Watching the Banks

[crws]

round and round she goes, where she stops...
Is Bank Of America WikiLeaks’ Next Target?

only the market knows?

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

I hope someone looks into when this guy trades the stock market and when he releases info..............................:suspicious:

 

[crws]

I hope someone looks into when this guy trades the stock market and when he releases info..............................:suspicious:

How could BofA LOOSE a hard drive full of data??? From an Exec?
Truly amazing.

Now an eagle-eyed reader has sent me a link to a quote from a Computer World interview
with Assange from October of 2009, which, if true, may contain a clue to that bank’s identity:

“At the moment, for example, we are sitting on five gigabytes from Bank of America,
one of the executive’s hard drives,” he said. “Now how do we present that? It’s a difficult problem.
We could just dump it all into one giant Zip file, but we know for a fact that has limited impact.
To have impact, it needs to be easy for people to dive in and search it and get something out of it.”

 

[crws]

Ally Bank's Straight Talk Is Crooked

When we last wrote about Ally, we noted how the company promised it "won't deal in half-truths, kindatruths, or truths only buried in fine print.
That's because we don't have anything to hide. We're always going to give it to you straight."

Two years later, Ally continues to promote honesty and straight talk while still on the taxpayers' dime.

Just like Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner, who calls those not paying their mortgages "responsible homeowners" or President Obama,
whose administration adamantly holds forth that "gamblers playing with other people's money" caused the economic collapse, the ads require a willing suspension of objective reality.

Dump 'em & go local.
one caveat: I do agree with Obama's statement

 

[crws]

a couple hundred more reasons why .gov won't let BofA fail...

-they'd have to switch banks!

 

[Bullitt]

Financial markets need increased lending, buyout activity, and underwriting to keep forging ahead. Therefore, it only makes sense for the financials to lead the market.

Generally still bullish with good breakouts in 2013. XLF looks stronger than KRE most likely due to that fact that TBTF are in a better position to reap the benefits of a zero interest rate policy.

XLF includes all the too big to fails.


KRE tracks regional banks.

 

[Birchtree]

I had the good fortune back in the day to purchase many toxic financials for both myself and my daughter. They are now part of our core holdings. It took much courage and a willingness to throw money away - but I have no regrets. Now if I can be as successful with my coal holdings.

 

[hotwings]

I had the good fortune back in the day to purchase many toxic financials for both myself and my daughter. They are now part of our core holdings. It took much courage and a willingness to throw money away - but I have no regrets. Now if I can be as successful with my coal holdings.

Me too... picked up BAC, JPM, C, WFC , KEY and HBAN at their lows and now they are blooming. Picked up a few more BTU this morning at $18.50 and I expect to see it bloom in a year or two as well. Coal consumption in the USA might level off or go down, however, the emerging economies like China and India are going to need it. The five largest coal users - China, USA, India, Russia and Japan - account for 76% of total global coal use. According to the IEA Clean Coal Centre, there are over 2300 coal-fired power stations worldwide (7000 individual units). Approximately 620 of these power stations are in China. With BTU being the 3rd largest coal producing company in the world, I think it's a decent intermediate/long term investment.

Frequently Asked Questions - World Coal Association

 

[Bullitt]

Reality is starting to set in for the banks in a zero interest rate policy environment. The more the banks drop, the more likely dividend cuts are to occur, but if buybacks are suspended, free cash could keep dividends from disappearing.

Wells Fargo (WFC), one of the largest U.S. banks, has acknowledged that it will be a casualty. It announced late last month that its third-quarter dividend will need to be reduced, from its current 51 cents a share.

Research firm IHS Markit is projecting that the bank’s payout will be slashed by 60%, to 20 cents a share.

One tail wind for dividends is that many companies—large banks in particular— have cut back on share repurchases. Instead of directing cash to what had become a popular way to return capital to shareholders in recent decades, companies might now have spare cash for dividends.

Last year, Nijenhuis says, S&P 500 members spent roughly $800 billion on buybacks. He expects that figure to be halved this year. “That does make paying a dividend much easier,” he observes.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/di...wave-heres-how-to-avoid-a-wipeout-51594306801

 

[Bullitt]

Sitting on moving average and trendline support. Need the "value stocks" to join in if the market isn't going to collapse. What's it going to be?

 

[Bullitt]

While Robinhooders watch TSLA, NKLA, AAPL, the banks put in a higher low.

 

[Bullitt]

XLF now above June highs.

 

[Bullitt]

Second weekly close above June highs, leaning bullish towards a recovery.

 

[nasa1974]

That large gap is a little scary.

 

[Bullitt]

About a month ago, we highlighted a bearish divergence in the semiconductor ETF (SMH) that indicated a potential rotation away from this growth-oriented group into more value plays. That rotation played out fairly well, as the SMH has indeed pulled back and broken its swing low from February.

Now we are detecting a similar bearish pattern in the Financial Sector ETF NYSEARCA: XLF as well as many of the big financial stocks and regional bank names.

Video could have been one minute instead of ten, but David Kellar is calling for a move lower in banks. Sure doesn't help that NMR and CS are down over 10% today.

https://www.seeitmarket.com/bearish-trigger-for-financials-sector-etf-xlf/

 

[Bullitt]

The Fed last week said 23 of the largest banks had adequate capital to withstand a crisis, a necessary hurdle for banks to pass to return money to shareholders. The central bank had restricted shareholder payouts during the pandemic, asking banks to preserve capital in case the recession led to a wave of soured loans.

MS, GS, BAC, JPM, WFC all increasing dividends by a substantial amount after getting the green light. A very bullish move.

Banks are probably the best all around value play that's left out there. Oil sector can get another push higher, but it's very cyclical, prone to big swings, and will sell off well before the numbers start to show peaking inventories. Sold my only oil sector stock two weeks which I picked up when oil was some $30 cheaper. The fed turmoil hit my stop and even though there is probably more upside, oil stocks are always just a swing trade for me and this just happened to be a wonderful snap back rally.

Bank stocks though, those are long term holds, especially when dividends are rising.

 

[James48843]

MS, GS, BAC, JPM, WFC all increasing dividends by a substantial amount after getting the green light. A very bullish move.

Banks are probably the best all around value play that's left out there. Oil sector can get another push higher, but it's very cyclical, prone to big swings, and will sell off well before the numbers start to show peaking inventories. Sold my only oil sector stock two weeks which I picked up when oil was some $30 cheaper. The fed turmoil hit my stop and even though there is probably more upside, oil stocks are always just a swing trade for me and this just happened to be a wonderful snap back rally.

Bank stocks though, those are long term holds, especially when dividends are rising.

I just looked at MS and GS.

Both are at their highest point since 2008, and before that, since the 2000 bubble crash.

Am I seeing it wrong? Banks seem in the same territory they’ve been in during recent crashes.



Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

 

[tsptalk]

Here's the monthly chart of GS and MS going back to 1999...

 

[Bullitt]

On a valuation basis, financials are the "cheapest" sector out there and are still well below 2000 and 2008 valuations. See charts below.

https://www.yardeni.com/pub/mktbriefsppesecind.pdf

Banks also passed their stress tests and have been allowed to begin buybacks and dividend increases as a result. Their balance sheets are in much better shape than 2008. The problem right now is rates aren't doing what the market expected them too. Rates are actually dropping again despite all this hyper inflation nonsense. Banks would be more profitable if rates were higher since low rates are somewhat of a headwind.

Financials also are underweight the S&P 500 relative to historical standards. (Currently, financials are around 11.27%, chart below only goes to Oct 2020. Side note: IT is either in a new paradigm or the danger zone.)

https://einvestingforbeginners.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/sector-weight-3.png

As far as the technical analysis goes, I think it has some bearing on the short term, possibly intermediate term, but resistance lines from 12 or 21 years ago don't mean anything.

 

[Bullitt]

Big week for banks earnings and so far not looking too good. Actually, they are good, but it's another case of "how will the market react". In this case, the news has been solid, but they're selling off. Yields are the biggest drag right now. Low yields are detrimental to bank earnings going forward.