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Or you can now use TapaTalk again!Uptrend's Account Talk
- Thread starter Uptrend
- Start date
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Well thanks for the harbor
:toung:
It sounds like the perfect place to be ....
Would have to strip off all the grounded beliefs and thoughts that have largely formed my existence ... and be open and believing as never before .... but who knows it may actually be a harbor.
As for THE CHARTS - you are the expert and likely read them well.
Going simply with 'my Gut' - I believe we have risen too far and too fast for this to move forward without Consolidation. So I see it as needed Consolidation and think 775 is right on target. Let's hope that occurs on 5/1/09 and that is a day I can move to High Risk.
Uptrend
Well-known member
The market is playing tug of war today. We put in a spx lower 860 high yesterday after a prior 875 high last Friday. More importantly the market broke below an uptrending ascending wedge, which is bearish. The market slammed into an important downtrend line on the DOW the last few days and cannot get above it. And there are triple divergences on the charts. The market makers are not stupid; they know quite a few folks know technical analysis, so they will pull and push the market a little longer. But the breakdown can't hide - as it is on any chart you wish to view.
As for timeframe, on March 10 the market started to rally and made the high on April 17 - 28 trading days later. Based on past bear markets (ie 1938 tracks well so far), if spx 666 was the low, the market rallies heavy off the lows and then falls about 50% or 12 percent and that comes about 30 days later within about a 12 trading day timeframe. So I expect the market to retrace now and bottom near May 4-6. This lines up with the Chrysler announcement of whether Fiat will buy parts of the company, or if they will go bankrupt (decision required by May 1), and the bank stress tests results (due out May 4).
Steadygain
TSP Elite
Thanks a million Uptrend !!!
We're thinking the same thing it sounds like.
The REAL BOTTOM was hit last month
A consolidation to May 4-6 is expected
BULL is here to stay and this is the beginning stages of Volatility
Mcqlives
Active member
Thanks for the response, Uptrend. I was guessing on about the same time frame but was hoping to make use of my last transfer to get back in next week. I wanted to make note of something that I follow off and on. The volatility in the currency markets have been extreme since last fall but have recently begun to level back off. This is a great sign of financial stabilization and could mean the start of a great bull.
I too think that we have a little while longer for some pulls and pushes but I look forward to a near continuous bull in the near future.
DCguy
Member
Retest coming?
Commentary: New bull markets often retest the preceding bear markets' lows
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...5-BC7B-001734EB1E80}&dist=TNMostRead#comments
That's the big debate currently, of course -- with a lot apparently riding on the right answer. But what if it doesn't make that much of a difference?
I ask because new bull markets often retest the lows of the bear markets that preceded them. That means that, even if a new bull market is now underway, it is not necessarily essential that you immediately increase your equity exposure.
Consider what happened after the 2000-2002 bear market came to an end on Oct. 9, 2002, at the 7,286 level on the Dow Jones Industrial Average 7,957.06, +70.49, +0.9%) . Over the next 49 calendar days, the Dow turned in a 23% rally. That's remarkably similar to the current rally, which as of Thursday night is 45 days old and in which the Dow has risen 22%.
But, following that 49-day rally in 2002, the Dow declined for a few months, in the process setting up a retest of its Oct. 9 low. By the subsequent March 11, for example, the Dow stood at 7,524, just 3.3% above the bear market low.
If the 2002-2003 script were to be followed today, the Dow would fall back in coming weeks to the 6,763 level.
Too much should not be made of the experience following the October 2002 low, of course, since it constitutes just one data point. But it is consistent with what's happened at the early stages of many other bull markets as well.
To document this, I analyzed past bull markets, using the definition employed by Ned Davis Research, the institutional research firm. According to that definition, a bull market occurs whenever there is a 30% rise in the stock market over a 50-calendar-day period or a 13% rise after 155 calendar days. Using this definition, the firm calculates that there have been 33 bull markets in the U.S. since 1900.
I first determined where the stock market stood 45 days into each of these bull markets. I then calculated the extent of the market's drop from that level to its lowest point over the subsequent six months. In more than half the cases (19 of 33, to be exact) the percentage difference between that retest low and the previous bear-market low was in the single digits.
Note carefully that this sample of 33 past bull markets was consciously selected to contain only those situations in which the market survived its retest. But, even so, the market in more than half the cases retreated to within shouting distance of its previous bear market low.
The bottom line?
Even if the train has left the station, there's still a good chance that it will return to pick up more passengers.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/sto...-6A71-4295-BC7B-001734EB1E80}&dist=TNMostRead
Uptrend
Well-known member
DCguy
Thanks for the info: sure this may happen, but a retest of the lows is not really new news. Almost all individual stocks retest after a low. The questions is - is this a real retest now or just a partial retracement, a new rally sometime in May and then a big fall during the first part of the summer? Right now we don't even know if we have seen the bottom, so we don't know if we have a basis to do a retest. It all depends how the banks play out, how deflation plays out, how the administration lies and gimmicks to prop up the financials and the markets play out, how the auto makers restructuring plays out, and how the foreign economies play out. A basket of what if's.
The short-term price pattern suggests a test to 777 is coming, but we don't know with any confidence if a test to spx 550 is coming. But it is still in play on a larger downtrending bear channel chart.
BYW, I find it curious that many on the TSP Auto-Tracker are currently invested in C, S, and I, including about half in the top 20. I see this as a contrarian indicator. Also the markets have rallied for 7 weeks, so a rest is in order, but that does not necessarily mean a "retest" anytime soon. All we can say is that perhaps a short-term top is in and some retracement is in progress. I think Mike Hulbert is getting ahead of the game. Time will tell.
Uptrend
Well-known member
This market has charged ahead. But it appears toppy to me.
View attachment 6236
A line drawn from the previous low often points to the next high, as seen with the purple line. You can see where it goes through the horizontal and angular pivot point just above spx 825. This level will be an important resistance point on the way down. We see a negative divergence with volume (going down while prices are rising) and a negative divergence on the MACD histogram as well. The stochastic may be forming a bearish cross. If the market drops lower tomorrow, then we will have a bearish shooting star last 3 day candlestick pattern. This all means that buying pressure is subsiding, and a reversal may be in order. However, this market has fooled me this month, so will patiently wait and see what develops. The market still has not violated the current upsloping trading channel, but as you can see is slamming into horizontal resistance and upper bollinger band.
I have no clue how delaying the bank stress test results for another week will affect the market, but I am thinking negative. After all, the delay just means that the banks and Fed are cooking up logic to soft peddle the weak banks. Suspecion should lead to fear and fear should lead to selling the financials.Last edited:
Uptrend
Well-known member
Spx was negative, and came back to 877 in last 5 minutes of trading. And FDIC released a new bank failure (Silverton Bank Atlanta GA) 5 minutes after the close. Sure looks like market manipulation by gov PPT. They know traders think of spx 875 as a critical level. IMO this is a fake-out supported by the fearfull gov. There is no reason to believe we are still going up.
BKX ended negative, and appears to have made a bearish 3 day shooting star. IMO the stress test results will hurt financials.
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html
Bullitt
Well-known member
Why do you think that this bank going under will make a difference when there have already been some 30 banks taken over in 2009 alone? We-Small Fry Investors- may not have known that the bank was being taken over until 5 minutes after the close, but the ones who move the market have surely known for days. I'm sure Goldman knew about before the close.Last edited:
Uptrend
Well-known member
Time to take off the rose colored glasses.
The correction is coming sooner than you think. Look at the spx chart. It went up steep at first off the March lows, then at a more shallow angle and now is topping with a possible M pattern or H &S. Not healthy. Next shoe to drop may be commercial real estate because it lags and tracks the unemploymnet rate. Read here.
http://www.fxstreet.com/fundamental/analysis-reports/market-comment/2009-05-01.html
Uptrend
Well-known member
Uptrend
Well-known member
Here is my take on the market today:
"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you can not fool all of the people all of the time" Abraham Lincoln
The ADP numbers are wrong most of the time. BAC needs 35 billion -don't I feel great!
There are many divergences on the charts. The spx penetrated the 912 pivot this AM and then fell back fast. 912 is now resistance. IMO this completes the short-term top and we retrace from here. It fits the EWT and price, pattern and time.Similar threads
