Whipsaw's Account Talk

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But you haven't used any for April yet, right? Are you saying you would have if we could enter twice in a month? That certainly would change my investing strategy.
 
My efforts to time the TSP account has failed, I should stick to flipping a 1-sided coin...
 
Wow... had I more moves I likely would have jumped in, I was even looking at a 50% move... Considering what is going on in the market at the moment, that would have been text book capitulation. :worried: How often I am my own contrarian indicator!

What is also amazing is how the turn happend at 12:01! >.<
 
Whipsaw said:
Futures no looka so good...
Click to expand...

I was itching to get in a few days ago and saw the news on Greece. Now I realize I've been out almost a month! Missing that last run up was a bummer, looking for a new entry point, the market is now down below my last exit - about half way to the 26 March low.
 
It's OK to collect G Fund for a while. You have done well. Pick a day in the last week of the month and go into May invested. If I hadn't slow rolled out of my TSP holdings I would probably do that. This is not trading advice and all those other disclaimers.

Whipsaw said:
I was itching to get in a few days ago and saw the news on Greece. Now I realize I've been out almost a month! Missing that last run up was a bummer, looking for a new entry point, the market is now down below my last exit - about half way to the 26 March low.
Click to expand...
 
This meltup is getting to me. Haven't been able to jump back in expecting a drop... looking to be reinvested for May, working to be in for the first of the month has been dicey recently. Mabey the S-fund dip will have some follow through monday for the cup/handle formation then a run up. Who knows! Greece? Unemployment should be about 35% now with our population growth of unemployable illegal aliens. Will be in class all next week, won't be able to monitor the goings on. Tom, put the 'like' back in! Heck, at least its Friday. :-/
 
Whipsaw said:
This meltup is getting to me. Haven't been able to jump back in expecting a drop... looking to be reinvested for May, working to be in for the first of the month has been dicey recently. Mabey the S-fund dip will have some follow through monday for the cup/handle formation then a run up. Who knows! Greece? Unemployment should be about 35% now with our population growth of unemployable illegal aliens. Will be in class all next week, won't be able to monitor the goings on. Tom, put the 'like' back in! Heck, at least its Friday. :-/
Click to expand...

I did something similar in mid-April Whipsaw. Got out just before the Dow sank 200+ points. Glad to miss that loss. Trouble is I'm conflicted on May. The market news is saying a lot of "Don't worry be happy!! Things are marvelous...just marvelous....the market is going to go gangbusters"....You know the hype.... and truth be told, the earning reports were better than I expected given the long cold winter, the technical data isn't showing ominous, the S&P and Nasdaq hit new highs, and how about those mergers. My gut tells me that May is probably the last real opportunity to play this year? However, I am concerned about a significant downturn in the market. .....the question I wrestle with in retirement is how much risk an I comfortable with. This geezer thinking is in direct conflict to my inner child who says to "play in May"...Maybe I can figure out a way to balance the risk going into summer...Thanks for your posts and contributions..:nuts::D

FS
 
FogSailing said:
I did something similar in mid-April Whipsaw. Got out just before the Dow sank 200+ points. Glad to miss that loss. Trouble is I'm conflicted on May. The market news is saying a lot of "Don't worry be happy!! Things are marvelous...just marvelous....the market is going to go gangbusters"....You know the hype.... and truth be told, the earning reports were better than I expected given the long cold winter, the technical data isn't showing ominous, the S&P and Nasdaq hit new highs, and how about those mergers. My gut tells me that May is probably the last real opportunity to play this year? However, I am concerned about a significant downturn in the market. .....the question I wrestle with in retirement is how much risk an I comfortable with. This geezer thinking is in direct conflict to my inner child who says to "play in May"...Maybe I can figure out a way to balance the risk going into summer...Thanks for your posts and contributions..:nuts::D

FS
Click to expand...

"irrational exuberance" Sell "extreme bearish" Buy. Keep your finger over the Sell button. I believe we are in the irrational exuberance phase.
 
Thanks 99 Percent. That is what my better angels are also saying. The world is an ever changing place. A few days ago, I was reading about the concerns of a number of geophysicists because the number of earthquakes around the globe have been subsiding, then the Nepal earthquake hit. Earlier today, I was reading Oil Slick and found Jame's question to Nnut very interesting, "What happens to oil if we strike a nuclear deal with Iran?" It never ceases to amaze me. I liked burrocrats market analogy to "Pat" on SNL. Made me LOL. That the reason I enjoy this forum so much. I haven't been posting for some time. I took such a hit in 2008/2009, that it has taken me some time to regain my composure. I'm more risk averse these days. All the best.

FS
 
328 new likes! :D

Thanks for all the great comments guys; I will be watching... always watching...
 
Whipsaw said:
So... now it seems bad news is bad news for the Market; economy uncertain so no rate hike (used to be good for the market), now the market heads south! :blink:

With economy uncertain, no Fed rate hike is seen before fall - Yahoo Finance
Click to expand...

Gosh.. I was kinda of betting on bad news being good for market later this week. aI bought a little into S (15%) and C fund (20%) today. Maybe a "possible" negative GDP as opposed to just a low number is driving the small dip today. I think number comes out Wednesday. If it actually turns out to be negative I hope it doesn't nosedive. Uggghhhh..... But I am primarily in I fund (50%) at this point. Have never liked this fund but.... I will try to stay invested...it seems promising as does the C fund.
 
I Fund was the place to be this month. I was going to go 50:50 S & I for April but chickened out on the last day and went 100% S. Maybe I should develop a method that goes contrarian to my fears. :)
 
Cactus said:
I Fund was the place to be this month. I was going to go 50:50 S & I for April but chickened out on the last day and went 100% S. Maybe I should develop a method that goes contrarian to my fears. :)
Click to expand...

I am often my own contrarian indicator; tough part is recognizing that! Futures heading south...
 
Cactus said:
I Fund was the place to be this month. I was going to go 50:50 S & I for April but chickened out on the last day and went 100% S. Maybe I should develop a method that goes contrarian to my fears. :)
Click to expand...

use the "George Costanza" method.
 
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