Volume "where are you I Fund Warriors"

[TEUFEL HUNDEN]

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Anyone notice the low volume of the I fund in the EFA index. Things might look good for the home team. Any thoughts?

 

[tsptalk]

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I don't get the correlation. Why is low volume good?

 

[Rolo]

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Ya, low volume is only not bad on drops...but not good on level/going up...lacks strength.

Pressure may be building either way, though, particularly SPX.

 

[TEUFEL HUNDEN]

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I am still trying to gain a grasp on this. On the 16th of Feb there was high volume, but the I fund DROPPED, any idea as to why? I'm sure that the US $ value had something to do with it. I try to keep up, it all depends on my work load here. Some days are rather @#$*!. This is why I am glad I found your site. You can get good views and insight from many here with out having to spend hours looking.

If there is too much volume does that mean it could possibly be overbought?



saraho wrote:

vectorman wrote:

Hi Saraho, I always appreciate your thoughts on the I fund. I noticed today that there was very heavy volume for the EFA index. Could this be the start ofsome major profit taking which will effect the I fund. Your opinion. Thanks



Use one month time frame for closer look

Hi Vectorman! I noticed the volume also. I guess you're asking whether I think its a "blowoff" (no wisecracks, Rolo) or high volume at a major top.A good examplemight beSIRI which hit 9.5 in Dec with huge volume the next day and then declined steadily. My answer: yes, it could be...but...High volume days for EFA haven't consistentlyshownmajor reversals in the past, if you've noticed. If I were a day trader, I would probably be more cautious of the I fund as a result of this, but I'm nota day trader.

 

[Guest]

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If the funds are down on a high volume day, you can bet it will continue and vice versa. Watch for volumes to increase next week one way or the other. Probably down though with the price index being up.

Just an opinion, not fact. Gotta say one thing though, that last day of Feb. on the seasonality charts is hard to ignore..............

 

[TEUFEL HUNDEN]

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Thanks torture, Where do you get your seasonality data? I know sentimentrader has it but you need to create an account. Can you post a graph? Thanks

 

[Dogdaddy]

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TEUFEL HUNDEN wrote:

Thanks torture, Where do you get your seasonality data? I know sentimentrader has it but you need to create an account. Can you post a graph? Thanks

TF:

Here's what you need.....

 

[tsptalk]

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TEUFEL HUNDEN wrote:

If there is too much volume does that mean it could possibly be overbought?

Generally speaking, high volume on the way up is a good sign for future gains while a lower volume rally can mean there in no conviction in the gain.

The same is true when something is on the way down, high volume means the selling was for real. A low volume drop may set up a buying opportunity.

 

[TEUFEL HUNDEN]

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Thanks Dogdaddy for the chart. Where did you get it? Can it show to the 28th of feb?

Thanks for the insight Tom. Good market comments this morning. I have been out of the C & S for about 3 weeks in the I 70% and G 30%. I think I'll stay that way until I see a buying op. If the smart money is bearish and the dumb money is bearish it can be a S.W.A.G. from there huh! I shall watch for future posts from you this situation as it changes.

 

[Brak]

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I'd be careful about reading too much into that 20th day of trading in February.

That20th trading day has only 10 years worth of data behind it. The other 19 days have 54 years worth of data. Why? Leap years.

February will only have 19 trading days except for leap years. Then you have a 20th day (except leap years when Feb 1 is on Saturday or Sunday).

My point is that while the first 19 trading days have a lot of data behind them, the 20th does not. Not enough for me to draw a clear conclusion about whether it really is a statistically strong day or not.

 

[Dogdaddy]

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TEUFEL HUNDEN wrote:

Thanks Dogdaddy for the chart. Where did you get it? Can it show to the 28th of feb?

Someone (Tom, I think) had posted the S&P Feb Seasonality Chart on this site earlier...I just dug it out. The days shown on the chart are trading days. Hence, the 20th trading day is Feb 28th.

 

[Brak]

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Actually, there is no 20th trading day this month.

Feb 28th is the 19th trading day.

 

[TEUFEL HUNDEN]

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SO I SEE said the blind man!

domo arigato


With the holiday and all there are only 19 trading days in this month.

Leap years sure are looking good for the 29th of Feb huh?

Does that hold true for the I fund? I don't think the world had presidents day, so can therebe 20 trading days in the I fund?

 

[Brak]

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Global markets were open yesterday but TSP wasn't.

I'm pretty sure that the Seasonality Chart is for U.S. markets.

 

[TEUFEL HUNDEN]

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Thanks G-Man for the info