US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

[FireWeatherMet]

Re: * US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

Norm,
Turn off the AM radio...take a chill, check out the price of gas ($1.30 to $1.70 per gal) which is keeping everything pretty cheap, even those unaffordable off-season tomatoes (they'll be even cheaper in a few months). You'll be OK. We're all doing much better with these prices than when gas was $4/gal in 2008.

Smoke and mirrors folks, Cookin' Da Books, how much does hamburger cost...

Smoke and mirrors folks, Cookin' Da Books, have you bought a Ribeye lately?

Smoke and mirrors folks, Cookin' Da Books, how much is a pair of Blue jeans...

Smoke and mirrors folks, Cookin' Da Books, Tomatoes are out of the question...

Smoke and mirrors folks, Cookin' Da Books, When will the ludicrous crap stop?

My friend...only you have the answer to that question.
Perhaps when you turn off the AM radio, listen to some soft music...go for a peaceful walk to the store and enjoy all the low prices.:smile:

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Re: * US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

That's Warrens way of saying:
"I know that FWM's large number of positive economic indicators...which are the strongest Bureau of Labor Statistics measuring tools we have...point to a steady US economic growth pattern over the past 7 years"
"I don't have any real facts to contradict it...but this red beverage prevents my from admitting it".

 

[Warrenlm]

 

[FireWeatherMet]

U.S. incomes are finally growing

"The missing piece from the economic recovery has finally materialized."

"Median household income, adjusted for inflation, is now higher than it was before the recession that began at the end of 2007, according to new data published by Sentier Research."
"Despite widespread worries of another recession, data on jobs and income show that ordinary workers are increasingly better off. Famed billionaire businessman Warren Buffett said in his latest annual letter that “America’s economic magic remains alive and well." The numbers back him up."

U.S. incomes are finally growing - Yahoo Finance

 

[FireWeatherMet]

It's a huge morning for the US economy


Good morning!

It has been a huge morning for the US economy as the housing market and the health of US consumers is in focus.
Here's what we learned:

• The housing market is solid.
• Consumers are a little concerned about the stock market.
• Home Depot is a monster.

The homebuilding giant Toll Brothers also reported earnings before the bell Tuesday morning that beat expectations, with revenue totaling $928.6 million for its fiscal first quarter, topping expectations for $910.8 million.
The company's average home price in the quarter hit $873,500.
But the real takeaway from the company's report was its commentary on both the labor market and the US economy in general. And it was almost all bullish.


US housing market update - Business Insider

 

[FireWeatherMet]

You can see here that we don't always fall in lock step with the global economy.

Coming out of the "Great Recession", the US GDP grew steadily and faster than Europe and Japan...both of whom went austerity first before changing course.
You have to give credit where credit is due...and this is why with China on the downswing, the US remains in the strongest position economically in the world and unlike China, the trend is our friend.

Next recession will not be nearly as bad here as in other countries, thanks to us being on more solid ground today than the rest of the industrialized world.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

The New Frontier of Negative Interest Rates - Bloomberg View

Interesting discussion of the small things that people actually do in their daily lives under a negative interest rate environment, which is historically representative of an economy firing on all cylinders.

Yes interesting link.
But irrelevant to this thread because it talks primarily about European Central banks and the threat of negative interest rates.
This thread is about the US economy...not the EU...not Japan.

If you remember, the EU and the US have been, and continue to be on opposite ends of the interest rate and QE see-saw. When the Great Recession started, the EU thought that austerity was needed immediately...whereas Team Bernanke/Summers/Geithner, remembering the past lessons of the Great Depression, felt massive Stimulus, QE and low interest rates were needed first, then followed by a slow unwinding. So far history has proven that route to be correct. Europe realized its mistake too late, their economies continued to constrict, while ours grew. Finally Draghi reversed course a a few years ago, but that put the EU years behind us.

For the US, we've had (in case you missed the news) an interest rate HIKE. That...is the sign of a healthier economy. If anything, many economists felt the Fed should have hiked a year ago.

 

[Warrenlm]

Interview with Stockman a few days ago. At 2:40 he is asked what does he see that other economists don't see.

After a few seconds of a lead in his answer he gets into the specific information that leads him to see the R word. David Stockman: Markets Going to Be Mauled by Bear - Bloomberg Business

 

[Warrenlm]

The New Frontier of Negative Interest Rates - Bloomberg View

Interesting discussion of the small things that people actually do in their daily lives under a negative interest rate environment, which is historically representative of an economy firing on all cylinders.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Record Number of Consecutive Months of Private Sector Job Growth.
14 Million New jobs Created Past 6 years.



That Is Responsible for Unemployment (calculated the same way as the past 50 years) Approaching 20 Year Lows.


That Is Why New Unemployment Claims Are At 20 year Lows.

 

[tsptalk]

Re: * US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

There is a copy of this entire thread in the politics area if politics must be brought into it. I know it can be tough to talk about the economy, good or bad, without inserting some politics. So if you must, here's the political version...

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/politics/24521-*-us-economy-firing-all-cylinders.html

Thanks.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Re: * US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

10 Charts On Why The Global Economy Is Struggling

Firedog,
You get no argument from me when it comes to the Global Economy. But this thread is the "US Economy"

Even though we are more connected to a degree, our economy is in better shape than Germany, France, and Japan. MUCH BETTER than Russia and our trend is MUCH BETTER than China.

Otherwise, nice link. Definitely don't invest in the -I- Fund right now.

 

[burrocrat]

Re: * US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

without getting into all the pretty charts and details, trying to convince somebody that the economy is firing on all cylinders is like trying to sell bikinis to eskimos, or mittens in the sahara desert.

 

[Firedog]

re: * US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

10 Charts On Why The Global Economy Is Struggling

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Looks like the US economy is starting to fire on all (or at least most) cylinders.
Unemployment rate falls to 4.9%.

Despite some claims that does not represent the labor force...it actually seems to be doing just that, as companies are finding it harder to find employees in a dwindling worker pool, forcing them to raise salaries to attract new workers. Basically, anyone who wants a job, can get a job, and now salaries are going up, proof of a constricting job market. Seems that the only reason the labor force hasn't gotten larger is the mathematics of more retirees over new younger workers, a trend that began in the 90's.

Wages Rise as U.S. Unemployment Rate Falls Below 5%.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/06/b...ployment-january-fed-interest-rates.html?_r=1