Valkyrie's Account Talk

[tsptalk]

With the S&P 500 down 21% year-to-date, the situation for stocks is pretty grim — but according to legendary investor Jim Rogers, it’s just the start.

Unfortunately Jim Rogers has been one of those broken clock investors (eventually right) in that he has been bearish for 20+ years. Eventually these guys are right, but they get notoriety by viewing clips of the stating their bearishness before the drop, but he made similar calls in Sept 2017 and April 2020.

Jim Rogers says ETF holders will get mauled by ‘the worst’ bear market in a ‘lifetime’
Published: Sept. 25, 2017 at 4:49 a.m. ET

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/j...uled-by-the-worst-bear-market-ever-2017-09-21


Jim Rogers expects ‘worst bear market in my lifetime’ in coming years
BloombergLast Updated: Apr 02, 2020, 12:08 AM IST

https://economictimes.indiatimes.co...time-in-coming-years/articleshow/74924243.cms

 

[Epic]

I know nothing about Jim Rogers or even who he is, but I was watching Kudlow yesterday with Charles Payne. Charles (to me) seems to be very knowledgeable and level headed, and has a good grasp on Market history and situations. I trust what he says.
He said at the 6:15 minute mark of the vid below: "I think stocks are somewhat vulnerable obviously to the downside, but I'm telling you, we're gonna get a CPI Report that's gonna be So Shocking to the Downside....... " He then continues with his thoughts.
He must feel that there's some serious Pain coming our way.
He's a great guest and this is a good segment. Just over 7 minutes long. Good stuff. :fing02:

 

[tsptalk]

Charles Payne. "I think stocks are somewhat vulnerable obviously to the downside, but I'm telling you, we're gonna get a CPI Report that's gonna be So Shocking to the Downside....... " He then continues with his thoughts.

Hmm, I can't tell what he meant by the CPI report being on the "downside." Higher than expected, or lower than expected, because then he talks about housing stalling which may mean prices falling.

It sounds like he may be more worried about the economy slowing than inflation, but I think he could have been more clear. keep'em guessing, I guess.

 

[Epic]

Hmm, I can't tell what he meant by the CPI report being on the "downside." Higher than expected, or lower than expected, because then he talks about housing stalling which may mean prices falling.

It sounds like he may be more worried about the economy slowing than inflation, but I think he could have been more clear. keep'em guessing, I guess.

I don't know.... All I can say is that my simple-minded interpretation of that statement he made was that he was expecting a future CPI Report to shock the Market into falling like a ton of bricks to the downside. At least that's what I got out of it.
I could be totally wrong, but that's what it sounded like to me . . . . . . :dunno:

 

[Valkyrie]

lets see if the new OPM site is just as bad as the blackrock controlled TSP site.

On May 26, 2022, OPM went live with Login.gov as the official login and
authentication method for Services Online (https://www.servicesonline.opm.gov).
Benefits of this new service include:

* Improved security of your online account using multi-factor
authentication,

* No need to remember your old Services Online CSA/CSF claim number
or password once your account is registered and remains active,

* Reset your password online without having to call the Retirement
Information Office

If you haven't already registered your Services
Online account with Login.gov please take the opportunity to do so.
Detailed instructions may be found in the following document Linking
your Services Online Account with Login.gov (opm.gov) at
https://www.opm.gov/support/retirement/faq/sol-login-linking-guide.pdf.
RS recommends that you print or have readily available these
step-by-step instructions to follow when first registering your account.

If you have additional questions regarding this change, please visit our
Services Online/Login.gov Frequently Asked Questions at
https://www.opm.gov/support/retirement/faq/services-online-and-logingov/.

 

[PessOptimist]

Worked fairly easily. I all ready had a login.gov account for some other .gov account but IIRC creating that account was not easy.

PO

 

[Valkyrie]

The Fed has never hiked rates during a recession, expect stock markets to fall another 50%

https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-08-...ts-to-fall-another-50-Todd-Bubba-Horwitz.html

 

[Valkyrie]

Grantham, who has repeatedly warned investors of a bubble in markets, said in a paper Wednesday that “superbubbles are events unlike any others” and share some common features.
“One of those features is the bear-market rally after the initial derating stage of the decline but before the economy has clearly begun to deteriorate, as it always has when superbubbles burst,” said Grantham. “This, in all three previous cases, recovered over half the market’s initial losses, luring unwary investors back just in time for the market to turn down again, only more viciously, and the economy to weaken. This summer’s rally has so far perfectly fit the pattern.”

Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently ended that rally with his Aug. 26 speech at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic symposium, wiping out this month’s gains

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/p...perbubble-may-burst-11661988022?mod=home-page

 

[Valkyrie]

interesting perspective.

Joel says, "This is still an incredibly interesting market. It's a pullback in a bull market. We don't see the signals that a big bear market is coming."
Joel also believes that the rampant inflation we've seen is unrelated to the value of the U.S. dollar, stressing that it's simply due to supply-and-demand imbalances. He says, "This is not a currency devaluation issue. It's inflation driven by supply chains not being enough to fulfill the demand."
He concludes by dismissing the notion that the U.S. dollar is in danger of losing its status as the world's reserve currency, claiming that it's simply too powerful to do so.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27Oc-NvriwU

U.S. Stocks Sink, But It’s Still No Bear Market... It’s China That’s Headed For Catastrophe

 

[Valkyrie]

strong dollar not good at all, except it is keeping oil prices down right now. if it keeps up next yr will be real bad.

https://currencylive.com/news/what-does-a-strong-dollar-mean/

 

[Whipsaw]

Time to consider gold, it's at a ~52 week low.

 

[Valkyrie]

so what are some great oil ETF's to buy to profit from the major increase in oil and gasoline prices?
(for a refresher https://theblacksphere.net/2021/10/bidens-10-per-gallon-gas-coming-soon/ )

https://ourgoldguy.com/2022/10/20/e...-new-china-dominated-brics-economic-alliance/

Earlier this week, following a two-day summit with Saudi Arabia, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa confirmed that the oil-rich kingdom is likely to join the growing BRICS coalition consisting of core members Brazil, India, China, and South Africa.
“The Crown Prince (prime minister Mohammad bin Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud) did express Saudi Arabia’s desire to be part of BRICS and they are not the only country,” said Ramaphosa, according to a Times Live report.
The bloc first met in 2009 and has always generally been seen as an economic alternative to the Western-dominated global economic order. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the West has pulled back engagement with and resources from Moscow, which is being seen as hastening the growth of BRICS as more countries flee the self-destructive left-wing cultural chaos of Western countries.

 

[JTH]

so what are some great oil ETF's to buy to profit from the major increase in oil and gasoline prices?

If I wanted to concentrate on the big players, I like XLE, it only has 25 holdings, with a heavy weighting in Exxon & Chevron. With a .11% expense ratio and 2022 average 3.49% dividend.

If you want more diversification then VDE, with 111 holdings, .10% expense ratio and 2022 average 3.32% dividend.

I'm holding the latter, but mostly because I also hold Exxon & Chevron separately.

 

[Valkyrie]

https://www.kitco.com/news/2022-10-...hrinks-at-unprecedented-rate-Steve-Hanke.html

Third quarter real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose by 2.6%, according to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis on Thursday. This was higher than the consensus estimate of 2.4%, and follows two consecutive quarters of GDP contraction.
Steve Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University, believes that a recession is still likely. In fact, Hanke told David Lin, Anchor for Kitco News,

that he has recently updated his probability of an upcoming recession to 90%.

The shrinking money supply is mainly responsible for deteriorating economic conditions to come, Hanke said.
“Where we’re going is determined by where the money supply is going,” he said. “The Quantity Theory of Money is a way to determine national income determination. We had the money supply being goosed in early 2020, when COVID hit, we had the money supply growing, on average, about three times faster than it should have been growing to hit a 2% inflation target. As a result, we had a lot of inflation.”

 

[Valkyrie]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u...adding-a-fixed-rate-11667322486?mod=home-page

Starting Nov. 2, when I-bonds will be available again after site maintenance at TreasuryDirect.gov, the inflation-adjusted annualized rate will be 6.48%, down from 9.62%. But there will also be a 0.4% fixed rate, a bump from zero, where it has been since 2020. The combined rate will be annualized at 6.89%, available through April.

thanks to lieden empty the petroleum reserves to lower the rate.

 

[Valkyrie]

also hidden inflation. A vitamin supplement I've bought for last few yrs, was always 400mgs/capsule, now it is 350mgs/capsule and with a price increase.

[h=1]Bidenflation Strikes Again! S&P 500 Worst Performance In REAL Terms Since 1872 (Worst Since President Ulysses Grant!)[/h]https://www.investmentwatchblog.com/bidenflation-strikes-again-sp-500-worst-performance-in-real-terms-since-1872-worst-since-president-ulysses-grant/

 

[rangerray]

A-1 Sauce is over $100 per gallon.

 

[WorkFE]

I'm a mayo kind of guy but the other day my wife asks me to stop and get some miracle whip. Admittedly I am not the shopper in the family but I was a bit shocked at the $7.99 price tag for 30 OZ. jar.

 

[Valkyrie]

https://ourgoldguy.com/2022/12/06/could-65-trillion-dollars-in-hidden-derivatives-cause-the-entire-global-financial-system-to-crash/

could-65-trillion-dollars-in-hidden-derivatives-cause-the-entire-global-financial-system-to-crash

There’s a hidden risk to the global financial system embedded in the $65 trillion of dollar debt being held by non-US institutions via currency derivatives, according to the Bank for International Settlements.
In a paper with the title “huge, missing and growing,” the BIS said a lack of information is making it harder for policy makers to anticipate the next financial crisis. In particular, they raised concern with the fact that the debt is going unrecorded on balance sheets because of accounting conventions on how to track derivative positions.
​

Last year, the total value of all goods and services produced in the entire world was just 96 trillion dollars.
So we are talking about an amount of money that is almost unimaginable.

 

[Valkyrie]

so contacted TSP to find out why I can only logged in to the system, but cannot to any interfund transfers etc. Their terrible website does not support firefox. they want u to use google chrome, microsoft windows etc all trackign everything u do web systems.

well anyway, I requested transfer/closeout forms to be sent to me. will be transferring all funds and closing out the account before its too late into annuities, that are safe secure and make some consistent money.