userque & NUGT/DUST

[RealMoneyIssues]

Any change?

FOR 10-30-15 AT CLOSE:
ENTER NUGT

FOLLOWING TRADING DAY AT OPEN:
HOLD NUGT

* System updated. Optimization 90% complete.


_______________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

 

[userque]

Any change?

Nope. The new configuration also forecasts Monday as being an up day in GDX. Just to be clear, the close Monday is forecast to be higher than the close on Friday. It doesn't play the openings anymore.

I suspect Monday's are less accurate due to the weekend, however. We'll see.



_______________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

 

[userque]

Update

The GDX model that only needs the OPENing price (and only trades the CLOSE) won. Strange, but I like it.

I built-up the new database until the best parameter settings stabilized. It only needed to crunch about 30 trading days of data. I wanted to go longer (40 days of data), but I also wanted to update the TSP Equities Model.

Long story short; the TSP model is still growing/hill-climbing. I'll stop it before the noon cut-off and continue it later if it still needs more crunching. After I stop it, I'll restart the GDX optimization for a little while longer, then post the forecast for the CLOSE today. I expect the forecast will be ready well before 2pm.

 

[Steiner]

Q,

So your GDX system no longer needs the high/low for the day? That is surprising. Any idea what the percentage difference was between the various models?

 

[userque]

Q,

So your GDX system no longer needs the high/low for the day? That is surprising. Any idea what the percentage difference was between the various models?

The initial run was for 10 days. The last run was for 30. I don't remember the numbers for 30, but for 10:

The original OPEN and CLOSE model's best settings achieved 8 (GDX) points (%);
The HIGH/LOW/CLOSE model did 13; and,
The OPEN only model did 18.

The 30 day run was more of the same.

The system uses more history than one day. It applies more weight to recent history.
The HIGH's and LOW's as provided by Google/Yahoo etc. do not differentiate as to which occurs first. (the system gives them equal weight/day) IOW, The Open is always first, the Close is always last, but no order is provided for the H/L. I also suspect there is more noise/slop/uncertainty associated with the H/L.

(BTW, my system gave the H/L more weight than the Close because the H/L were more stable than the Close, near closing.)

So a day that has the same H and L prices may actually have totally different charts, if the H was reached first with one; and the L was reached first with the other.

I suspect this may explain the "strange" results.

 

[userque]

FOR 11-02-15 AT CLOSE:
ENTER DUST

* System only trades at the Close now.




_______________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

 

[userque]

The system chose DUST. It was a split decision 1:1. The average is -0.67%. Some would call this a forecast for the percentage change of GDX tomorrow. Some may consider this as a sort of confidence indicator.

 

[userque]

I see one or two backup volatile ETF's would be good to have modeled for times when GDX flattens out.

 

[Steiner]

Q,

I'm trying to understand this. When I read that it was a split decision 1:1, I assumed that meant tomorrow could go either way. Then when I read the average is -.67%, I assumed that meant the projection is that GDX would go down tomorrow by -.67% which would certainly imply the move to DUST.

Am I understanding this correctly???

The system chose DUST. It was a split decision 1:1. The average is -0.67%. Some would call this a forecast for the percentage change of GDX tomorrow. Some may consider this as a sort of confidence indicator.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Now that the opening price is established, when can the closing trade be known?

Thanks!

FOR 11-02-15 AT CLOSE:
ENTER DUST

* System only trades at the Close now.




_______________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

 

[userque]

Now that the opening price is established, when can the closing trade be known?

Thanks!

If I don't optimize, immediately, if I'm not busy doing something, of course. But I would prefer to optimize daily, so currently about 1 hr after opening with optimization if I'm available to do it immediately after the open. (I'll have to note how long it takes exactly).

Right now, I'm still working to baseline the TSP Equity model, so it could be early afternoon.

I can give you a preliminary call w/o optimization if you like? Would only take several minutes.

 

[userque]

The system chose DUST. It was a split decision 1:1. The average is -0.67%. Some would call this a forecast for the percentage change of GDX tomorrow. Some may consider this as a sort of confidence indicator.

I've migrated to using dynamic parameters since posting this. The results were the same (dust) but the decision count and the average are probably different...and possibly more accurate. I don't have the numbers in front of me right now, however.

 

[userque]

FOR 11-03-15 AT CLOSE:
ENTER NUGT

CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 50%

GDX FORECAST TO CLOSE UP CIRCA 0.54% FOLLOWING TRADING DAY




_______________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

 

[userque]

...ALSO:

GDX FORECAST TO CLOSE DOWN CIRCA -2.28% TODAY
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 80%





_______________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Interesting as it would have to drop about 2.5% in the next 45 minutes...

...ALSO:

GDX FORECAST TO CLOSE DOWN CIRCA -2.28% TODAY
CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 80%




_______________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

 

[Steiner]

Q,

Is this forecast for "GDX to be down -2.28%" intended to be at the close today or simply anytime during the day?

 

[userque]

Q,

Is this forecast for "GDX to be down -2.28%" intended to be at the close today or simply anytime during the day?

Good question. It should have read "close down." It's intended to be at the close today. Thanks.

 

[userque]

Interesting as it would have to drop about 2.5% in the next 45 minutes...

Right. I trade the forecasted direction. The price forecast and confidence levels are a byproduct the system produces. I thought it would be helpful and interesting for some folks, to reveal a little about how the system is "thinking."

They can be ignored by other folks.

I may stop posting them if they are not desired; if folks prefer less information about a closed system, as that would mean a couple fewer steps for me.

Note also that I've never made a system that's 100% correct. Sooooo it'll be wrong sometimes. The squeamish may want to paper trade NUGT/DUST using their own devices... or at least: something different.







_______________________________________________________________
DISCLAIMER: Userque's trading signals are not affiliated with TSP Talk or Buy Low Sell High, Inc. The information is for educational purposes only! The information is not advice or recommendations. The information may be revised at anytime. Userque does not give investment advice. Do not act on this data. Do not buy, sell or trade any stocks, ETF's, indices, funds, or any other instruments/vehicles based on this information. Userque may trade differently than discussed or posted in this forum.

 

[Steiner]

I just found it interesting that at the low for the day ($14.71) around 9:50 this morning it was down 2.06% which is getting close to your -2.28% call.

 

[userque]

I just found it interesting that at the low for the day ($14.71) around 9:50 this morning it was down 2.06% which is getting close to your -2.28% call.

Yeah I'd like to believe it was on its way to -2.28%...but something unexpected, unpredictable happened in the world.