Whipsaw's Account Talk

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airlift said:
IMO you did right by waiting a bit more, perhaps tomorrow... ? Reason, uncerainty is still strong regarding Greece and the Fed. But we could be witnessing a short-covering rally for a couple of days. If we see that the Greek intransigence continues until Wednesday, without any positive action from Greece -- not even by Greece stating clearly that they are willing to meet Germany's offer to accept Greece's commitment and affirmative actions to comply with only one of the requirements for reform that other European nations have accepted, then I think Greece will have to take a leave of some sort from the Euro. The effects are hard to foretell, but Cramer thinks that the riskier position for Europe would be to underestimate the possibility that Grexit might really have a negative impact, and that the creditor banks could short Greek stocks to the point of causing a big downturn. If so, this could have an unwanted effect beyond Greek borders. Although I could be proven wrong by last minute concessions from the EU, the risks of a shake up starting in Europe are increasing. This is not an easy decision, but capital preservation is still one of the pillars of effective investing. As I see it, the Fed is better off holding rates as they are now, until later. Good luck to all!
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Airlift, thanks! This plus some of the Elliot Wave Theory discussions has my finger on the bail button; would like to see a percent or two up before that. The last time Greece fixed its issues, the market shot up significantly, can it happen again?
 
Whipsaw said:
Airlift, thanks! This plus some of the Elliot Wave Theory discussions has my finger on the bail button; would like to see a percent or two up before that. The last time Greece fixed its issues, the market shot up significantly, can it happen again?
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I can't help but believe that the Greece thing is very temporary. As soon as it passes there will be a big sigh of relief and a return to the previous upward channel. I am staying put during this dip...and looks like I am pretty much invested the same %'s as you. Of course, in the short term, June really sucks!
 
Based on reports, and with Putin romancing Greece's PM, my guess is that Greece's new currency is the ruble. Not good for NATO. Interesting times.

FS
 
FogSailing said:
Based on reports, and with Putin romancing Greece's PM, my guess is that Greece's new currency is the ruble. Not good for NATO. Interesting times.

FS
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Agree. I thought it odd that Greece's PM going to meet Putin at economic summit in Russia late this week.
 
Whipsaw said:
Looks like we're climing out from this morning's open... something happened? Holding position!
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Hi Whipsaw, After the Bell on Fox Business News indicated this mornings drop was due to Greece but then perceived weak manufacturing numbers came out and so market took it to mean Fed would hold off on rate hikes, so that was considered good so markets went up. Hummmm......:rolleyes:
 
Hi. Was looking at the charts for Wilshire 4500 this afternoon. The trading lines today formed a descending triangle, the MACD while in positive territory appeared to be trending downward while the RSI was in positive territory....so mixed signals. This will be quite a week. Will the Greeks capitulate? Will the Europeans capitulate? Will Yellen give us a clear signal on Fed policy. There is just so much uncertainty in the air. This Greek tragedy is one story that just doesn't want to end. I'm out till July now. The toughest thing for me is that I think the markets really want these matters resolved so they can get on with business. The economy is in good shape. It would be SO nice to just deal with seasonality.:nuts:

FS
 
Whipsaw said:
Up at the open! GO BABY! :banana:
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You're my inspiration Whipsaw. Every time I think about bailing, I look at your allocation and year to date returns and decide to stick a little longer. I do not think Yellen will raise rates anytime this year which will bode well for the S Fund. However, Greece has been a real downer for the I Fund. Of course, anything positive out of there will send the I Fund into overdrive...With that said, sticky pants are deployed!!!:nuts:
 
FogSailing said:
Hi. Was looking at the charts for Wilshire 4500 this afternoon. The trading lines today formed a descending triangle, the MACD while in positive territory appeared to be trending downward while the RSI was in positive territory....so mixed signals. This will be quite a week. Will the Greeks capitulate? Will the Europeans capitulate? Will Yellen give us a clear signal on Fed policy. There is just so much uncertainty in the air. This Greek tragedy is one story that just doesn't want to end. I'm out till July now. The toughest thing for me is that I think the markets really want these matters resolved so they can get on with business. The economy is in good shape. It would be SO nice to just deal with seasonality.:nuts:

FS
Click to expand...
Agree the market has mixed signals. The problem there is just a bias (downward) but really no trend at least for the S fund (DWCPF). I only have 15% in S fund and rest in G, so I think I will see what happens with the Fed.

As for the I fund... well it also has a downward bias for good reason. But long term I think it goes back up. Question is how much farther will it drop in the short term?

Greece should not be a huge issue, but it is only because it hints at a possibility of the European Union weakening and some day possibly falling apart....plus the EU community is tired of lending it money and bailing it out. Both (EU and Greece) are hell bent on not giving up more.

In any case, there is still Spain, Italy and I can't remember the last one... lol.. do I sound like Perry?? lol ..Well there are three that are having financial problems. But that will come later. So there is more volatility to come for Europe. And maybe us too in the future if we do not get that debt down. China buys a lot of our bonds... what happens if they decide to stop buying? Who will buy our bonds then?????

So, June 30 is the IMF payment deadline but then there are more after that so this could be drawn out. I think its very possible I fund will go up ....but right now it is tanking. Might be a nice time to buy in, but I will be conservative and patient and wait.

If I were in it, it would be very tough to figure out what to do. It depends on how much you are willing to risk. It will go back up I think, but then I look at fact that it is not nearly as low as it was 6 months ago... so it can stand to drop more. Long term I should think the trend is up. But are we better off cutting our losses now and then buying back in at a lower price (provided it does not shoot up with a deal)??? That is the big question. Some may choose to ride it down and back up. Then some that sell now would need to consider can they jump in at the bottom? That is hard to time but is possible. Well... I've been long winded ...have a great day!

I wish everyone the best on their investments!!!!!! :smile:
 
DBA,
Agree with all above, as for "Long term I should think the trend is up. But are we better off cutting our losses now and then buying back in at a lower price" I agree, and to address the question; I have nothing to go on but I think there will be some surprise solution to Greece (as the last one was), and the market will take off. At this point, I think the point of getting out and back in lower has passed; getting out now will likely mean buying in at a higher price than at exit. I am keeping an eye on the levels in the vid on FWM's thread.
 
DreamboatAnnie said:
Agree the market has mixed signals. The problem there is just a bias (downward) but really no trend at least for the S fund (DWCPF). I only have 15% in S fund and rest in G, so I think I will see what happens with the Fed.

As for the I fund... well it also has a downward bias for good reason. But long term I think it goes back up. Question is how much farther will it drop in the short term?

Greece should not be a huge issue, but it is only because it hints at a possibility of the European Union weakening and some day possibly falling apart....plus the EU community is tired of lending it money and bailing it out. Both (EU and Greece) are hell bent on not giving up more.

In any case, there is still Spain, Italy and I can't remember the last one... lol.. do I sound like Perry?? lol ..Well there are three that are having financial problems. But that will come later. So there is more volatility to come for Europe. And maybe us too in the future if we do not get that debt down. China buys a lot of our bonds... what happens if they decide to stop buying? Who will buy our bonds then?????

So, June 30 is the IMF payment deadline but then there are more after that so this could be drawn out. I think its very possible I fund will go up ....but right now it is tanking. Might be a nice time to buy in, but I will be conservative and patient and wait.

If I were in it, it would be very tough to figure out what to do. It depends on how much you are willing to risk. It will go back up I think, but then I look at fact that it is not nearly as low as it was 6 months ago... so it can stand to drop more. Long term I should think the trend is up. But are we better off cutting our losses now and then buying back in at a lower price (provided it does not shoot up with a deal)??? That is the big question. Some may choose to ride it down and back up. Then some that sell now would need to consider can they jump in at the bottom? That is hard to time but is possible. Well... I've been long winded ...have a great day!

I wish everyone the best on their investments!!!!!! :smile:
Click to expand...

Hi DBA. All good points. I think the market is just looking for a reason to continue the bull. If I were the monetary game, I'd be thinking about ways to bring the dollar down so that exports would rise. Good for everybody at least in the short term. But I've decided to stay out now until "Greece Greece Greece" is settled. I hear you on limited risk exposure right now. That's probably where I'm headed in July. All the best in your investing.

FS
 
I found the minutes very interesting also Whipsaw. The fed isn't raising rates yet because Americans aren't spending and because wages are lacking. So I asked myself: "Self, why should American's spend more money?" I can think of four simple reasons "just to be coy": (1) things cost less or (2) people make more money (3) you are a younger person and there is new stuff to buy worth going into debt for or putting on lay-away (4) and you really need or want something (regardless of age). One of the interesting things about living in our country verses the third world is you guessed it ....most of us have a lot of stuff, especially when compared to third world nations. That holds especially true for those of us in our middle or senior years.. That's why we are still the ENVY of most of the world and people come to this country. They want what we have but initially I doubt they can afford a pot to p*** in. So we (i.e. those with good paying jobs or retirements)buy what we need but why should we buy "more stuff" than we need? And...expecting companies to shell out more bucks for wages would appear to be a bit of a pipe dream. OK; Wal-Mart bent a little but the truth is that many Americans are not receiving a living wage today; and the most that many people (especially the younger generation) can afford are the simple basics. But..the good news today is that the economy is still improving.. albeit slowly. I apologize for all the blather, but couldn't myself. I'm a capitalist, but I still think corporations should be held to a higher standard when it comes to social responsibility. Thanks for indulging my FedRant. It's been a while since I let my freak flag fly..:D:D:D

FS
 
FS, thanks! I agree! Then you consider what happened at Disney and the TPP, illegals flooding the country, and it makes you scratch your head. Stopping here, will have to move the POL forum...

At any rate, Futures are UP! :cool:
 
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