tsptalk's Market Talk

[Chulke]

So now if it closes below yesterdays low...Is it going to drop precipitously further? Or is this just a head fake to trigger the stop losses in the market...the proverbial shaking of the tree? Which means another good buying opportunity!!

Secondly...as a result of the economic growth if the fed starts curbing it's bond buying program to let interest rates start rising are we going to have a slow and steady march of the F fund back from the brink?


What ya think?


Cheers!

 

[tsptalk]

If the Fed starts raising rates the F-Fund will be toast.

As far as stocks go, with the Fed pumping, I doubt we get much more than a 5% to 10% correction, if that. But I would welcome that.

 

[tsptalk]

The Dow hits 16,000 this morning. The S&P 500 hits 1,800. And the Nasdaq is less than 10-points from 4,000. Is this the target? Is this what the big / smart money has been waiting for? It may be the headlines in tomorrow's paper and that might wake up some non-believers and give the big / smart money their opportunity to sell without making too much noise. Just a hunch.

 

[JimmyJoe]

The Dow hits 16,000 this morning. The S&P 500 hits 1,800. And the Nasdaq is less than 10-points from 4,000. Is this the target? Is this what the big / smart money has been waiting for? It may be the headlines in tomorrow's paper and that might wake up some non-believers and give the big / smart money their opportunity to sell without making too much noise. Just a hunch.

The backstop is the holidays coming up. Why sell when your investments are making money during the holiday buying season. By the time the holidays are over, investors will be way beyond today's pop. SPX 1900 by summer.

 

[tsptalk]

That sounds reasonable. 1,900 would be about a 5% to 6% gain from current levels. But the debt ceiling will be reached again around February 7 so I don't expect it to be a smooth ride. Without some spending cuts, Standard & Poor's and Moody's may have their finger on the downgrade trigger.

 

[tsptalk]

Maximum squeezing at work with 2.5 hours left in the trading day...

 

[tsptalk]

Interesting close. 5 mins to go.

 

[polarbear]

Interesting close, indeed. Saved by the bell, likewise. OK, B&H means buy and hold, but what is the SS? I don't know what that acronym stands for.

 

[Frixxxx]

Interesting close, indeed. Saved by the bell, likewise. OK, B&H means buy and hold, but what is the SS? I don't know what that acronym stands for.

Sentiment Survey....you can see the link on the TSPTalk Home page.

 

[tsptalk]

Crazy day. Looks like it will be an "outside day" (higher high over yesterday, and a lower low), but will it close on the up or downside? Currently it is on the downside, but stock are bouncing sharply off the lows right now...

 

[jkenjohnson]

Crazy day. Looks like it will be an "outside day" (higher high over yesterday, and a lower low), but will it close on the up or downside? Currently it is on the downside, but stock are bouncing sharply off the lows right now...

Same thing as yesterday, bounced off of 1780 support line.

 

[tsptalk]

If the Trannies close in negative territory today, we'll have a negative outside reversal day...

We had one in early Nov. and it led to one sharp, brief down day before rebounding.

 

[tsptalk]

Uh, oh...

But...

 

[jkenjohnson]

Uh, oh...

But...

I was saying a couple of days ago that I was getting nervous. Should have acted on it.

 

[Dutchy]

I'm holding long until month end. Today's move may be knee jerk reaction to budget deal and taper fears..
I don't believe the FED will taper this month and we will rally through year end...

 

[tsptalk]

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

They'll save it, they don't have a choice...

 

[tsptalk]

Looks like a test of the 50-day EMA is inevitable....

Small caps held up well today, but they had been hit the hardest during this pullback. We may have a new downtrend to deal with but if the 50-day EMA holds this IWM small cap ETF could try to test the top of the new descending trading channel. But then what?

 

[tsptalk]

Ah, the good old days are back. The Fed decision is actually moving the market.

The dollar is soaring, bonds are down (yields up) then back again, stocks bouncing around with the Dow tanking initially on the announcement, and now up over 130. Gold went down, then back up. Good times.

 

[tsptalk]

You couldn't throw a rock today without hitting one of CNBC's guests that weren't saying to buy today's dip. :suspicious: They talked about that last down day on the first trading day of the year was in 2008 - but that this is NOT 2008. I doubt most thought 2008 was going to turn into 2008.

Tomorrow (2nd trading day in January) is on average (return-wise and percentage of times being positive) one of the most positive days of the year historically.