^VIX

[Bullitt]

^^ Turned out that VIX at 28 was an excellent buying opportunity in 2015. ^^

Only at 24 though today. Going lower before it goes higher. End of year tax selling will keep pressure as people sell their losses in stocks like AAPL, NFLX and AMZN that they bought early in 2018. Dumb money buying high and selling low.

 

[tsptalk]

 

[Bullitt]

Generally, 20-40 mark areas that are better for buying than selling.

High of 23 today.

Except for 2018's swoon, low 20's have been a good area to scale in.

 

[James48843]

Just a note- the $VIX is sitting at 48 right now- Almost exactly what it was last week.

 

[Bullitt]

75 today after intervention.

CB's losing control.

 

[Bullitt]

Surpassed 2008 highs. According to the media it's only going higher because that's what they said about stock markets one month ago.

 

[Bullitt]

Closing top was March 16th. The easy money has already been made on the downside.

Today is the first time closing below 60 in two weeks. 10 straight trading days above 60. Previous record was eight straight in 2008.

Near 60 is good. We don't want everyone getting too bullish too quickly.

 

[tsptalk]

We don't want everyone getting too bullish too quickly.

Who's "we?"

 

[Bullitt]

:smile:

I'd like to see more bets on this 'retest' that every chart follower is calling for. The more leveraged the downside everyone gets, the better. 2x, 3x bear funds, keep loading 'em up.

I'm of the opinion the easy money has already been made on the downside. Everyone is saying, "are you nuts, it's obviously going lower." Here's the thing - whether these people are sold out to cash or selling short, they have a vested interest in saying the market will go lower. In fact, they are praying for it to lower (re: 2x, 3x bear funds). The unfortunate truth is the ones who say they will buy when it 'gets lower' will sit there waiting for it to go even lower because the 'news' will be so negative.

It's good times, it's easy to say, "buy when there is blood on the street" and "be greedy when others are fearful". Hindsight when looking at charts it's easy extremely easy to say the 1987 crash, March 2009, or even December 2018 were great buying opportunities. At the time, the news was not suggestive of good times ahead.

"Yeah but this virus is a black swan and different." No it's not. Markets still move on greed and fear. See how the VIX does if a retest occurs. I'm guessing it doesn't come close to the previous high.

One of these weekends there will be good news announced and holding bear funds won't be fun on Monday morning. Again, all it's going to take is a spark to unwind the bear funds and get those in cash to chase higher prices.

 

[tsptalk]

I do like to buy deep declines, and I actually got caught buying too early back in Mar

ch, but if someone was waiting for a green light, I think that 2600+ area may be a good place to get interested - for now, assuming the lows hold if they are tested.

 

[Bullitt]

Looking back, was March really a bad time to get in? The system might have been right.

VIX collapsing as people are not as interested as they were in downside protection. Of course, that could be construed as bearish, but taken as a whole, VIX at 27 is still a bit elevated.

 

[Bullitt]

Gap filled from most recent swoon.

Watch out below (25). Listless summer trading is in full effect.

 

[Bullitt]

60 minute VIX showing a slightly higher low and looking to push past the downtrend. Traders are positioning for some volatility here in the next two weeks.

 

[Bullitt]

VIX at 33 and once the election is over, volatility should calm down.

All those trades and hedges made in favor of certain outcomes will be immediately unwound after the election result.

 

[Bullitt]

More trades being unwound today as the VIX goes from 28 to 22 in two days.

Vaccine, election, Georgia.. All major known risks seem to have passed. Blue wave, infrastructure bill, higher yields for the next couple years.

 

[Bullitt]

Volatility is back to near November levels. Question now is, how strong of an equity bounce do we get from here.

 

[Bullitt]

Well, we got the bounce. Was that the dip?

 

[Bullitt]

Was that the dip?

Maybe it was. VIX back to the 22 area after a short stint in the high 30's.

Resistance seems to be around the mid-24's. Watch out for a rise over 26, that's usually meant run-ups to the 30's in the past year.

 

[Bullitt]

Melting into the mid-21's at the close and getting very close to that low-21 number we saw in December. Some say 20 is the all clear bullish signal, though it seems we're there already.

 

[Bullitt]

Settled at 19.97.

Historical cases of elevated but falling volatility led to more gains for stocks over the next 6-12 months:

Dec 2009: S&P +12.6% over next year
May 2003: S&P +16.4% over next year
July 1999: bubble lasted another 9 months

https://twitter.com/bullmarketsco/status/1360345842138415106