userque & NUGT/DUST

[konakathy]

Hi Mr. Q, I have been gone for a while and haven't been paying attention to the forum, so I'm playing catch up with your thread.

Your system indicated a buy for NUGT at the close yesterday and a buy at today's close. Are you just adding to yesterday's position? So, your system would be in both NUGT and DUST at tomorrow's open? :smile:

 

[userque]

Hi Mr. Q, I have been gone for a while and haven't been paying attention to the forum, so I'm playing catch up with your thread.

Your system indicated a buy for NUGT at the close yesterday and a buy at today's close. Are you just adding to yesterday's position? So, your system would be in both NUGT and DUST at tomorrow's open? :smile:

Hi kk, my father is Mr. Q. I'm Q (viewers of "House of Cards" should recognize that joke.)

Anyway, the system is never in both DUST and NUGT at the same time. :blink: When it "ENTERS NUGT," it is, (or should be) understood that that also means "EXIT DUST." And vice versa. (For the record, this was explained early on.)

Welcome Back!

 

[konakathy]

Hi kk, my father is Mr. Q. I'm Q (viewers of "House of Cards" should recognize that joke.)

Anyway, the system is never in both DUST and NUGT at the same time. :blink: When it "ENTERS NUGT," it is, (or should be) understood that that also means "EXIT DUST." And vice versa. (For the record, this was explained early on.)

Welcome Back!

Yes, I got the joke and I am a big "House of Cards" fan!

Thanks for the welcome. I've been perusing the back posts on this thread and I see that now. I'll pay better attention henceforward.

 

[userque]

Yes, I got the joke and I am a big "House of Cards" fan!

Thanks for the welcome. I've been perusing the back posts on this thread and I see that now. I'll pay better attention henceforward.

LOL :laugh:

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

FOR 10-21-15 AT CLOSE:
ENTER NUGT

FOR 10-22-15 AT OPEN:
HOLD NUGT

Any ideas for this afternoon?

I'd be done, but I only took a half position AH yesterday and PM didn't give a chance and I sure wasn't going to chase...

Just need a couple more % to hit my paper goal...

 

[userque]

Any ideas for this afternoon?

I'd be done, but I only took a half position AH yesterday and PM didn't give a chance and I sure wasn't going to chase...

Just need a couple more % to hit my paper goal...

Unfortunately, no early forecasts today. Found another area of the system that needed improving...it's re-optimizing right now. Won't finish until after closing, but by closing, it should have a good solution that I can post.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Unfortunately, no early forecasts today. Found another area of the system that needed improving...it's re-optimizing right now. Won't finish until after closing, but by closing, it should have a good solution that I can post.

:ugh1::trink26:

:AR15firing::wall:

 

[userque]

:ugh1::trink26:

:AR15firing::wall: :1244:

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Not knowing the plan until 5 mins before the end of the day means we suffer with the EOD sell offs... note, NUGT

 

[userque]

Not knowing the plan until 5 mins before the end of the day means we suffer with the EOD sell offs... note, NUGT

That's how the system works. It's not designed to trade intraday. Maybe I'll build one to do that one day.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

FORECAST NOTICE:
After communicating with the original requester, the T+3 postings are now discontinued due to the:

Lack of use by original requester
Requirement that users have a greater than novice level of trading knowledge/skill
Time required to maintain something I don't personally use

That's how the system works. It's not designed to trade intraday. Maybe I'll build one to do that one day.

Yes, but the advantage of the T+3 was you had a direction. As it is now, you are day trading, but not knowing where its going during the day... You can't assume you will be in NUGT and not worry about the 20% intra-day fluctuations. You are just as likely to call for a hold NUGT as a buy DUST at EOD.

Don't worry about me, I am just testing it... Not used to blind trades, but I will work on it... probably using Crown Royal...

 

[userque]

Yes, but the advantage of the T+3 was you had a direction. As it is now, you are day trading, but not knowing where its going during the day... You can't assume you will be in NUGT and not worry about the 20% intra-day fluctuations. You are just as likely to call for a hold NUGT as a buy DUST at EOD.

Don't worry about me, I am just testing it... Not used to blind trades, but I will work on it... probably using Crown Royal...

Ok ok...you win. I'll bring back the T+3

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Ok ok...you win. I'll bring back the T+3

Not what I meant, just pointing out that not having a direction of the trade UNLESS the point is to day trade... swing trading assumes a direction, whether that is one day (minimum) or weeks... I guess it just depends on the objective of the system.

 

[userque]

Not what I meant, just pointing out that not having a direction of the trade UNLESS the point is to day trade... swing trading assumes a direction, whether that is one day (minimum) or weeks... I guess it just depends on the objective of the system.

So, you're saying you don't need the T+3 posted?

Suppose the objective is to swing trade.
You go long on day one; expecting to be in the trade for four days.
On day two, your system indicates that the market reversed.
Do you go short, even though that is a "day trade?"
Or do you stay long regardless of what your system is telling you...because you want to swing trade?

The two approaches don't have to be mutually exclusive. You can swing and day trade.

My objective is to day trade chop; and swing trade trends.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

So, you're saying you don't need the T+3 posted?

Suppose the objective is to swing trade.
You go long on day one; expecting to be in the trade for four days.
On day two, your system indicates that the market reversed.
Do you go short, even thought that is a "day trade?"
Or do you stay long regardless of what your system is telling you...because you want to swing trade?

Swing trading requires a direction, your current system does not seem to provide it... unless I am missing something. Also, with changes to the system on average 2x a week, that direction could be quickly modified even if it was provided.

A swing trade system would typically look at longer time scales. I honestly do not know what time frame your system uses, because it can be in NUGT overnight, buy DUST at open, and buy NUGT at close... that is day trading, period.

Swing trading, in what I have seen in several systems, is defined by a 2-4 day horizon, but can be much longer if the trend continues.

The two approaches don't have to be mutually exclusive. You can swing and day trade.

While I agree with you in theory, but what is your system... a day trade system? If so, then you probably should put signals like "buy at $44, sell at $47" instead of blindly buying at open without having a clue whether the intent is to sell or hold at the close.

My objective is to day trade chop; and swing trade trends.

Day trade "chop" yet you do not have intraday (aka day trading) objectives (read: levels)

Swing trade "trends" yet you do not give a trend (up, down, sideways, and a timeframe)


I think I made sense... I need to get a brief together for the morning... I will take a look at this after work.

 

[userque]

:blink: LOL. I guess my system is not for everyone.

My system does give direction. ENTER NUGT means the system is long. ENTER DUST means the system is short.

Sideways is chop.

Again, it'll swing 2-4 or more days OR it'll day trade.

It trades at open or close, not intraday. Still a day trade.

It doesn't have predetermined levels at which to enter or exit. Still a day trade. That's just the way I designed it, based upon how I think the markets work. Others may design systems based upon their theories.

See prior (a day or two or so ago) posts regarding updating the system.

Some folks trade with levels; some don't.
Some day trade; some don't.
Some day and swing; some don't
Some update their systems; some don't.

To each, his or her own. Right?


:blink:

Swing trading requires a direction, your current system does not seem to provide it... unless I am missing something. Also, with changes to the system on average 2x a week, that direction could be quickly modified even if it was provided.

A swing trade system would typically look at longer time scales. I honestly do not know what time frame your system uses, because it can be in NUGT overnight, buy DUST at open, and buy NUGT at close... that is day trading, period.

Swing trading, in what I have seen in several systems, is defined by a 2-4 day horizon, but can be much longer if the trend continues.


While I agree with you in theory, but what is your system... a day trade system? If so, then you probably should put signals like "buy at $44, sell at $47" instead of blindly buying at open without having a clue whether the intent is to sell or hold at the close.


Day trade "chop" yet you do not have intraday (aka day trading) objectives (read: levels)

Swing trade "trends" yet you do not give a trend (up, down, sideways, and a timeframe)


I think I made sense... I need to get a brief together for the morning... I will take a look at this after work.

 

[Steiner]

Initially, I liked the T+3 data for the same reasons previously mentioned. I thought it would give me a better idea of what to prepare for at COB. However, on several occasions your daily calls would go against what was previously mentioned on the T+3 calls (yes, I know they are intended to be different) but then you would update the T+3 call and it would be different than the previous day. Don't get me wrong, I realize things change as new data comes in but I just began to realize the T+3 calls really weren't dependable for giving me much of a forward look so I just ignored them. Now if these changes in the T+3 system were driven more by changes to the software code and not the raw input data, then I would really like the T+3 data assuming in due time the changes to the software will settle down. Anything that would give me a more advanced notice of the plan for the end of the day would be helpful. Looking for your EOD calls 10 minutes before closing time and then trying to implement those calls can get a little tricky.

As far as swing vs day trades, I think I prefer the day moves on these particular items. As volatile as this stuff is I'm not sure I could stomach how far it can go in the wrong direction for more than a day or two.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Understood, good luck.

 

[userque]

Initially, I liked the T+3 data for the same reasons previously mentioned. I thought it would give me a better idea of what to prepare for at COB. However, on several occasions your daily calls would go against what was previously mentioned on the T+3 calls (yes, I know they are intended to be different) but then you would update the T+3 call and it would be different than the previous day. Don't get me wrong, I realize things change as new data comes in but I just began to realize the T+3 calls really weren't dependable for giving me much of a forward look so I just ignored them. Now if these changes in the T+3 system were driven more by changes to the software code and not the raw input data, then I would really like the T+3 data assuming in due time the changes to the software will settle down. Anything that would give me a more advanced notice of the plan for the end of the day would be helpful. Looking for your EOD calls 10 minutes before closing time and then trying to implement those calls can get a little tricky.

As far as swing vs day trades, I think I prefer the day moves on these particular items. As volatile as this stuff is I'm not sure I could stomach how far it can go in the wrong direction for more than a day or two.

Well reasoned response.

I'll give technical replies re: T+3 and '10 mins. before close' after the close.

 

[userque]

FOR 10-22-15 AT CLOSE:
CASH

* Had to restart optimization again. No time to generate a forecast for the CLOSE.




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