VIX - The Market Seismograph

[Bullitt]

I have thought about it, but after my experience in UNG where I was actually right but the security failed to properly track nat gas, I'm done with any ETF that buys futures. That's the problem with VXX; the fund manager has to keep selling low and buying high, in turn driving down the price. The crooks tell us retailers it's a hedge, but they short the heck out of it.

However, there is a caveat.... VXX is very heavily shorted. We all know how big the VIX can move on any given down day and that could potentially turn into a big one or two day gain if trading VXX.

If I were to do it, I'd have a stop and I'd be ready to sell it at market on the open on any big up day. Last time we corrected, VXX got up to the 50 dma and it very easily could do that again which would be 5 points from here. I believe we're in bear mode, so the VIX could potentially rise at least 10 points from here.

Wow, is that VIX/VXX screaming 'BUY ME' right now or what?

 

[tsptalk]

Wow, is that VIX/VXX screaming 'BUY ME' right now or what?

I know! I am trying to think of the best way to aggressively play a market short in my IRA. We can't short in IRA's and the 3X bear ETFs are too big of a rip off. I thought buying the VIX ETFs might be a good idea.

Thanks for the info. I had the same experience with the UNG. It makes you feel like a fool when they screw with you like that.

 

[Bullitt]

VXZ might have better tracking than VXX.

 

[Birchtree]

The VIX had an intraday low of 17.23 on Friday - we'll bust that level on Monday. There are many call options purchased on the VIX expecting it to spike higher again - money that will expire worthless. I'm waiting to make a move to shift some of my S fund to G.

 

[dannyboy]

The VIX had an intraday low of 17.23 on Friday - we'll bust that level on Monday. There are many call options purchased on the VIX expecting it to spike higher again - money that will expire worthless. I'm waiting to make a move to shift some of my S fund to G.

I would be very interested in knowing ,
what do the knowledgeable TSPtalkers out there think?
I'm interested in hering as much as possible!
Thanks,

 

[Birchtree]

Betula papyrifera will tell you not to be comfortable - stay nervous but be invested. You can bet as the VIX continues to drop and the crowd leans heavily in one direction all hell will break again and a reversal increases substantially. But until that time - enjoy the market serenity.

 

[Birchtree]

The likelihood is that the VIX has initiated a bottoming process that could still take some time to develop. What this means is that it's not yet time to sell the farm but it could be in the not too distant future. Remain vigilant but enjoy the gains.

 

[tsptalk]

The VXX has about the same success as a 3X ETF. That is, the underlying index can go in your direction, but the ETF does not pay. The VIX was up almost 5% today, yet the VXX ETF was up just 1.1%.

For the day:

Last 6-months:

Is that great, or what?

 

[Bullitt]

Good thing you did your research before the crooks got your money. By the way- VIX reversal?

 

[Bullitt]

VIX sitting at 21.6 and it's down 5% from yesterday but still not back inside the Bollinger Band. Any reason to buy stocks is a good reason.

 

[tsptalk]

The VIX spiked to 40 today!

 

[fedgolfer]

VIX weekly coming out of the oversold embedded area in slow stochs and divergent momentum shift in PPO, looks like we could see a VIX breakout... if we get a euphoric pop over the next couple of days, it may be a good sell if the big boys play to spike the vix. Thoughts?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=W&yr=1&mn=9&dy=0&id=p66511933061

 

[tsptalk]

In this market environment, I don't think the VIX will hit the top of it's BB's any time soon without a major news event.

 

[fedgolfer]

agree w/ you on the weekly... kinda ironic it just hit the top BB on the daily, when we have a good shot at closing at new QQQQ high:

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=D&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p72534265360

pretty conflicting info,these shorter time frame indicators are just being taken out to the woodshed. They seem almost trivial... until wham!

 

[Birchtree]

The VIX is most likely heading for the 15 level by the end of the month - then it'll be time to look back over your shoulder and stay on guard - strictly speaking from a contrarian perspective. It was at 17 last April when that correction developed.

 

[fedgolfer]

VIXen went back to embedded on the weekly... great sign

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$VIX&p=W&yr=0&mn=9&dy=0&id=p07425483704

 

[KevinD]

VIX at 34-Month Low - Time to Sell and Go Away Before May?

Simon Maierhofer, On Monday April 25, 2011, 12:29 pm
This should be interesting. The VIX is at a 34-month low and stocks have been rising on anemically low volume, but the S&P is within points of breaking above the technically important neckline of an inverse head and shoulders bottom formation.

Of more immediate importance is the S&P's resistance at 1,339, which has rebuffed the S&P 500 on seven different trading days. And as if there wasn't enough intrigue to the current constellation, the S&P has an open chart gap right below 1,343.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/VIX-at-34Month-Low-Time-to-etfguide-129756507.html?x=0&.v=1

 

[tsptalk]

It's interesting that the VIX is flat this morning (Dow down 104 at the moment)

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

It's interesting that the VIX is flat this morning (Dow down 104 at the moment)

http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm