Whipsaw's Account Talk

[Whipsaw]

We're at resistance, do we break through? :rambo:

 

[ravensfan]

We're at resistance, do we break through? :rambo:

As the song says "Break on through to the other side...break on through to the other side".:nuts:

 

[Whipsaw]

Maybe the S-Train charges through the quadruple-top today!

 

[Whipsaw]

If I'm reading this right, S-Fund is the place to be... anyone else seeing the same thing?

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/s...investors-to-go-now-11623151244?mod=home-page

 

[Whipsaw]

Going through some of my notes, resurrecting this article as this month has 5 Fridays, and one of the 7 really bad weeks is the week after that... so first week of August.

https://jayonthemarkets.com/2019/08/28/the-worst-weeks/

 

[mmk119]

so does that make a buying opportunity? get out the week before when market is historically high; get in during the week it is historically low?

 

[Whipsaw]

Sounds like a good plan! That's what I'm thinking, anyway. Various outlets are also talking of a correction in August. Plus, there will be a fresh set of IFTs... *Past performance is no guarantee... blah blah blah :cheesy:

so does that make a buying opportunity? get out the week before when market is historically high; get in during the week it is historically low?

 

[Whipsaw]

So next week is supposed to be one of the worst weeks (see previous post) in one of the historically worst months for the market. Should be interesting. September takes us into the last month of the quarter where re-balancing can occur in the last week or so. (this is another nasty week, the week after September week 3, same article at the link above).

 

[felixthecat]

So next week is supposed to be one of the worst weeks (see previous post) in one of the historically worst months for the market. Should be interesting. September takes us into the last month of the quarter where re-balancing can occur in the last week or so. (this is another nasty week, the week after September week 3, same article at the link above).

I believe there is just enough bad inflation news and a whole bunch of negative covid news coming that we still have not priced into the markets. So…I have a wait and see approach at the moment. I’m also too close to retirement to be at the top of the Autotrack so don’t plan to hold on to that slot much longer. Either that or decouple from my real tsp. *

 

[Whipsaw]

Strong start for a historically bad week. I'm also suspicious of potential bad news throwing cold water on the market, some analysts warning of a looming correction.

 

[Whipsaw]

...AAAAND AWAAAAY WE GO! :Flush:

 

[Whipsaw]

I'm surprised at the strength today with the announcement of Fed tapering starting this year. Maybe its related to the temporary inflation statement. With the article saying tapering will be pinned to jobs data, I think we get back into good news being bad for the market, again.

 

[Whipsaw]

My notes indicate trouble brews in September due to the end of the Fiscal Year and money managers doing what ever they do. There are 7 bad weeks, the next one is supposed to be after the 3rd week of September, so 20 Sep.

Have a great Labor Day, everyone!

 

[mmk119]

Whipsaw, what are the other bad weeks?

 

[Whipsaw]

Here is the source article for 'The Worst Weeks' :

The Worst Weeks | Jay On The Markets

 

[Whipsaw]

So, what are the thoughts out there about the pending tapering under consideration for November?

Market giveth a Taper Tantrum?

 

[Whipsaw]

If I'm interpreting correctly, next week would be one of the "Nasty 7," FWIW, I don't think the week in September did anything remarkable. :blink:

Here is the source article for 'The Worst Weeks' :

The Worst Weeks | Jay On The Markets

 

[flalaw97]

If I'm interpreting correctly, next week would be one of the "Nasty 7," FWIW, I don't think the week in September did anything remarkable. :blink:

I think you are right, next week is the week after Oct week 3 so by the article's premise we would pull our money tomorrow and sit out next week and get back in on October 25th. Sept 2021 "nasty week" was 9/20 to 9/24. Since this is based on S&P 500 we would look to what happened to C fund that week. Getting out on the friday before (9/17) share price was $66.66 and back in on the following Monday (9/27) was $66.82 so we would have actually missed a small gain. That being said, that Monday and Tuesday (9/20, 9/21) had a decent drop but it was made up by the end of the week.

Interesting article though.

 

[tsptalk]

So, what are the thoughts out there about the pending tapering under consideration for November?

Market giveth a Taper Tantrum?

The market may decline leading up to it, and then the Fed will say, "never mind."

 

[Whipsaw]

So much for the 'nasty weeks' play. The last one and this one had no significant decline. I'm thinking the market infrastructure, BOTs, online no-fee trading, now RobinHood, has changed so much that these historical looks are no longer valid.