't outweigh five or six positive years and like you said, if I can't count on the G fund to reliably pull close to inflation, putting all the money there is just losing money slowly.

What you say is 100% true and I wouldn't care as much if it was only I needing it for my retirement. I had a friend close to retirement in 08 and when the market crashed he lost a ton and ended up having to work additional years until the market returned. Unfortunately he was in his mid 60s when that happen and had a stroke shortly after. He's still alive but his plans changed quickly and he can't travel even though he has the money back. I know you can't plan on health issues but when I retire, we want to travel a bit while I'm in my early 60s.

I suppose I have been gun shy since that happened to my friend and knowing its my spouses retirement I am a bit cautious. She has been a stay at home mom so she never built up enough qtrs to get her own SS. She will use mine and what's in the TSP. I leaning toward a partial annuity for her as much as I hate them, only because she isn't great with money and I would like a steady income for her should I pass. Her history leads me to believe that she would cash out and spend everything if I just left it invested. I just reach having covered enough for the annuity part but I as I said we want to travel so that is the part I am working on. That is where my contributions are going toward but I just started while I leave the rest in a safer fund such as the L. I just need to make 2.5-3% and it will set us to get a nice monthly stream to travel on.

I know most financial people preach inflation etc and they are right but I feel sometimes it doesn't always apply to everyone's situation. What I mean is, I will have 2 pensions, SS, and a disability that will all be cola adjusted so does it matter as much about the TSP needing to make at least the inflation rate? Again the goal of it is to mostly have enough to get the annuity and anything else is an extra trip to the Bahamas. Oh and the kids are covered should something happen to us both.

 

[flalaw97]

It sounds like you have worked it through and certainly if you are planning to do alot of travel as soon as you retire, you will be taking out bigger chunks earlier in your retirement than later. Let's hope the market just keeps a steady up tick with only smaller setbacks. Best of luck to you!

 

[Whipsaw]

Checking in from the bottom of the AT, fifth from the bottom, I think I've been as high as #3, so I've run the gamut. Just waiting for the next market crash for an entry point.