tsptalk's Market Talk

[tsptalk]

I am having some second thoughts about this sell (yeah, that usually works out well ). But some new developments this morning (2 from our premiums) has me thinking about keeping some, if not all of my money in stocks for another day or more. One key for me will be if the S&P can see some dip buyers come in and buy this late morning dip. Still thinking.

Cancelling IFT. Still in stocks. Sigh! Negativity is too high to sell for me. My one day trade into stocks may have to turn into a few days.

 

[Bquat]

I am having some second thoughts about this sell (yeah, that usually works out well ). But some new developments this morning (2 from our premiums) has me thinking about keeping some, if not all of my money in stocks for another day or more. One key for me will be if the S&P can see some dip buyers come in and buy this late morning dip. Still thinking.

Well, thanks for the premium heads up but I think this is a false head fake on news from Libya.

 

[JTH]

I wonder, if cherry picking in the 2008 downtrend didn't work for anyone, why would we think it would work now? Do as I say not as I do, I certianly don't want anyone following me into this burning building...

 

[Birchtree]

When I bought the 2008 lows I was using my shot gun - no sense cherry picking in that particular environment. I'm doing essentially the same now - if it stinks I'll buy it.

 

[RealMoneyIssues]

When I bought the 2008 lows I was using my shot gun - no sense cherry picking in that particular environment. I'm doing essentially the same now - if it stinks I'll buy it.

Sure, but I am tired of eating Bear $h!t and would like some Bull manure once in awhile... they both stink, but at least the Bull's smells better...

 

[tsptalk]

I wonder, if cherry picking in the 2008 downtrend didn't work for anyone, why would we think it would work now? Do as I say not as I do, I certianly don't want anyone following me into this burning building...

Except for the daily influence of a major report, I don't pay much attention to economic data since it doesn't seem to help with short-term projections, but I don't see the current situation being nearly as concerning as the 2008 fiasco. Can you tell by today's poll that I was wondering how others felt about this?

I have looked at old charts of prior "h" type patterns and while they seem to break both up and down, they do tend to trade in the trading range of the bottom of the "h" for some time before breaking.

In 2008, we saw a breakdown, but it stayed in the range for about a month...

In 2007 the "h" last about 3 weeks before it broke up (but it was a bull market).

 

[JTH]

Your h-charts point out the prevaling trend is the overal direction of the breakout after the rangebound action is concluded. Because the trend is down, it's safer to assume the breakout will be to the downside, you're smarter than you giver yourself credit for.

 

[tsptalk]

That may be the case (I'm smart j/k) - direction of the break, but my initial point was that the 1125-1200 area could act as a trading range for a few weeks before any significant break.

 

[tsptalk]

Cancelling IFT. Still in stocks. Sigh! Negativity is too high to sell for me. My one day trade into stocks may have to turn into a few days.

When does a last minute change in decision ever work out like that? I will savor this one. Shew! :nuts:

 

[Dutchy]

When does a last minute change in decision ever work out like that? I will savor this one. Shew! :nuts:

Good call for you Tom!! I hope this little bounce holds for all of us ! 4% gained today 10% to go to get back to even GRRR..

 

[MacDaddy]

When does a last minute change in decision ever work out like that? I will savor this one. Shew! :nuts:

I too was torn on what to do, but I stayed the course and was able to take advantage of today's gains. Thanks for the input in my thread, that pretty much convinced me to stay in a little longer.

 

[SteelSaving]

Good call for you Tom!! I hope this little bounce holds for all of us ! 4% gained today 10% to go to get back to even GRRR..

After yesterday I decided to stay too, expecting a one day bounce (not getting premium service). After today I am back above even. Happy day. Locked in some gains and still think there is some room for more but not completely certain.
Seeing the W on my charts now. If it goes like the first leg, tomorrow will be pretty even, then a big shot up. After that, I have no clue. Ben's speech probably won't help matters. Probably headed downward until the great labor day speech by the pres everyone around here is talking about.
After that is anyone's guess, though I expect more of a downward trend.

At that point, I will keep an eye on things. I like to buy low, but how low can we go?

 

[tsptalk]

I too was torn on what to do, but I stayed the course and was able to take advantage of today's gains. Thanks for the input in my thread, that pretty much convinced me to stay in a little longer.

Oh, yeah. I said something about the move coming post-options week. Cool. Glad I could help.

 

[tsptalk]

I posted this under today's blog, but I don't know how many go in and read those comments, so...

This was the reaction I was a little worried about. Of course it's the close that is important, but this intraday failure is not a great sign for the rally.

 

[Scout333]

"This was the reaction I was a little worried about. Of course it's the close that is important, but this intraday failure is not a great sign for the rally."
What is causing all of this negativity? Apple, WB's investment in BAC? Ouch!

 

[Khotso]

I posted this under today's blog, but I don't know how many go in and read those comments, so...

This was the reaction I was a little worried about. Of course it's the close that is important, but this intraday failure is not a great sign for the rally.

I learn a lot from your daily blogs Tom, and sharing real-time examples like this to demonstrate what you were saying really helps. Thanks for taking the time to post!

 

[Intrepid_Timer]

As long as 1160 holds, I think it's a healthy pullback. If there is such a thing.............

 

[clester]

"This was the reaction I was a little worried about. Of course it's the close that is important, but this intraday failure is not a great sign for the rally."
What is causing all of this negativity? Apple, WB's investment in BAC? Ouch!

Apparently , rumors that Germany was getting downgraded.

 

[tsptalk]

I learn a lot from your daily blogs Tom, and sharing real-time examples like this to demonstrate what you were saying really helps. Thanks for taking the time to post!

You're welcome. I'd do it more, but I'm not sure that would help anybody. Most of the time, my guess is as good as yours.

I did decide to sell half my stock funds this morning - going 50% G. I may lighten up further on any rally Friday and/or Monday. If I decide to get back in, I can still be in as early as Sep 2 (which is pre-holiday, -1 on chart).

 

[tsptalk]

I did decide to sell half my stock funds this morning - going 50% G. I may lighten up further on any rally Friday and/or Monday. If I decide to get back in, I can still be in as early as Sep 2 (which is pre-holiday, -1 on chart).

Using today's strengh to add a little more cash. Going 75% G for Monday, although Monday has a strong Ebb pattern. That's why I'm not going 100% G yet. Will probably do so on Monday morning for Tuesday.

In this choppy market it would seem buying sell-offs and selling rallies is the way to play. Unfortunately with 2+ IFT's we can't do too much in our TSP accounts with that.