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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!userque & NUGT/DUST
- Thread starter userque
- Start date
userque
Well-known member
Thanks Rick...me too.
tctang75
Member
Most often, I have to gamble with unsettled chips, so here's hoping the $ falls thru Thurs! OTOH, I'm long equities, so today was an unusually lucky day! I'm due!
userque
Well-known member
Code:03-30-16 ENTER DUST AT 03.14 03-28-16 ENTER NUGT AT 54.25---03-30-16 EXIT NUGT AT 60.38 03-21-16 ENTER DUST AT 03.19---03-28-16 EXIT DUST AT 03.60 03-18-16 ENTER NUGT AT 67.65---03-21-16 EXIT NUGT AT 65.20 optimized, fixed 1 bug 03-15-16 ENTER DUST AT 03.83---03-18-16 EXIT DUST AT 03.08 minor system update, fixed 2 bugs 03-14-16 ENTER NUGT AT 54.37---03-15-16 EXIT NUGT AT 56.80 03-11-16 ENTER DUST AT 03.61---03-14-16 EXIT DUST AT 04.04 major system update 02-29-16 ENTER NUGT AT 58.25---03-11-16 EXIT NUGT AT 61.59 02-24-16 ENTER DUST AT 04.51---02-29-16 EXIT DUST AT 04.22 02-04-16 ENTER NUGT AT 36.78---02-24-16 EXIT NUGT AT 55.95 major system update 02-02-16 ENTER DUST AT 13.05---02-04-16 EXIT DUST AT 08.77 01-26-16 ENTER TNA AT 44.93---01-27-16 EXIT TNA AT 44.85 01-25-16 ENTER TZA AT 61.15---01-26-16 EXIT TZA AT 60.51 01-20-16 ENTER TNA AT 42.98---01-25-16 EXIT TNA AT 44.79
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DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum
userque
Well-known member
System is holding DUST overnight
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum
RealMoneyIssues
Well-known member
userque & NUGT/DUST
Thanks for the updates
Sent from my (Daughter forcing me to use an) iPhone using Tapatalk...Last edited:
userque
Well-known member
System is holding DUST over the weekend
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum
userque
Well-known member
System is holding DUST overnight
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum
userque
Well-known member
System is holding DUST overnight
Started MAJOR upgrade to the system this past weekend. Just finished the final part--hill climbing (optimizing)! (Had I finished before yesterday's close, I'd been in nugt today...can't win'em all
)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.
userque
Well-known member
System is holding DUST overnight
Started MAJOR upgrade to the system this past weekend. Just finished the final part--hill climbing (optimizing)! (Had I finished before yesterday's close, I'd been in nugt today...can't win'em all )
Update:
Backtested upgraded version through the choppy month of March, up to a few days ago. It performed better than before, turning $1000 into over $1500.
I'll eventually test more months. Flat months, trending months, etc. I'm sure it's fine after seeing the last test, but I like testing to confirm.
First, I have to finish optimizing the TSP model. It takes much much longer to do than the GDX model.Last edited:
userque
Well-known member
Exited DUST early to lock in small profit. Then, was waiting for a pull back to enter NUGT. It never came. Pulled the trigger at the first sign of it breaking to the upside.
Code:04-06-16 ENTER NUGT AT 59.15 03-30-16 ENTER DUST AT 03.14---04-06-16 EXIT DUST AT 03.16 MAJOR upgrade 03-28-16 ENTER NUGT AT 54.25---03-30-16 EXIT NUGT AT 60.38 03-21-16 ENTER DUST AT 03.19---03-28-16 EXIT DUST AT 03.60 03-18-16 ENTER NUGT AT 67.65---03-21-16 EXIT NUGT AT 65.20 optimized, fixed 1 bug 03-15-16 ENTER DUST AT 03.83---03-18-16 EXIT DUST AT 03.08 minor system update, fixed 2 bugs 03-14-16 ENTER NUGT AT 54.37---03-15-16 EXIT NUGT AT 56.80 03-11-16 ENTER DUST AT 03.61---03-14-16 EXIT DUST AT 04.04 major system update 02-29-16 ENTER NUGT AT 58.25---03-11-16 EXIT NUGT AT 61.59 02-24-16 ENTER DUST AT 04.51---02-29-16 EXIT DUST AT 04.22 02-04-16 ENTER NUGT AT 36.78---02-24-16 EXIT NUGT AT 55.95 major system update 02-02-16 ENTER DUST AT 13.05---02-04-16 EXIT DUST AT 08.77 01-26-16 ENTER TNA AT 44.93---01-27-16 EXIT TNA AT 44.85 01-25-16 ENTER TZA AT 61.15---01-26-16 EXIT TZA AT 60.51 01-20-16 ENTER TNA AT 42.98---01-25-16 EXIT TNA AT 44.79
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.Last edited:
userque
Well-known member
I will start posting the systems signals with greater clarity, as some may find it useful.
The system actually generates one of 3 outputs: NUGT, DUST, HOLD.
For example, if the system is currently in NUGT, and it generates another NUGT signal, I previously would just post that the system is HOLDING NUGT. Rather than specifying that the system actually gave a NUGT signal, and not a HOLD signal. What's the difference? Imo:
NUGT/DUST signals represent the tops and bottoms of forecasted ranges, HOLD represents somewhere in between. NUGT/DUST signals can therefore be considered to carry more 'weight' than the HOLD signal; and make better entry points.
*************
Also, I'll be posting the back-test data for the latest system version over the weekend. I hope to have data going back through this January by then.
EDIT: Today, a NUGT signal was issued again.
__________________________________________________ _______________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.Last edited:
userque
Well-known member
Well, system did worse without the error, so I'll stay with the initial call--staying in NUGT at least until circa the close.
I'll try to "figure out what's going on" this weekend.
THE SAFE MOVE WOULD BE TO GO TO CASH.
userque
Well-known member
All is well with the universe again.
While checking out the code, I discovered (and activated) an additional improvement that I hadn't previously utilized. Now, it takes even longer to generate signals, but they should be more accurate than before. But, I won't be able to confirm this until after the market closes today.
Haven't changed my position yet--still holding NUGT.
____________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.
userque
Well-known member
Troubleshooting Update.
Back-test data still didn't look right. Dug deeper. Found a formula issue on the sheet. Corrected. Did a quick run for today's signal again. System issued a DUST call. Now running back-test to confirm repair. However, if I could go to DUST post-market, I would.
____________________________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.
userque
Well-known member
Troubleshooting Update:
Short back-test (Through 4-1-16) was near perfect--even using unoptimized parameters. The back-test no longer takes super long after the bug fixes. I'll now have to optimize the parameters again.
Two total bugs found and killed:
1. The algo can forecast ahead varying time frames, from 1 day onward (for example, the TSP). In one part of the code, this value was off by one. This bug was introduce with the latest 'major upgrade.'
2. Old Data. The algo can use time/date as an input. The data wasn't being updated. This bug has been present for a while. The algo only uses inputs that can 'hunt.' So, if the old data somehow helped it, it used it. If it didn't help, it ignored it. I still find it amazing that it did better (before the bug fixes) with the old data than without. (Early results seem to suggest that the fixed version outperforms that previous version.) Data is now, and will continue to be fresh.
The above also applies/applied to the TSP Model.
I still expect to post some back-testing data by Monday.Similar threads
