VirginiaBob's Account Talk

[VirginiaBob]

I am thinking of a new strategy. I used to use the G-Fund penny strategy, but it has not been as easy to predict anymore, and the benefits are going down as the share price increases. I am honestly just thinking of a weighted average of the top 10 performers rounded to the nearest percent. I backtested it for 2005 so far this year, and I'd be at 16%, about 3.2% higher than I am now. The top performer would get a weight of ten, the 2nd top performer would get a weight of 9, etc. I'll post my results here starting January. Granted, I will miss a move if they change thier allocation a few minutes before noon. Not sure if I'll make my move every week, day, or 2 weeks.

So here would be my allocation today before the deadline, pending any changes by the top 10.

38G, 15F, 7C, 9S 31I

 

[Birchtree]

Are you paying any attention to your DCA? A good dollar cost averaging strategy will help you the most of the long haul - for get the G unless you use it for insurance. Consider that investors have poured money into non-U.S. funds at a furious pace. In the first nine months of this year, international and global funds hauled in $134 billion while U.S. stock funds collected $20 billion. For the better part of the past four years, the dollar has been in a decline. In 2005 it bounced back somewhat, but those gains have been largely reversed. Late last week, the dollar fell swiftly against the euro, and the currency has fallen roughly 11% since the start of the year. Keep a focus of at least 8 months out to stay out of trouble. I bought my AEPGX back in July'02 at the first bottom and am now thinking of peeling off positions after the second quarter 0f '07. I'm watching China and the potential ripple effects of a possible slow down in their economy. The weak dollar will have Europe crying. And when the hedge funds run for the door some one has to turn out the lights - it won't be me.

 

[VirginiaBob]

I use a DCA strategy for my non-TSP investments such as my Roth, Vanguard, and Scott Trade Accounts.

 

[Birchtree]

Your narcissism is showing. There is no guarantee that Griffin will come anywhere close to 23% in 2007. And besides this year is not completed yet - dumbrosky. Look at what Aslan has done with only 1 IFT - over 19%. No one knows what the future will bring so try not to be so impetuous. Patience tends to pay dividends when investing.

 

[VirginiaBob]

Please don't bring discussions about another user's account into my thread. Thank you.

 

[Birchtree]

I will certainly respect your politeness. Hope you manage a good year in 2007.

 

[VirginiaBob]

Woohoo. Moved up the the 8th decile. I've moved up 7 spots last week and another 7 spots this week. I'm actually .13% ahead of what the tracker says since I missed posting a move, but yes, I know, that's not much.

 

[VirginiaBob]

moving some on the table before the monday noon deadline. I'd move it all on the table, but I'm not going to be able to make any changes (by web or phone) until the afternoon, since I'll be knee deep in a morning meeting.

So I'll move half in. If the market goes up while I'm half in, I'll feel ok, if the market goes down while I'm half in, it will only be half as bad.

 

[VirginiaBob]

Going 100% G, and will probably stick there through the holiday weekend, unless I see a buy the dip opportunity.

 

[VirginiaBob]

Everyone is saying this is just like the May correction. I'm hedging my bets on the fact that since everyone is talking about it, that it won't happen. All in by COB.

 

[VirginiaBob]

It's pretty cool that I just realized that in one day, my yearly returns will likely pass up the L2010, L2020, L2030, L2040, 20% each fund, and the C fund.

 

[VirginiaBob]

Missing the one-day-plunge has me ahead of the my benchmark (split between the 3 stock funds). I'm holding steady in CSI now because even if I take a loss, I'm still about 1% ahead of my benchmark. If you told me at the beginning of the year that I'd be 1% higher than my benchmark, I'd be happy. If the indices hit a new high, I'll re-evaluate. But until them, I'm all in.

 

[VirginiaBob]

Moving 50% to safety in the G. Pretty happy with my moves this week. Predicting the market is down tomorrow, but not enough to pull out all 100%. Getting ready for phase 3.

 

[VirginiaBob]

Probably going to hold 50% cash, 50% stocks until I either see a large dip, or a rise within a percent or 2 of previous market highs. In either scenario, I'll be beating buy and holders.

 

[Birchtree]

I can see where 50% of a penny would mean something to you.

 

[VirginiaBob]

I missed the penny anyways, but oh well, I would have went 50% G either way. So far, it looks like being in 50% G may pay off slightly today, but still 2 hours to go.

 

[VirginiaBob]

Oh, what the heck, I'm pulling back to 40% stocks, 60% cash.

 

[VirginiaBob]

Enough pussyfooting around, I'm all in 100% stocks for Monday.

 

[VirginiaBob]

Yea, I'm not doing all that bad with my strategy, but I'm just starting to think I'm betting against myself some of the time. Being in 50% stocks, 50% out is like betting on both sides, and always ends up being a win-lose situation. I'm going to start making more dramatic moves and either win or lose on a day-to-day basis.

 

[VirginiaBob]

Buy and hold from here on out. I'm doing ok with this timing stuff. Either slightly ahead or slightly behind the market each year, but it's simply not worth the effort anymore. I am a now convert to BAH.
Thanks Birchtree.