US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

[FireWeatherMet]

Looks like the US economy is starting to fire on all (or at least most) cylinders.
Unemployment rate falls to 4.9%.

Despite some claims that does not represent the labor force...it actually seems to be doing just that, as companies are finding it harder to find employees in a dwindling worker pool, forcing them to raise salaries to attract new workers. Basically, anyone who wants a job, can get a job, and now salaries are going up, proof of a constricting job market. Seems that the only reason the labor force hasn't gotten larger is the mathematics of more retirees over new younger workers, a trend that began in the 90's.

Wages Rise as U.S. Unemployment Rate Falls Below 5%.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/06/b...ployment-january-fed-interest-rates.html?_r=1

 

[Firedog]

re: * US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

10 Charts On Why The Global Economy Is Struggling

 

[burrocrat]

Re: * US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

without getting into all the pretty charts and details, trying to convince somebody that the economy is firing on all cylinders is like trying to sell bikinis to eskimos, or mittens in the sahara desert.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Re: * US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

10 Charts On Why The Global Economy Is Struggling

Firedog,
You get no argument from me when it comes to the Global Economy. But this thread is the "US Economy"

Even though we are more connected to a degree, our economy is in better shape than Germany, France, and Japan. MUCH BETTER than Russia and our trend is MUCH BETTER than China.

Otherwise, nice link. Definitely don't invest in the -I- Fund right now.

 

[tsptalk]

Re: * US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

There is a copy of this entire thread in the politics area if politics must be brought into it. I know it can be tough to talk about the economy, good or bad, without inserting some politics. So if you must, here's the political version...

http://www.tsptalk.com/mb/politics/24521-*-us-economy-firing-all-cylinders.html

Thanks.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Record Number of Consecutive Months of Private Sector Job Growth.
14 Million New jobs Created Past 6 years.



That Is Responsible for Unemployment (calculated the same way as the past 50 years) Approaching 20 Year Lows.


That Is Why New Unemployment Claims Are At 20 year Lows.

 

[Warrenlm]

The New Frontier of Negative Interest Rates - Bloomberg View

Interesting discussion of the small things that people actually do in their daily lives under a negative interest rate environment, which is historically representative of an economy firing on all cylinders.

 

[Warrenlm]

Interview with Stockman a few days ago. At 2:40 he is asked what does he see that other economists don't see.

After a few seconds of a lead in his answer he gets into the specific information that leads him to see the R word. David Stockman: Markets Going to Be Mauled by Bear - Bloomberg Business

 

[FireWeatherMet]

The New Frontier of Negative Interest Rates - Bloomberg View

Interesting discussion of the small things that people actually do in their daily lives under a negative interest rate environment, which is historically representative of an economy firing on all cylinders.

Yes interesting link.
But irrelevant to this thread because it talks primarily about European Central banks and the threat of negative interest rates.
This thread is about the US economy...not the EU...not Japan.

If you remember, the EU and the US have been, and continue to be on opposite ends of the interest rate and QE see-saw. When the Great Recession started, the EU thought that austerity was needed immediately...whereas Team Bernanke/Summers/Geithner, remembering the past lessons of the Great Depression, felt massive Stimulus, QE and low interest rates were needed first, then followed by a slow unwinding. So far history has proven that route to be correct. Europe realized its mistake too late, their economies continued to constrict, while ours grew. Finally Draghi reversed course a a few years ago, but that put the EU years behind us.

For the US, we've had (in case you missed the news) an interest rate HIKE. That...is the sign of a healthier economy. If anything, many economists felt the Fed should have hiked a year ago.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

You can see here that we don't always fall in lock step with the global economy.

Coming out of the "Great Recession", the US GDP grew steadily and faster than Europe and Japan...both of whom went austerity first before changing course.
You have to give credit where credit is due...and this is why with China on the downswing, the US remains in the strongest position economically in the world and unlike China, the trend is our friend.

Next recession will not be nearly as bad here as in other countries, thanks to us being on more solid ground today than the rest of the industrialized world.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

It's a huge morning for the US economy


Good morning!

It has been a huge morning for the US economy as the housing market and the health of US consumers is in focus.
Here's what we learned:

• The housing market is solid.
• Consumers are a little concerned about the stock market.
• Home Depot is a monster.

The homebuilding giant Toll Brothers also reported earnings before the bell Tuesday morning that beat expectations, with revenue totaling $928.6 million for its fiscal first quarter, topping expectations for $910.8 million.
The company's average home price in the quarter hit $873,500.
But the real takeaway from the company's report was its commentary on both the labor market and the US economy in general. And it was almost all bullish.


US housing market update - Business Insider

 

[FireWeatherMet]

U.S. incomes are finally growing

"The missing piece from the economic recovery has finally materialized."

"Median household income, adjusted for inflation, is now higher than it was before the recession that began at the end of 2007, according to new data published by Sentier Research."
"Despite widespread worries of another recession, data on jobs and income show that ordinary workers are increasingly better off. Famed billionaire businessman Warren Buffett said in his latest annual letter that “America’s economic magic remains alive and well." The numbers back him up."

U.S. incomes are finally growing - Yahoo Finance

 

[Warrenlm]

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Re: * US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

That's Warrens way of saying:
"I know that FWM's large number of positive economic indicators...which are the strongest Bureau of Labor Statistics measuring tools we have...point to a steady US economic growth pattern over the past 7 years"
"I don't have any real facts to contradict it...but this red beverage prevents my from admitting it".

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Re: * US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

Norm,
Turn off the AM radio...take a chill, check out the price of gas ($1.30 to $1.70 per gal) which is keeping everything pretty cheap, even those unaffordable off-season tomatoes (they'll be even cheaper in a few months). You'll be OK. We're all doing much better with these prices than when gas was $4/gal in 2008.

Smoke and mirrors folks, Cookin' Da Books, how much does hamburger cost...

Smoke and mirrors folks, Cookin' Da Books, have you bought a Ribeye lately?

Smoke and mirrors folks, Cookin' Da Books, how much is a pair of Blue jeans...

Smoke and mirrors folks, Cookin' Da Books, Tomatoes are out of the question...

Smoke and mirrors folks, Cookin' Da Books, When will the ludicrous crap stop?

My friend...only you have the answer to that question.
Perhaps when you turn off the AM radio, listen to some soft music...go for a peaceful walk to the store and enjoy all the low prices.:smile:

 

[pmaloney]

Re: * US Economy Firing on All Cylinders

Yeah and with the price of gas so cheap you can afford to drive out to the country and pick it off the vine unless you want to drive to Mexico! :smile:

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Yup, just firing away...

US construction spending increases 1.5 percent in January.
Biggest gain in 8 months

US construction spending up 1.5 percent in January - Yahoo Finance

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

Interesting... how did this end up back in the main threads??

won't be here for long... too much kool-aide being drank by the Sheeple.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Everyone knows that Obama tried to keep Gas and Oil prices to promote Green Energy, another failure to add to his list of wanting to.

In your zeal to say...I'm not sure...what was it you were trying to say? Keep oil what?
Oil has been going down for quite some time, and the US has produced record amounts of oil the past few years...are you saying that an administration tried to make more domestic oil, making it cheaper so that we would go to green energy?

I think everyone would agree that our increased production, combined with OPEC increased production over the years, have exceeded our consumption for so long, that its taken up all of our storage. Big Oil and OPEC typically manipulate the price of oil to their benefit (and our detriment) but at some point, the law of supply and demand does catch up with them. The longer they try to artificially manipulate the law of supply and demand (storing oil under every nook and cranny) the stronger the law kicks them in the a$$ets when it catches up with them. That's what we are seeing now with the recent oil bottom of near $25/barrel.

You're making about as much sense as your strange "price of tomatoes, steaks and jeans going thru the roof" example a few posts down.

Sometimes...when you have nothing to say...its best to just...have nothing to say.
Or man up, and admit when you're wrong...because we all are at times...admitting it builds character.

Interesting... how did this end up back in the main threads??

won't be here for long... too much kool-aide being drank by the Sheeple.

It was originally meant for mainstream, but since people like you and a few others had nothing substantial to add to the discussion, you ended up going to your "political brainwashed dogma".
There is a "*"version also (Tom split them in two) so since you RMI, have nothing intellectual to offer here, go to the other one and spew your brainwashed ideological worthless nonsense to your hearts content.

You might be totally wrong, but you will feel better about yourself. :smile:

But if you want to talk about Bureau of Labor statistics...real ways (not imaginary) of how we measure our economy...then stay here...and try to keep up.

 

[FireWeatherMet]

Worth a view...a reality check.

Fading recession fears bring out the bulls



Fading recession fears bring out the bulls