Weekly Update

Sentiment appears to have shifted a bit from bullish to bearish, but many are holding through the volatility and downward bias.




The Top 50 shifted more funds to cash this past week and now hold only about 22% equities.




The Total Tracker also shifted to a more bearish stance, dropping equity exposure for the first time in a month, but still holding over a 50% position in stocks, or more than double that of the Top 50.



The Top 15 are also holding more stocks than the Top 50 by more than 2 to 1.

 

[JTH]

Coolhand, I usually gauge my sentiment with yours, but with the recent two week decline, I'm somewhat surprised overall sentiment isn't more bearish than what your projecting. Am I out of touch with reality, or is there something else I'm missing here? I guess I'm wondering why the crowd isn't more bearish?

 

[coolhand]

In the relatively short time I've tracked the entire list, I've noticed that movements are relatively tame. I would have to attribute that to the fact that we only have 2 IFTs to work with. I also think that many folks who are holding cash will continue to do so for the long term. Same can be said for stocks.

Our tracker is not exactly overflowing with folks who can time this volatility well. Many have probably spread their risk out and make only minor adjustments as needed.

Being bullish or bearish in any given week with TSP does not necessarily mean taking account action to reflect ones sentiment, again going back to our inflexibility with trading this account.

In summary, I think 3% or 4% moves in any given week is about all the activity we're likely to see in most cases (Total Tracker only).

Coolhand, I usually gauge my sentiment with yours, but with the recent two week decline, I'm somewhat surprised overall sentiment isn't more bearish than what your projecting. Am I out of touch with reality, or is there something else I'm missing here? I guess I'm wondering why the crowd isn't more bearish?

 

[JTH]

In the relatively short time I've tracked the entire list, I've noticed that movements are relatively tame. I would have to attribute that to the fact that we only have 2 IFTs to work with. I also think that many folks who are holding cash will continue to do so for the long term. Same can be said for stocks.

Our tracker is not exactly overflowing with folks who can time this volatility well. Many have probably spread their risk out and make only minor adjustments as needed.

Being bullish or bearish in any given week with TSP does not necessarily mean taking account action to reflect ones sentiment, again going back to our inflexibility with trading this account.

In summary, I think 3% or 4% moves in any given week is about all the activity we're likely to see in most cases (Total Tracker only).

Thanks, it makes sense, the IFT limitations have totally changed the way I trade, some for the better, some for the worse.